NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 1

Before the first Sunday of the 2023 NFL regular season kicks off, let’s have some fun by taking a look at the lines for the Week 1 games.

You can CLICK HERE for straight up NFL picks without regard to the spread. You can find all of the NFL betting lines via DraftKings SportsBook.

My overall record last season was 136-138-10, which was just behind the collective BGN community at 137-137-10.

Here are suggestions when trying to beat the odds. Also, don’t forget to check out our weekly picks and previews of every game on The SB Nation NFL Show’s TGIFootball podcast.

NFL WEEK 1 GAMES

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS at MINNESOTA VIKINGS (-5): The Vikings are due to seriously regress in 2023. But, for all his faults, Kirk Cousins has a track record of being able to beat the bad teams. And the Baker Mayfield-led Bucs are certainly no good. PICK: Vikings -5

HOUSTON TEXANS at BALTIMORE RAVENS (-9.5): Lamar Jackson should still have enough to work with even without Mark Andrews. The Texans might ultimately be pointed in the right direction under DeMeco Ryans. But they deserve no benefit of the doubt until they prove to be any good. PICK: Ravens -9.5

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (-2) at PITTSBURGH STEELERS: Even though Nick Bosa returned to the 49ers, this line has moved in the Steelers’ favor. As it should’ve. The 49ers have bad vibes and Brock Purdy might not be any good. Pittsburgh, meanwhile, could be poised to take a step forward with Kenny Pickett making a leap. Betting against Mike Tomlin as a home underdog is not wise; he’s 14-5-2 against the spread and 13-8 straight-up in those games. I like the Steelers outright. PICK: Steelers +2

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (-4.5) at INDIANAPOLIS COLTS: Everyone has Arizona ending up with the No. 1 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. That much is not difficult to envision. But the Colts are also pretty bad. Anthony Richardson is very much a work in progress. PICK: Jaguars -4.5

CINCINNATI BENGALS (-2) at CLEVELAND BROWNS: Assuming Joe Burrow is truly healthy, the Bengals should win this game. Cleveland’s defense might be for real but Deshaun Watson struggled in the summer. PICK: Bengals -2

ARIZONA CARDINALS at WASHINGTON COMMANDERS (-7): With Dan Snyder gone, this Washington home crowd will be the most juiced it’s been in a long time. If Jonathan Gannon makes me regret picking against him, I’ll take that L. Zero chance I’m giving that fraud the benefit of the doubt, though. PICK: Commanders -7

TENNESSEE TITANS at NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-3): The Titans have one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL. Some rankings project them to be THE worst starting unit up front. Derek Carr should be able to lead the Saints to a comfortable home victory in this scenario. PICK: Saints -3

CAROLINA PANTHERS at ATLANTA FALCONS (-3.5): What if Bryce Young happens to be good from the jump? I’ll lean with him and Frank Reich over Desmond Ridder and Arthur Smith. Even if they don’t win, the Panthers might be able to keep it close and cover. PICK: Panthers +3.5

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (-3.5) at NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS: It’s a little curious that this spread isn’t bigger in Philly’s favor. On paper, at least, there’s a big mismatch here with the Eagles’ pass rush poised to take advantage of the Pats’ shaky offensive line situation. New England’s defense also really struggled with mobile quarterbacks last year and now they’ll be tasked with stopping Jalen Hurts. PICK: Eagles -3.5

MIAMI DOLPHINS at LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (-3): I’m over giving the Chargers the benefit of the doubt. PICK: Dolphins +3

GREEN BAY PACKERS at CHICAGO BEARS (-1): There’s virtually no precedent for Justin Fields to develop into a good passer after being as bad as he’s been thus far. He didn’t exactly look sharp in the preseason. Aaron Rodgers’ departure might prove to be a breath of fresh air for the Packers; no more bad vibes lingering around. PICK: Packers +1

LOS ANGELES RAMS at SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-5): Name a defensive starter for the Rams outside of Aaron Donald. I’ll wait. Then name an offensive starter for the Rams outside of Matthew Stafford (Cooper Kupp does not count since he’s on injured reserve). PICK: Seahawks -5

LAS VEGAS RAIDERS at DENVER BRONCOS (-3.5): Can’t say the Raiders have good vibes given the Chandler Jones situation and offseason weirdness surrounding Jimmy Garoppolo’s health. Also I’m not going with Josh McDaniels over Sean Payton. PICK: Broncos -3.5

DALLAS COWBOYS (-3) at NEW YORK GIANTS: The Cowboys are 11-1 in their last 12 games against the G-Men. The one loss came when Andy Dalton started in place of an injured Dak Prescott. If I’m going to be wrong, I’d rather it result in a Cowboys loss. This game was my Lock Of The Week for TGIFootball. PICK: Cowboys -3

BUFFALO BILLS (-2.5) at NEW YORK JETS: The Bills are going to be very good but I’m not about to entirely count out Aaron Rodgers. Especially when he’s getting points at home. PICK: Jets +2.5