NFL Week 5 betting advice: Eagles at Rams pick and props

Steve Maltepes, known as “The Philly Godfather,” will impart his gambling wisdom on the Eagles and where the smart money is going on various pro football games each weekend this season. Maltepes is one of the nation’s hottest sports betting experts who appears weekly on national radio and has his own website, www.thephillygodfather.com [thephillygodfather.com].

EAGLES

Philadelphia Eagles (4-0) at Los Angeles Rams (2-2), 4:05 p.m. Sunday

The Line: Eagles minus-4.5/Total: 50

What is the line telling you: Oddsmakers originally implemented the Eagles as minus-5 point road favorites over the Rams back in August. The price actually reached as high as Philly minus-6.5, based on low expectations entering the season of Sean McVay’s team. But since then, opinions in the market have changed and the price has plummeted to as low as Eagles minus-4 in some shops. The Eagles’ defense is having issues this season. It is ranked No. 16 in opponent yards per game, 17 in opponent yards per play, and when you’re about to face a Super Bowl winning quarterback and coach in Stafford and McVay, laying minus-4.5 on the road, it is going to be tough to cover the Vegas point spread and actually win the game. The Rams are the best all-around team, Stafford is the best QB and McVay the best coach the Eagles have faced this season.

Bottom line: Take the Rams plus 4.5.

Eagles game props

Jalen Hurts rushing over 39.5 rushing yards

Matthew Stafford to go over 1.5 TD passes

What is the line telling you:

The combination of the Rams pass rush with Aaron Donald and the fact that LA ranks 24th in opponent yards per rush attempt should lead to Hurts using his legs more in this game to extend drives and pile up a few more first downs. Stafford to go over 1.5 TD passes here, because the Eagles pass defense has struggled against some inferior QBs this season. Their pass defense has had major issues in 2023. The Rams also have some key components coming back this week that should help Stafford. The Rams can put up some yards and could score some points.

AROUND THE NFL

New Orleans Saints (2-2) at New England Patriots (1-3), 1:00 p.m. Sunday

The Line: Patriots minus-1/Total: 40

What is the line telling you: These are two of the worst passing offenses in the NFL squaring off here. Both offenses are ranked No. 24 and No. 29, respectively, in yards per play this season and have had trouble moving the ball and scoring in the Red Zone.

Bottom line: The under is the play here, since both pass defenses ranked in the top 10 in opponent yards per pass attempt, opponent yards per game and opponent yards per play. Add in the expected weather with winds 18-20 MPH and wind gusts much higher than that, and we could see a 16-13 score here.

Dallas Cowboys (3-1) at San Francisco 49ers (4-0), 8:20 p.m. Sunday

The Line: 49ers minus-3.5/Total: 45

What is the line telling you: The Cowboys opened at plus-3.5 for a number of reasons: Revenge from last year’s playoff loss, Cowboys’ defensive coordinator Dan Quinn has owned Kyle Shanahan over the years and knows him extremely well and you’re buying high right now in the market on the 49ers at minus-3.5. The 49ers offensive metrics are skewed, ranked No. 2 in yard per play vs. opponent’s defense, which rank collectively 29th/24th/16th/26th in the opponent yards per play metric on the season, with a combined average ranking of 23.5. The 49ers have had one of the easiest schedules in the NFL when it comes to opponent defenses up to this point. The 49ers’ team opponents points per game (Arizona 25th/Giants 30th/Steelers 23rd/Rams 15th). The Cowboys defense will be the best defense the 49ers will face all season. They are ranked No. 1 in team opponents points per game, No. 7 in opponent yards per play and No. 2 in opponent yards per game.

Bottom line: Take the Dallas Cowboys plus-3.5 is the play, and under 45.5 small.

(Betting lines are subject to change.)

The Philly Godfather can be followed on twitter @Phillygodfather [twitter.com] & his website is www.thephillygodfather.com [thephillygodfather.com]. Watch the best gambling show there is, The Sports Betting Show, 6 pm-8 pm ET live every Thursday available on Jakib YouTube, Action YouTube and Sirius XM channel 159.

On a personal note, thanks to everyone from BGN who came up to congratulate me during hall of fame weekend. It was a pleasure to meet you all.

Joseph Santoliquito is a hall of fame, award-winning sportswriter based in the Philadelphia area who has written feature stories for SI.com, ESPN.com, NFL.com, MLB.com, Deadspin and The Philadelphia Daily News. In 2006, he was nominated for an Emmy Award for a special project piece for ESPN.com called “Love at First Beep.” He is most noted for his award-winning ESPN.com feature on high school wrestler A.J. Detwiler in February 2006, which appeared on SportsCenter. In 2015, he was elected president of the Boxing Writers Association of America.