NFL Week 11 betting advice: Eagles-Chiefs pick and props

Steve Maltepes, known as “The Philly Godfather,” will impart his gambling wisdom on the Eagles and where the smart money is going on various pro football games each weekend this season. Maltepes is one of the nation’s hottest sports betting experts who appears weekly on national radio and has his own website, www.thephillygodfather.com [thephillygodfather.com].

Philadelphia Eagles (8-1) at Kansas City Chiefs (7-2), 8:15 p.m. Monday

The Line: Chiefs minus-2.5/Total: 45

What is the line telling you:

Monday Night Football is the setting for this game, with the game opening as the Chiefs being 2.5-point favorites, with the total at 45, after it opened at 47. Weather could play a part in this game. The total can drop even lower. Anytime weather plays a factor, the team with the better running game and better defense usually has the advantage. As of right now, the Chiefs defense is ranked No. 5 in the NFL in the opponents-yards-per play metric, and when you compare that to Philadelphia, which ranks No. 19, there is a huge disparity there. The Eagles have had major problems defending the pass. They are one of the worst teams in the league when it comes to yards-per-pass attempt. Currently, the Eagles’ 8-1 record looks great from the outside looking in, but they do have the seventh-best point differential in the NFL. That usually means that they have been better lucky than good. It’s never easy going into Kansas City and beating Andy Reid and the Chiefs at home. With an experienced Super Bowl-winning quarterback like Patrick Mahomes, it’s hard to see the Eagles covering the point spread.

Bottom line: This should be a close game, but the team with the ball last probably wins the game. At 2.5, we like the Chiefs.

Eagles game props

We like all the under props

Jalen Hurts passing yards under 233.5 yards

Under 45/45.5

Under 23.5 in the first half

Travis Kelce anytime touchdown minus-110

Jalen Hurts anytime touchdown plus-120

What is the line telling you:

The Chiefs’ defense is ranked No. 3 in yards-per-pass attempt and No. 5 in opponent-yards-per-play. With that being said, Jalen Hurts passing and the weather could a problem.

AROUND THE NFL

Pittsburgh Steelers (6-3) vs. Cleveland Browns (6-3), 1:00 p.m. Sunday

The Line: Browns minus-1.5/Total: 32.5

What is the line telling you:

The line opened with Cleveland being a 4.5-point favorite with the combined total at 38. Since the news of Deshaun Watson being lost for the season with a shoulder injury, that total dropped to 32 and to Cleveland minus-1.5. The Browns have a Super Bowl-type of defense, and this is a tough call, since Watson wanted to play and the Browns did not want to take the gamble. We have not seen a total as low as 32 in a long, long time. The Steelers have problems, too. They had seven players this week out in practice.

Bottom line: We like the Browns here minus-1.5. Cleveland is the better team and they will be smart to run the ball and limit the turnovers, and its defense win the game. The Steelers have been lucky to reach 6-3, since they have a minus-26 point differential, and Kenny Pickett is not putting any fear into the Browns’ defense.

(Betting lines are subject to change.)

The Philly Godfather can be followed on twitter @Phillygodfather [twitter.com] & his website is www.thephillygodfather.com [thephillygodfather.com]. Watch the best gambling show there is, The Sports Betting Show, 6 pm-8 pm ET live every Thursday available on Jakib YouTube, Action YouTube and Sirius XM channel 159.

Joseph Santoliquito is a hall of fame, award-winning sportswriter based in the Philadelphia area who has written feature stories for SI.com, ESPN.com, NFL.com, MLB.com, Deadspin and The Philadelphia Daily News. In 2006, he was nominated for an Emmy Award for a special project piece for ESPN.com called “Love at First Beep.” He is most noted for his award-winning ESPN.com feature on high school wrestler A.J. Detwiler in February 2006, which appeared on SportsCenter. In 2015, he was elected president of the Boxing Writers Association of America.