Another week, another Eagles stats preview. From now on, I’m working with the wonderful Shane Haff who podcasts for BGN and has some great designs that will make this article easier to follow. As always, I’ll give you my analysis based on film study and the stats. All stats are from Sports Info Solution, FTN Fantasy, and ESPN.
I'm not going to bore you and talk about this in-depth every week but I still think the Eagles could use more 12 personnel on offense. I can also moan about the fact that the Eagles are really successful when they use motion but they never seem to use it as it doesn't seem like this coaching staff wants to rely on motion. The really positive news for me is that the RPO number has continued to creep up and up every week and is now becoming a big part of the offense like it was last year
The Eagle's defensive structure has stayed very consistent this year. This is very clearly a lightbox two-high shell defense every single week. however, the Eagles do rotate post-snap a lot and this is shown by the MOFC numbers this year. I commented this week in my defensive review that I thought the Eagles struggled when they played single-high and the numbers also back that up. However, this might be the week we see more single-high as the Eagles may want to get a safety into the box against the Jets’ running game.
The Jets’ offense is at their best when they play out of heavy personnel. They are really poor out of 11 and 12 personnel this year, which is obviously a huge problem for them. The numbers reflect that this is just not a good offense. The interesting matchup is how good the Jets are running the ball into light boxes, and how many light boxes the Eagles play. The Eagles will probably keep playing light boxes and trust what has worked so far this year, so this is something to keep an eye on.
The Jets’ defense does play some ‘base’ defense and is really successful when they have 4 linebackers on the field. I wonder if they will match the Eagles' 12 personnel with 4 linebackers, and that could make this a week where the Eagles attempt some deep shots. The Jets’ defense excels in a 7-man box and two-high shell, so the Eagles need to take advantage every time they catch the Jets' defense in single-high coverage. They don’t play a lot of MOFC coverage because they haven’t been very good with it, but the Eagles' running game could force them to drop a safety into the box.
When I came into this, I expected the Jets' defense to be more highly rated. I have heard Jets fans complain about the defense this year, and I can see why. Some of this is likely to do with the offense putting them in bad spots, but the Jets' defense has been disappointing this year. The Eagles' passing numbers keep getting better, and the run game just continues to excel as the best in the league as these numbers show.
These numbers also paint a very similar story to the DVOA rankings, which likely means this data is pretty reliable. We all know it, but the Jets’ passing attack is just terrible. Their defense is good, but not great, and I would be disappointed if the Eagles don’t put up some points in this game.
These numbers are terrifying for Jets fans. If the Eagles can stop the Jets’ offense on early downs, they have a fantastic chance of getting the offense off the field consistently. The really odd number here is the Jets’ defense! I had to look this up a few times to make sure I wasn’t seeing things, but it’s true! The Jets’ defense has really struggled on late downs.
Those of you moaning about the redzone offense might have a fun week this week. The Jets’ defense is outstanding in the redzone. Combined with the light boxes and the lack of success on 3rd down, this Jets’ defense has the look of a classic ‘bend but don’t break’ defense. I do think some of the concerns are overblown as I think the Eagles have been OK in recent weeks with field goals. This might be another week where the Eagles think they can succeed without risking it and going for touchdowns. I am more worried about the Eagles defensive woes in the redzone than the offense, and this is a week where they need to get right. This Jets’ offense is terrible in the redzone.
That’ll do for this week, as always I’ll be back next week with a film review of the game on both sides!