Stats preview time! This is an interesting one as the Bears are quite a unique team. As always, using Sports Info Solutions. Here we go!
No major changes obviously, but we have seen the RPO numbers drip from 1st in the league to 3rd in the league the past few weeks as the Eagles have run more of a ‘normal’ dropback pass game.
The Eagles' defense managed to stop the run against the Giants without continuing to increase their stacked box % which was a good sign. They have also played a lot more 2-high shells recently which we know is what Jonathan Gannon ideally wants to do.
The number of zone coverage snaps has risen in recent weeks too, which coincides with the Eagles playing more 2-high shells.
The Bears will mix up their personnel packages quite a lot and won’t just stay in 11 like a lot of teams will.
Keep a close eye on motion, play-action, and RPOs this week. The Eagles have been really aggressive downhill against the run in recent weeks so I wonder if the Bears will think they can have some success with play-action.
No surprise here, but the Bears love to get Justin Fields on the move. The Eagles' edge defenders need to be prepared for this.
Well, this is simple. The Bears love to play base personnel. Expect to see some 12 personnel throws from the Eagles' offense.
This feels like a defense that does everything a bit depending on the opponent. I rarely ever see numbers like this. It’s mainly a 2-high defense that doesn’t blitz. It feels a bit bland and whatever it is they are attempting to do, it isn’t working, as you will see in a bit...
Eagles Offense vs. Bears Defense
This is the biggest mismatch that I have seen since I started doing this column this year. No game in the NFL is easy, but let’s be honest, the Eagles' offense should have a huge game against this defense. The Bears’ defense doesn’t do anything well except get a few takeaways. I expect the Eagles to be able to run or pass on this defense but I have a feeling they are going to air it out to AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith early on and test the Bears’ secondary.
Eagles Defense vs. Bears Offense
The Bears’ offense is hard to defend because Justin Fields has turned his offense into a ridiculous efficient running attack. That is an elite running offense. Just looking at the stats, you would expect the Bears to run it all over the Eagles’ defense. But, we have really seen the Eagles commit to stopping the run and I don't expect the Bears to run it that successfully. However, as I say every week, players > scheme, and Justin Fields is a special athlete who will break some big runs, whatever you do on defense. Expect a lot of sacks in this game if the Eagles score early and the Bears have to throw to catch up. The Bears have a poor offensive line and Fields holds the ball for way too long. That’s a bad combination!
2 Key Matchups
Justin Fields running
We all know how special Fields is as a runner and the numbers show he can do it on scrambles and designed runs.
On designed QB runs, Fields has 403 yards on 64 carries (6.3 YPC) with 5 TDs and 27 of them have resulted in first downs.
On scrambles, Fields is ridiculous. He has 493 yards on 55 carries (9 YPC!!) for 3 TDS and 28 first downs. Every single one of those numbers ranks 1st in the league. If you let Fields get out of the pocket with space, there is a good chance he is going to pick up a big play.
Run or Throw - who cares?
This Bears’ defense probably can’t stop the Eagles whatever they do, but I think the Eagles are going to love these numbers,
On 1st down, teams running against the Bears have 1120 yards (3rd) on 219 carries (3rd) with 11 TDs (1st), 43 first downs (1st), and 35 broken tackles (1st). This Bears' defense cannot tackle or stop the run.
Let’s say for some reason the run doesn't work. Don’t panic! On 3rd down, the Bears have allowed opposing quarterbacks to throw for 907 yards on 97 attempts, which is 9.4 YPA! That is pretty abysmal. Part of this is because of the inability to rush the quarterback. The Bears have the 2nd lowest amount of pressures on 3rd down with 43.
Unless the Eagles do something strange, they should score a lot of points this week.