Is pick 51 too high for a Center?

Let me start out by saying I loved the Eagles draft. I have been watching a lot of coverage and thoughts on it and started to think of resource allocation in particular at center. I had some time to kill so I started looking some things up and put this together. I went back over the past few (6) years to look at the drafted centers to get an idea where the players are going off the boards. Then I thought lets look at all the projected starters and see where they were drafted and try and grade them somehow to see where the best players came from.

Quick little Wikipedia research project, went back over past few years to see drafted "centers" or at least listed as Centers at time of draft per Wikipedia, and these are the results. I just listed the notable ones or at least the first two drafted each year.

2016- 8 centers taken

1st) Round 1 Pick 18 Ryan Kelly- multiple time pro bowler

2nd) Round 2 Pick 50 Nick Martin- now a backup but initially got a second contract 3 years 33 mil, multiple ankle injuries

3rd) Round 3 Pick 79 Isaac Seumalo- has been our guard and been ok, got a second contract

4th) Round 3 Pick 95 Graham Glasgow- has been mainly a guard, signed 4 year 44 mil contract with Denver

Best taken: Round 1 pick 18 Ryan Kelly

2017- 6 centers taken

1st) Round 2 Pick 58 Ethan Pocic - PFWA all rookie team, career injuries derailed career

2nd) Round 3 Pick 70 Pat Elflein- PFWA all rookie team, multiple injuries moved to guard after 2 seasons

Arguably best taken: Round 6 Pick 199 Chase Roullier: signed 4 year 40 mil contract extension

2018 - 8 centers taken

1st) Round 1 pick 20 Frank Ragnow- second team all pro 2020, pro bowl 2020

2nd) Round 1 Pick 21 Billy Price - PFWA all rookie team, didn’t get second contract

3rd) Round 2 Pick 39 James Daniels- 3 year 26.5 mil second contract

Best taken: Round 1 pick 20 Frank Ragnow

2019- 5 Centers taken

1st) Round 1 Pick 18 Garrett Bradbury- 44 games played 44 started

2nd) Round 2 Pick 44 Elgton Jenkins - played guard and now a tackle not a center, PFWA all rookie team, pro bowl 2020

3rd) Round 2 pick 48 Erik McCoy- PFWA all rookie team, 43 games played 43 started is a center

Arguably best taken: Round 2 pick 48 Erik McCoy

2020- 9 Centers taken

1st) Round 1 Pick 24 Cesar Ruiz- mainly been a right guard

2nd) Round 3 Pick 78 Matt Hennessy- games played 30, games started 19

3rd) Round 3 Pick 83 Lloyd Cushenberry - PFWA all rookie team

4th) Round 4 pick 146 Tyler Biadasz (one the cowboys got from our trade)- nothing special started 21 of 29 games pff grade 64 last year

Arguably best taken: Round 3 Pick 83 Lloyd Cushenberry

2021- 9 centers taken

1st) Round 2 Pick 37 Landon Dickerson- now our guard, looks like he will be good

2nd) Round 2 pick 62 Josh Myers- started until injury not a great pff grade

3rd) Round 2 pick 63 Creed Humphrey- PFWA all rookie team, looks very good

4th) Round 3 Pick 87 Kendrick Green- rough year but had 15 starts, only time will tell like him coming out

5th) Round 3 pick 98 Quinn Meinerz- looks like he will play guard in Denver vs Push Cushenberry

Arguably best taken: Round 2 pick 63 Creed Humphrey

Next project

Starting Center based on Our Lads depth chart (obviously not set in stone)

I used PFF grading, well because it was easy to look up and kind of standardized I know its not perfect (i.e. Ryan Kelly being 56.9 one of the worst grades yet we all know he is very good, was dealing with a personal tragedy)


Arizona Cardinals- Rodney Hudson, Round 2 Pick 55, 3x pro bowl, PFF grade last year 60.9

