FanPost

Some numbers for arguing about to get us through the last of the dead zone.

Just some offseason banter...

I really like looking at PFR's adjusted passing statistics because they give a quarterback a rate number in comparison to every other qualifying quarterback that season. I feel like this is a better methodology for evaluating if a quarterback is playing up to expectations than just looking at stats. It can even smooth out some comparisons between eras.

Let's look at some relevant guys, shall we? (A 100 rating is dead average. Anything below 95 is pretty bad, while above 105 is really good. Below 90 is trash, and above 110 is godly.)

First up Carson Wentz:

Wentz had two absolutely stellar years in 2017 and 2018. He wasn't quite as much of a big play machine, but he was significantly more efficient in 2018 compared to 2017. I find this interesting because the historical narrative in my mind was that 2019 was when he learned to be efficient due to a lack of wide receiver options.

As you can see outside of 2020, Wentz has been nearly Rodgers-esque at not throwing interceptions.

Also outside of 2020 it would appear that Wentz did not take as many sacks as we generally malign him for. I think that can be explained by having decent offensive lines, and good escapability. He definitely held the ball too long hunting for the big play when it wasn't there. It just didn't end catastrophically all that often (outside 2020).

Ok, now for Jalen Hurts:


Clearly he was terrible in 4 games as a rookie in 2020. I think all pessimism surrounding Hurts heading into last year was warranted. His passing numbers were below average at least in every category. Straight up cover your eyes awful in completion percentage.

Last year he wasn't bad as a playmaker. Cleaned up his interceptions and sacks a good bit, but he was still really bad relative to other quarterbacks at completion percentage. You can't be 17% worse at completing pass than a league average quarterback and run an efficient offense. It just won't work.


That said there is some reason for optimism that a successful offense can operate around Hurts. His numbers last year are not far off of Lamar Jackson's typical season numbers:


Actually looking at it a second time, Hurts numbers aren't as close to Jackson's as I thought, but you can still see the resemblance in their strengths and weaknesses.


Nicholas Edward Foles:


2013 sure was freaking fun! Ignoring his good numbers from the one game he started in 2016, Foles is the picture of a win with quarterback. Give him a good roster and he cooks. Ask him to elevate an offense and he flounders.

I find it very interesting that both Wentz and Foles had good numbers in 2018. That roster was still really good we just didn't have any freaking cornerbacks.

And finally, Dan Marino:
(Marino vs. Foles is an inside joke on Bleeding Green Discord)



Simply put, the man was a GOD.
By my count across 9 statistical categories over 17 years, Marino was below average compared to his peers 9 times. 7 of those coming in his final season. In his prime Dan Marino was only ever below average compared to his peers 1 time in Y/A+.


That Said...

...

Kiss the ring, sucka.




Bleeding Green Discord: https://discord.gg/k2ZPMYwAS4