This started off as a comment under the Week 4 Picks article, but it started getting lengthy, so I said f*ck it we'll make a fanpost. Long time, first time sort of thing so bare with me, and if this sucks let me know and I'll piss off. Anyways, here are my picks for Week 4 of the NFL, happy gambling degens.
MIA (+3.5) vs. CIN(-3.5): The Cinci white out jerseys are icy af, but they aren't cold enough to ice out the AFC's last undefeated team. Take the Phins spread.
MIN (-2.5) vs. NO(+2.5): Does 9:30AM count as a primetime game? I'm saying no, so Kirk Cousins should look like a fairly competent QB across the pond. Vikings spread and the Winston INT over if you're feeling UK spicy (literally any seasoning).
CLE (-1.5) vs. ATL (+1.5): The Dirty birds are looking to get it done against the dirtier Browns, but I just don't think their defense can keep up with one of the league's best rushing offenses. The game should probably be close, but not close enough to take Atlanta at +1.5, even if they're 3-0 against the spread. Browns and Watson will probably both rub one out this weekend.
BUF (-3.5) vs. BAL (+3.5): Two of the top QBs in the AFC go head-to-head in what should be a high scoring affair, so slam the over. I just don't see Baltimore holding on in the 4th, especially since we've seen that any amount of time is too much time for Josh Allen. Don’t expect the Ravens to cover.
WAS (+3.5) vs. DAL (-3.5): IMAGINE NOT BEING 3-0 IN THE NFC EAST LMAOOOOOO. Carson's probably still seeing our ghosts in the pocket, so throw an INT in the mix on top of the Dallas spread.
SEA (+4.5) vs. DET (-4.5): I still believe in Geno Smith Supremacy and the Lions' offense is riddled with injury right now. Unless some of their guys start making their back onto the field (Amon-Ra St. Brown is saying he's day-to-day) Seattle should find a way to cover on Sunday.
LAC (-5.5) vs. HOU (+5.5): The Texans stink.
TEN (+3.5) vs. IND (-3.5): The Colts stink.
CHI (+3.5) vs. NYG (-3.5): Fresh off a loss in the Mid-off of the Meadowlands, expect a "bounce back" game that gets the Gmen back to barely above sea level. I like Chicago covering here though. The Giants have yet to win a game by more than 3 points and I don't see them putting together 4 solid quarters against a defense that's generated 5 takeaways in 3 games. Justin Fields is an OSU QB though, so tread lightly.
JAX (+6.5) vs. PHI (-6.5): Dougie P should be receiving a very warm welcome from Philly this weekend, but there will certainly be no love lost on the field. Yes, this game has all the makings for a trap game, but the Eagles appear strictly focused on self improvement and Jalen has been playing out of his mind. Expect the Linc to get loud as the birds roll over "Generational Talent" Trevor Lawrence to put a damper on Jacksonville's early success.
NYJ (+3.5) vs. PIT (-3.5): Zach 'MILF Hunter' Wilson is back and although the Jets are probably going to take it fairly easy with him, he should be a bit more dynamic than Elite Joe Flacco, who's led the team to a 1-2 start. Pair Wilson's return with a rushing attack against one of the worst rush defenses in the league and you have a pretty good case for taking the Jets ML at +150.
ARI (+1.5) vs. CAR (-1.5): Insane that the Cards are "underdogs" going into a game against Baker Mayfield. Side note: CMC just missed his second straight practice Grab the ML at +104 and take it to the bank.
NE (+9.5) vs. GB (-9.5): The Pats are cooked rn, drug enthusiast Aaron Rodgers should have no problem running up the score.
DEN (+2.5) vs. LV (-2.5): Russ looks cooked and not in the way Denver fans were expecting him to, maybe the weed in Colorado is too strong. Carr notches the first win for Vegas Raiders Nation, let's ride!
KC (-1.5) vs. TB (+1.5): System Tom hasn't looked great this season so far and while TB's defense has done a pretty good job at limiting the run, they're coming face-to-face with a team that loves airing it out to their talented receiving core (something TB's defense hasn't really had to face yet). Mahomes has kind of been put on the back burner by a lot of media personalities and analysts, so this feels like the perfect game for him to remind everyone why he's still one of the best in the league. I don’t this game is close, Tampa doesn't cover here.
LA (+1.5) vs. SF (-1.5): Expect this to be a low scoring slug out and take the under. With Trent Williams out, expect Jimmy G to be put under pressure and often as the Rams take advantage of finally playing against a QB that isn't a true dual-threat. I'd take the Rams here.