Steve Maltepes, known as “The Philly Godfather,” imparts his gambling wisdom on the Eagles-Chiefs Super Bowl and where the smart money is going. Maltepes is one of the nation’s hottest sports betting experts who appears weekly on national radio and has his own website, thephillygodfather.com
The Line: Eagles minus-1.5/Total: 51
What is the line telling you: When this line opened, the Chiefs were 2.5 favorites, and the smart money immediately fell on the Eagles, which created a 5-point swing to the Eagles being as high as 2.5 favorites. That’s since dropped to 1.5. There is a trend here that the initial line move, which is usually the smart money, has covered the spread in 11 of the past 15 Super Bowl, so the first move trends towards the Eagles covering the spread. The market trend tells you that the first line is the correct line move, so the market quickly adjusted and made the correct move making the Eagles the favorites. The Chiefs are 8-11 against the spread this season. They are the sixth team to reach the Super Bowl with a losing record against the spread. Four of the previous five teams with losing ATS records have lost the Super Bowl. That’s a strong market trend. This trend favors the Chiefs, which will scare bettors on the Eagles. The Chiefs played the 16th toughest schedule in the NFL this past season, and the Eagles played the 31st toughest schedule. In the 13 Super Bowls with the difference in schedule strength being 10 or more places, the team with the tougher schedule is 10-3 straight up in those games and 8-5 against the spread. The only Super Bowl team that played a weaker schedule than the 2022 Eagles was the 2005 Seattle Seahawks that lost 21-10 to the Pittsburgh Steelers in the Super Bowl. If a team plays the tougher schedule, that’s a trend that performs well in the Super Bowl.
Over 1.5 field goals for Chiefs’ kicker Harrison Butker.
What is the line telling you: With the Eagles having arguably the greatest pass rush in NFL history when it comes to sack percentage, the Eagles will be able to stop the Chiefs in the red zone, forcing Kansas City to settle for field goals.
Travis Kelce over 6.5 receptions.
Patrick Mahomes won’t have enough time to get the ball downfield to his outside receivers. The Chiefs will have to move the ball on dink-and-dunk passes. Kelce is also not a bad look for MVP. He’s going to be used a lot.
Dallas Goedert over 4.5 receptions.
The Chiefs’ pass rush is very effective. They’re top-10 in sack percentage, up there with the Eagles. They had over 55 sacks this year, and that will force Jalen Hurts to look for the shorter passes in the midfield.
Darkhorse MVP Miles Sanders and over 60.5 rushing yards.
What is the line telling you: The Eagles will want to keep Mahomes off the field. The Eagles will need to run the ball to win, and Miles Sanders is the key.
Over 24 points combined in the first half.
What is the line telling you: Both teams are going to come out scoring. The Eagles alone have averaged 21 points in the first half all season. With two weeks to prepare, Andy Reid scores 80-percent of the time on the first two drives of the game. If the Eagles win the toss, they’re going to defer giving Andy Reid and the ball. The idea is to jump on the Eagles early and force Jalen Hurts to come from behind, which they have only really had to do once this year, when Jacksonville got out to a 14-0 lead.
Jalen Hurts anytime touchdown -110.
What is the line telling you: It’s been almost guaranteed money the whole season. It’s been a great bet all year.
Josh Sweat first sack of the game 10-to-1 odds.
What is the line telling you: The Chiefs’ offensive line will be keying on Haason Reddick, leaving Sweat one-on-one on the other side. Sweat is fast and can catch Mahomes from behind.
Over .5 interception for Patrick Mahomes.
What is the line telling you: Mahomes has been known to struggle in the Super Bowl and he takes risks Hurts does not take. It’s mind-boggling, because Mahomes is so good during the regular season.
Under 548.5 combined passing yards.
What is the line telling you: Both teams will need to run the ball to win. Mahomes and Chiefs need to keep Hurts and the Eagles’ offense of the field, and the Eagles will need to do the same to the Chiefs.
Joseph Santoliquito is an award-winning sportswriter based in the Philadelphia area who has written features for SI.com, ESPN.com, NFL.com, MLB.com, Deadspin and The Philadelphia Daily News. In 2006, he was nominated for an Emmy Award for a special project piece for ESPN.com called “Love at First Beep.” He is most noted for his award-winning ESPN.com feature on high school wrestler A.J. Detwiler in February 2006, and his breaking story on Carson Wentz for PhillyVoice on January 21, 2019. In 2015, he was elected president of the Boxing Writers Association of America.