Since I’ve been writing these stats previews, I have rarely seen the Eagles look like the underdogs. The Dolphins’ offense is frightening. As always, I’m working with my podcast partner Shane Haff who podcasts for BGN and has some great designs that will make this article easier to follow. All stats are from Sports Info Solution, FTN Fantasy, and ESPN.
No major changes here. The Eagles remain very good at using motion but never use it. The really disappointing number for me is ranking 24th in play-action. This offense has such a good run game that they should be able to take advantage of play-action.
It feels like the Eagles blitz so much more than they actually do because they often drop an EDGE defender into coverage when they bring a linebacker. I knew the Eagles had been running a lot more man coverage of late, but I didn’t realize they were running at the 2nd highest rate in the league! That’s wild! This defense is completely different from last year and we just aren’t seeing much of the zone-match stuff that we saw so frequently last year.
This offense. Wow. Just wait until you see all the numbers. The most striking number here is the high rate of 21 personnel and the fact that they use motion on 80% of all snaps! That’s incredibly high. The Eagles play a lot of light boxes and the Dolphins are one of the best running teams against light boxes so keep an eye on that matchup too.
Luckily for the Eagles, the Dolphins’ defense is not that good. They are much better in a two-high shell, and when they stack the box or play single-high they are terrible. There’s a lot of focus on how the Eagles’ defense stops the Dolphins, but I think the Eagles’ offense is going to have to score a lot of points this week.
Now the scary stuff. Every number related to the Dolphins’ offense is extremely good. The Eagles’ offense is good, but they can’t compete with the Dolphins numbers this year. However, the Dolphins’ offense was slowed down by the Buffalo Bills who proved that you can stop it. But I think this is going to be the most difficult test the Eagles’ defense will face all year.
There is some good news. The Dolphins’ rushing offense is a little bit overrated by some metrics because of how many big runs they have had when the game is over. I think the Eagles’ defense can shut down this running game. They are going to have to hope they can keep the Dolphins’ offense 1-dimensional. Additionally, the Dolphins’ defense is not good and is extremely bad against the run. This could be the kind of game where the Eagles have to keep the ball and have some long, slow drives with a heavy emphasis on running the ball.
If you do get this Dolphins’ offense into late downs, they are still the best in the league. The Eagles’ defense has been good on late downs too, and they are far better than the Dolphins’ defense on late downs. So it’s not all bad!
Here is where I feel the most positive about this game. The Eagles are better in the trenches, without a doubt. If the Eagles can force Tua to hold the ball a few times, they will have a great chance of getting some sacks. Also, you can see once again that the Dolphins are not great at stopping the run and this has to be a matchup the Eagles can take advantage of.
Let's end with another stat where the Dolphins are ranked number 1 on offense. The Eagles’ offense cannot kick field goals in this game. They are going to have to be better in the redzone on offense or I don’t think they have a chance of keeping up with the Dolphins’ offense.
This is going to be a tough game, and I wish the Eagles were healthier on defense, but if they can get a few stops I think the offense can absolutely carry them to a win. I expect it to be a tough night for the defense though.