Not perfect. But pretty good. You’ll typically take just one loss through 12 games.
In order for the Eagles to advance to 12-1, they’ll need to pick up a road win over the New York Giants. The Birds opened as 6.5-point favorites in their Week 14 matchup, according to DraftKings Sportsbook.
There’s a case to be made the Giants are getting too many points. They’re 7-4-1 after tying with the Washington Commanders on Sunday. They’re also tied (with the Cincinnati Bengals) for THE best record against the spread this season at 9-3.
Only two teams have a higher cover percentage as underdogs this season; the Bengals (2-0) and Baltimore Ravens (1-0-1). The Giants are 7-1 against the spread and 5-2-1 straight up when they have not been favored.
This data supports the notion that Brian Daboll and his coaching staff have the Giants playing their best football in years. From watching New York a number of times this season, they’re not really a team to fear. But they typically do a good job of not beating themselves, which is a big upgrade from how they used to play for a long time.
Daniel Jones has not been the turnover machine he used to be. He’s thrown just two picks in his last nine starts. He also only has two lost fumbles in that stretch. Jones has been aided not only by the Giants’ coaching staff but Saquon Barkley being the centerpiece of their offense.
Then again, Barkley’s efficiency has waned recently. Take a look at these splits:
- First five games: 5.5 yards per carry, 7.9 yards per reception
- Last seven games: 3.6 yards per carry, 4.5 yards per reception
Coming off a game where they were able to shut down Derrick Henry, the Eagles should feel good about their chances of containing Barkley.
The Eagles should also feel good about their starting quarterback, who is arguably the leading candidate for NFL MVP. Jalen Hurts is on fire right now.
Of course, Hurts did have the worst game of his career against the Giants last season. His first-ever start at MetLife Stadium resulted in him completing just 45.2% of his passes for 124 yards (4.0 average), 0 TD, 3 INT, and a 17.5 passer rating. Hurts was significantly better in his second game against the G-Men, which took place in Philly.
Hurts is also an improved on the whole since last year. And he has A.J. Brown to work with now, which is kind of a big deal.
The Eagles should be able to win this game. The Giants probably aren’t quite good as their record indicates. They rank 16th in point differential (at -7 with more points surrendered than scored) and 21st in DVOA.
But, again, they’ve been good as underdogs and division games can be closer than one would expect. The Eagles’ sole loss this season serves as a reminder of that much.
What say you?
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