Atlanta Falcons- Matt Hennessy, Round 3 Pick 78, PFF grade last year 77.1

Baltimore Ravens- Tyler Linderbaum, Round 1 Pick 25, Rookie

Buffalo Bills- Mitch Morse, Round 2 Pick 49, PFF grade last year 63.4

Carolina Panthers- Bradley Bozeman, Round 6 Pick 215, PFF grade last year 73.3

Chicago Bears- Lucas Patrick, UDFA, PFF grade last year 57.2

Cincinnati Bengals- Ted Karras, Round 6 Pick 221, PFF grade last year 72.8

Cleveland Browns- Nick Harris, Round 5 Pick 160, PFF grade last year 70

Dallas Cowboys- Tyler Biadasz, Round 4 Pick 146, PFF grade last year 64.8

Denver Broncos- Lloyd Cushenberry, Round 3 Pick 83, PFF grade last year 64.2

Detroit Lions- Frank Ragnow, Round 1 Pick 20, 1x Pro Bowl, PFF grade last year 86.7

Green Bay Packers- Josh Myers, Round 2 Pick 62, PFF grade last year 58.3

Houston Texans- Justin Britt, Round 2 pick 64, PFF grade last year 63.9

Indianapolis Colts- Ryan Kelly, Round 1 Pick 18, 3x Pro Bowl , PFF grade last year 56.9

Jacksonville Jaguars- Luke Fortner, Round 3 Pick 65, Rookie

Kansas City Chiefs- Creed Humphrey, Round 2 Pick 63, PFF grade last year 91.4

Las Vegas Raiders- Andre James, UDFA, PFF grade last year 64.1

Los Angeles Chargers- Corey Linsley, Round 5 Pick 161, 1x Pro Bowl, PFF grade last year 85.7

Los Angeles Rams- Brian Allen, Round 4 Pick 111, PFF grade last year 80.2

Miami Dolphins- Michael Deiter, Round 3 Pick 78, PFF grade last year 60.6

Minnesota Vikings- Garrett Bradbury, Round 1 Pick 18, PFF grade last year 60.2

New England Patriots- David Andrews, UDFA, PFF grade last year 77.6

New Orleans Saints- Erik McCoy, Round 2 Pick 48, PFF grade last year 63.6

New York Giants- Jon Feliciano, Round 4 Pick 128, PFF grade last year 56.7

New York Jets- Connor McGovern, Round 5 Pick 144, PFF grade last year 75.9

Philadelphia Eagles- Jason Kelce, Round 6 Pick 191, 5x Pro Bowl, PFF grade last year 84.4

Pittsburgh Steelers- Mason Cole, Round 3 Pick 97, PFF grade last year 69.7

San Francisco 49ers- Alex Mack, Round 1 pick 21, 7x Pro Bowl, PFF grade last year 70.4

Seattle Seahawks- Austin Blythe, Round 7 Pick 248, PFF grade last year 60.0

Tampa Bay Bucs- Ryan Jensen, Round 6 Pick 203, 1x Pro Bowl, PFF grade last year 69.9

Tennessee Titans- Ben Jones, Round 4 Pick 99, PFF grade last year 77.8

Washington Commanders- Chase Roullier, Round 6 Pick 199, PFF grade last year 83.7

Then I took the rounds and picks and charted them using 8 for UDFA and pick 260 for UDFA

Then I made some averages here are the results:

Average Round - 3.87

Average Pick - 113.78

Top 10 based on last years PFF grades alone- average round/pick - 4.4/132.6

Bottom 10 based on last years PFF grades alone- average round/pick - 3.2/96.4

Pro Bowl average round/pick 3.1/95 - now the interesting thing is there are 6 total 3 first rounders, one 5th and 2 6th

I also don’t exactly know how to interpret this. If a team did use a top 3 rounds pick on a center even, if they had a down year per PFF, the team may well likely continue to use them at starter as maybe they are still developing or are going to give the pick allocation multiple chances (I.e Jalen Reagor or JJ Arcega-Whiteside or Derek Barnett).

With all of this possibly pointless research I came to one conclusion:

We need Howie to be right and Cam Jurgens to be an above average player. Does that mean round 2 Pick 51 is a poor use of resources if the average is round 3 and pick 113? No if Jurgens can be a solid player for the next 10 years it will have been a great pick. I did like him prior to the draft and was hoping to get him a little later. I guess we will have to wait and see.

I guess I will have to finish this off with a ZB classic …. Statistics can be like bathing suits. What they show is revealing but what they conceal is vital.