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Super Bowl picks: Who we like in Chiefs-49ers to win Super Bowl 58

Which team will win the big game?

NFL Commissioner Press Conference Photo by Perry Knotts/Getty Images

The Bleeding Green Nation writers picks are in for Super Bowl LVIII!

The San Francisco 49ers are the betting favorites to beat the Kansas City Chiefs, according to DraftKings Sportsbook. Despite this, a majority of BGN writers are actually betting on the side of Patrick Mahomes/Travis Kelce/Andy Reid/Taylor Swift.

When it comes to the BGN pick standings, John Stolnis has already clinched a win as the overall champion. Congrats to him for preventing my threepeat attempt. But first place in the playoff standings is still on the line.

Super Bowl 2024 Picks


Stolnis: 2-0
Dave: 1-1
Tyler: 1-1
Natan: 1-1
Alexis: 1-1
Community: 0-2
BLG: 0-2
Drew: 0-2
Jonny: 0-2
Joe: 0-2 (no picks)


Stolnis: 189-95
Community: 185-99
BLG: 182-102
Tyler: 173-111
Dave: 172-112
Jonny: 167-117
Alexis: 166-118
Drew: 157-127
Natan: 154-130
Joe: 124-160


Tyler: 9-3
Stolnis: 9-3
Dave: 8-4
Alexis: 7-5
Drew: 6-6
Community: 6-6
BLG: 6-6
Natan: 4-8
Jonny: 2-10
Joe: 0-12



If there is justice in the world, the Chiefs will win. The 49ers are very unlikable whiners. Also, I can’t really live with myself if I bet against the inevitable Patrick Mahomes in this spot. I’d feel much more dumb for doubting him than I will if Brock Purdy proves me wrong.

CHIEFS 28, 49ERS 27.

I discussed my pick in more detail on this week’s edition of TGIFootball for The SB Nation NFL Show:


It feels like the Chiefs are in position to win back-to-back Super Bowls, and despite the 49ers being the more talented team, they probably won’t have the discipline and preparation needed to carry out a victory. San Francisco will have the poor practice field conditions to lean on as an excuse, and if effort was a problem in the NFC Championship game, there’s no reason to think it won’t be an issue against the Chiefs. Plus, Kansas City’s offense is going to make Brock Purdy work for every yard, and Patrick Mahomes will likely pull some herculean feat to boost the offense against a stout 49ers defensive front. Against any other team, I’d be rooting against the Chiefs, but the 49ers bug me, so I’m pulling for KC.


This Super Bowl stinks. The Kansas City Chiefs stink because they beat the Eagles in the Super Bowl last year and there are maniacs online who think that Andy Reid was unfairly run out of town here even though if you were outside then YOU KNOW THAT REID NEEDED TO MOVE ON AN...ok, sorry, I’m back. Where was I? Ah, yes, the Chiefs. They stink and I’m sick of Patrick Mahomes, his stupid voice, and Jake From State Farm.

That being said...I have picked the Chiefs to win the Super Bowl this year because the alternative is the absolutely loathsome San Francisco 49ers. Very rarely has a team gone from “I don’t think about them much at all” to “I need them to lose every game in the most painful way possible” as quickly as the Niners have over the past 14 months. Ever since last year’s NFC Championship Game where the Eagles beat their ass, their fans (and players!) have been whining and complaining and moaning about everything. I have written about sports online for over a decade now and the only time I’ve ever gotten a threat from some random person was when I wrote about the Niners being little babies all offseason.

49ers fans are what the media paints Eagles fans as. They are violent, delusional, and awful to deal with in person or online. Losing this Super Bowl by 100 points isn’t a bad enough fate for them. It’s notable that we haven’t even talked about the players on the team yet, because their fans are just that awful, but there are a bunch of dweebs on the roster too. Brock Purdy is an Old Navy mannequin that was brought to life by a witch who just wanted to watch the world burn and he is only good because of the offense around him. Deebo Samuel is a baby. Chase Young gives as much effort on the average defensive play as you will at work on Monday following this game. George Kittle...seems alright actually.

