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NFL Picks Against the Spread: Super Wild Card Weekend Playoff Games

Suggestions for trying to beat the odds.

Philadelphia Eagles v Tampa Bay Buccaneers Photo by Mike Carlson/Getty Images

Before the Super Wild Card Weekend round of the 2024 NFL playoffs kicks off, let’s have some fun by looking at the spreads for this week’s postseason games.

You can CLICK HERE for straight up NFL picks without regard to the spread. You can find all of the NFL betting lines via DraftKings SportsBook.

My overall record so far is 149-115-8. The BGN community is just one game ahead at 150-114-8.

Here are suggestions when trying to beat the odds. Also, don’t forget to check out our weekly picks and previews of every game on The SB Nation NFL Show’s The Look Ahead podcast featuring me, RJ Ochoa, and Stephen Serda.

WILD CARD GAMES

CLEVELAND BROWNS (-2) at HOUSTON TEXANS: The Browns are my Lock Of The Week. Quarterbacks making their first playoff start against a quarterback with previous playoff experience are just 16-35-1 against the spread. A rookie QB hasn’t won a playoff game against a QB with playoff experience since Mark Sanchez last did it against the Marvin Lewis Cincinnati Bengals (0-7 all-time in the playoffs) in 2009. C.J. Stroud is great but history is working against him. January Joe Flacco is also working against him. The Browns’ vibes are simply too good not to take them. PICK: Browns -2

Poll

Which bet do you like more?

This poll is closed

  • 58%
    Browns -2
    (106 votes)
  • 41%
    Texans +2
    (76 votes)
182 votes total Vote Now

MIAMI DOLPHINS at KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-4.5): Tua Tagovailoa in his first-ever playoff start is not beating Patrick Mahomes at Arrowhead. The Dolphins will put up a better fight than some might expected; they can cover the spread. The Chiefs’ offensive struggles could also prevent them from covering. But KC will get the win in a tight game. PICK: Dolphins +4.5

Poll

Which bet do you like more?

This poll is closed

  • 32%
    Dolphins +4.5
    (57 votes)
  • 67%
    Chiefs -4.5
    (117 votes)
174 votes total Vote Now

GREEN BAY PACKERS at DALLAS COWBOYS (-7): The Packers are a young team with hope for the future but they’re just not quite there yet. The Cowboys have been dominant at home. Jordan Love will make this close for a bit before Dallas ultimately pulls away. PICK: Cowboys -7

Poll

Which bet do you like more?

This poll is closed

  • 47%
    Packers +7
    (83 votes)
  • 52%
    Cowboys -7
    (91 votes)
174 votes total Vote Now

LOS ANGELES RAMS at DETROIT LIONS (-3): Feels like everyone wants to take the Rams ... and I get it. They’ve played well. But I just don’t think the 2023 Lions’ journey ends here. They’re finally going to get their first playoff win since January 1992. It’s the Jared Goff revenge game! PICK: Lions -3

Poll

Which bet do you like more?

This poll is closed

  • 41%
    Rams +3
    (68 votes)
  • 58%
    Lions -3
    (94 votes)
162 votes total Vote Now

PITTSBURGH STEELERS at BUFFALO BILLS (-10): The Bills losing this game is as equally likely as them winning the Super Bowl. They’re volatile and unpredictable. I tend to think Mike Tomlin’s side will find a way to muck it up and keep it close, albeit in a loss. PICK: Steelers +10

Poll

Which bet do you like more?

This poll is closed

  • 36%
    Steelers +10
    (58 votes)
  • 63%
    Bills -10
    (100 votes)
158 votes total Vote Now

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (-2.5) at TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS: For the Bucs to be 5-1 in their last six with the Eagles being 1-5 ... and Philly not having A.J. Brown ... this might seem like a disrespectful line to Tampa. But I think it more accurately underlines that they’re just not a very good team. They struggled to beat the Carolina Panthers in a must-win game last weekend. And so I think it’s entirely possible that the Bucs could be even worse than the Eagles on Monday night. I have no faith in Philly, to be clear. No one should. The Birds haven’t done anything recently to earn it. But the Eagles losing on Monday night feels relatively painless compared to likely getting blown out by Dallas or San Fran in the divisional round. And don’t you expect them to not make it easy on you? PICK: Eagles -2.5

Poll

Which bet do you like more?

This poll is closed

  • 52%
    Eagles -2.5
    (102 votes)
  • 47%
    Buccaneers +2.5
    (92 votes)
194 votes total Vote Now

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