Eagles vs. Rams stats preview

Another week, another Eagles stats preview. From now on, I’m working with the wonderful Shane Haffwho podcasts for BGN and has some great designs that will make this article easier to follow. As always, I’ll give you my analysis based on film study and the stats. All stats are from Sports Info Solution, FTN Fantasy, and ESPN.

Eagles Tendencies

More 12 personnel, please! I bang on about it every week but, the numbers don’t lie! The Eagles rank 4th in terms of success rate when using motion, but use it the lowest amount in the league. You could say, that when they use motion it’s very effective! You could also question whether they should use it more. Lastly, I want that RPO rank to keep ticking up and up. The zone running game is still highly effective. The lack of QB runs shows up in the absence of gap scheme runs, we just aren’t seeing much Dart or Counter right now.

No dramatic changes here. It’s fascinating to see the Eagles so low in blitz % when it feels like you see a linebacker blitz about 20 times a game right now. It’s because they are doing a great job dropping an EDGE defender into coverage so only 4 men are still rushing. The numbers also prove what I have thought this year, that the Eagles are better in man than they are in zone right now.

Rams Tendencies

Sean McVay is back! This offense is so fun to watch. 2 numbers clearly stand out here. Firstly, McVay used to run 11 personnel all the time, and he has gone back to his roots. However, he has completely changed the running game! McVay has always been an inside/outside zone guy, and now they lead the lead in gap scheme runs! That is incredible. The Rams' running game is really efficient, and expect to see a lot of gap runs to try and counter the Eagles' 5-man fronts. Honestly, seeing the Rams 1st in gap runs is the most interesting stat I have seen all year.

The Eagles are going to run the ball a lot this weekend. The Rams just philosophically do not want to stack the box and get a safety into the box. This is a two-high light box defense. If the Eagles do want to get the QB run game going, this would be the week to do so. With 2-high safeties, the Eagles should outnumber the Rams in the box if you count the QB as a runner.

Matchups

The Eagles have faced some criticism this year, but we are 4-0 and rank 5th in Total DVOA. That’s pretty good. The Rams' offense is strong and with Cooper Kupp returning, will probably end up a top 5/10 offense this year. However, this Eagles’ offense should be able to get after the Rams’ defense. The Eagles will need to score some points this week.

No dramatic changes here. The Eagles’ offense should be able to run all over this Rams’ defense, and I explained why earlier. I expect a run-heavy game plan this week.

The Rams’ offensive line is not great. Ranking 28th in pass block win rate should have this defensive line excited. I expect the Eagles to get a lot of pressure on Stafford, but he won’t back down, and I expect to see some opportunities for sack fumbles this week.

This is probably the most concerning group of stats for the Eagles. The Eagles’ defense is the opposite of last year, it’s really good on early downs against the run but they are really poor on late downs currently. Last year, offenses couldn’t do anything against the Eagles on 3rd down as their zone-match coverage was just so good. This year is different. If the Rams get into 3rd and medium/long situations, the Eagles will have to improve to get them off the field.

This is another concerning stat for the Eagles. Luckily, the Rams’ defense is very bad in the redzone. But the Eagles are just not a good redzone team right now which is a problem.

Bonus stat via The Athletic Football Podcast which terrifies me... The Rams rank 1st in throws between the hashes (and significantly above the league average). Unfortunately, the Eagles rank 30th in EPA per dropback in throws between the hashes. In simple terms, this means the Rams are going to run a lot of Hi-Lo’s and target the Eagles linebackers in pass coverage. I expect the Rams to throw it a lot this week and the Eagles better be ready.