The Niners should’ve lost to the Packers in the divisional round and they definitely should’ve lost to the Lions in the NFC Championship Game and they still are. Playing on my TV again. I desperately need the Chiefs to stomp a mudhole in them in front of God and everybody so I can listen to them cry all offseason about how things aren’t fair because a better team beat them. It brings me no joy at all to report this, but go Chiefs.


I believe Kyle Shanahan puts to bed years of Super Bowl frustrations with a win Sunday.

San Francisco’s defense isn’t as good as the big names on that side of the roster would suggest but I still don’t trust Kansas City’s offense which again was shutout in the second half of the AFC Championship Game.

On the flip side while the discourse on Purdy has been maddening, he gives SF more than Jimmy G did, earning a pair of comeback wins this postseason. There’s also the glaring issue of Kansas City’s run defense which will face one of the game’s best run-designers in Shanahan.

I don’t trust either head coach’s in-game management but my bonus prediction is Shanahan makes a gutsy call at some point that makes the difference.

San Francisco 27, Kansas City 17.


It has to be the Chiefs. The 49ers are the more talented team. No doubt. Top to bottom the best roster in the NFL this year. But the Chiefs have maybe the best quarterback ever and, at this point, maybe the best Head Coach ever. Kansas City is playing tough, inspired football and won’t make the mistakes that the Lions or Packers made to let the Niners off the hook for slow starts.


They say those who forget history are doomed to repeat it. Last year I scoffed at the idea that Patrick Mahomes could single-handedly put the Chiefs over the Eagles. He did. I’m not making that mistake again.

The Chiefs aren’t perfect, getting shut out in the second half against the Ravens and spending much of the Bills game behind. But with Mahomes they never felt out of it, and they weren’t.

But more than Mahomes, the 49ers come into this game on shaky ground. They were the better team than the Packers, but not significantly so. They weren’t the better team against the Lions, they got lucky. Brock Purdy has looked mortal, their defense can be had, and Kyle Shanahan is going to leave points on the field.

I am taking the Chiefs because I am more confident they will play their best game than I am that the 49ers will play their best game.


It still seems impossible for the Chiefs to win it all after playing so poorly on offense for most of the year. But I’m picking the Chiefs.

I think the gap between Mahomes and Purdy is huge, and I think the Chiefs’ defense under Spags is going to cause Purdy huge problems. I expect a bad pick or two by Purdy and the Chiefs to win. I’ll go for 24-20.


When the playoffs began, one could hardly have argued that the 49ers weren’t the team to beat.

Oh sure, the Ravens handed them their lunch a month ago and have the one-time and likely 2023 MVP under center, but the checkered postseason past of Lamar Jackson and the Ravens was bound to upend their quest for a Super Bowl appearance and, sure enough it did. San Francisco, meanwhile, was far and away the best team in the NFC by the time they clinched the No. 1 seed and appeared destined to reach the Super Bowl.

Well, they did that, but it was hardly easy. They narrowly escaped a massive upset at the hands of the Green Bay Packers at home and should have lost their NFC Championship Game to an inexperienced and doomed Detroit Lions team in a game that will haunt that franchise forever. San Francisco did not cover in either game and looked nothing like the team that ran roughshod over the NFC this year. The defense was porous and, it’s crazy to say, appeared to lack effort during the first half against Detroit.

The Chiefs, meanwhile, entered the playoffs riding a rickety set of wagon wheels, hoping to piece together enough of an offense to make another run. Well, after a frigid 23-7 win over the Dolphins, they had to beat the red-hot Bills in Buffalo and the Ravens in Baltimore, both of which they did, as underdogs in each game. Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid, along with a highly underrated defense that really has carried the team all season long, are on the verge of a third Super Bowl title in five seasons.

The Kansas City defense will have answers for Brock Purdy. The San Francisco defense will have no answers for Patrick Mahomes, even with a receiving corps that is less-than-stellar. Travis Kelce, despite being the only real receiving threat on the field, continues to pile up 100+ yard games in the postseason. I think the same will happen in the Super Bowl.

I’ve got KC 24, SF 17.


Vote for your winner in the poll below.

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Which team will win Super Bowl 58?

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