With four regular season games remaining, Jalen Hurts is the betting favorite to win NFL MVP.
Here are the current betting odds available on DraftKings Sportsbook, listed from shortest (most likely) to longest (least likely):
- Jalen Hurts -175
- Patrick Mahomes +200
- Joe Burrow +750
- Josh Allen +2000
- Tua Tagovailoa +2000
- Geno Smith +8000
- Tyreek Hill +10000
- Kirk Cousins +10000
- Justin Jefferson +10000
- Dak Prescott +10000
- Christian McCaffrey +25000
- Derrick Henry +25000
- Micah Parsons +25000
For those unfamiliar with gambling, a $10 bet on Hurts would pay out $15.71. The same bet on Mahomes would pay out $30.
Hurts should be the favorite at this point. As my BGN Radio co-host Jimmy Kempski succinctly put it, Hurts has not had a bad game this year and he is the best player on the best team in the NFL. It’s that simple. There’s really no need for anybody to twist themselves into a pretzel while trying to argue it’s actually Mahomes or someone else.
Of course, that probably sounds biased coming from someone who writes about the Eagles. So, allow me to present Hurts MVP arguments coming from a DALLAS COWBOYS fan (RJ Ochoa) and a Kansas City Chiefs fan (Pete Sweeney) via The SB Nation NFL Show.
OCHOA: The front-runner for MVP right now is Jalen Hurts. Especially with Patrick Mahomes— I don’t want to say suffering, the Chiefs won, that’s ultimately what matters the most. But kind of a slower performance. Jalen Hurts has not had those bumps in the road. [...] This is Jalen Hurts’ thing to lose.
SWEENEY: It’s Jalen Hurts’ award to lose and look no further than the conference standings. I feel like I can speak on behalf of Philly fans and Kansas City fans as part of covering the Andy Reid, Donna Kelce teams here. I think that Philly fans and Kansas City fans do not care about the MVP. But from the outside looking in, it is a two-man race. And right now our friends at DraftKings Sportbook has switched Jalen Hurts to the favorite, which, to me, is deserved. [...] The bottom line is this: if Buffalo were to keep the bye [by winning the No. 1 seed and not being overtaken by Kansas City], Jalen Hurts is going to win. Because the NFC is going to the Eagles. To me, it’s over. They just have to get through these games and they’re going to be it. So, I don’t know if Hurts is going to lose. And it’s a shame because Patrick Mahomes is having a nice year but he doesn’t deserve it with some of the way that the Chiefs have played this year. And they’ve blown it against two good teams that they needed to beat to be in control. [...] There’s such a narrative part of being the MVP and Hurts right now is checking off all the boxes while Mahomes and Burrow still have work to do. It can change ... but, for me, I just don’t think the Eagles are falling off and if Hurts is the MVP favorite right now, how would that change? And so I think he’s going to end up getting it.
Mahomes obviously has the edge on Hurts when it comes to volume passing numbers. But one cannot merely discount the latter quarterback’s rushing production.
Hurts has accounted for 32 total touchdowns this season to just five giveaways. Mahomes has accounted for 35 total touchdowns but has also turned the ball over 11 times.
One must also consider Hurts’ numbers aren’t as gaudy because he’s led the Eagles to big wins where they don’t even need to compete as hard in the second half. Check out these splits:
Mahomes vs. Hurts respective first half numbers tell a much different and more relevant story than the per game stats:— Marvin Graye (@johnwintertweet) December 12, 2022
Mahomes: 2,292 Total Yds, 19 Total TD, 7.7 YPA, 65.1 Comp%, 1.4 Int%, 105.0 rtg
Hurts: 2,643 Total Yds, 22 Total TD, 8.6 YPA, 68.0 Comp%, 0.8 Int%, 109.2 rtg
Hurts has also missed 25 snaps due to the Eagles pulling their starters in three games this year while Mahomes has missed 11 with the Chiefs pulling their starters in two games.
All this said, a regular season MVP award is nice and all but it pales in comparison to winning Super Bowl MVP. Perhaps Hurts will become the first player to win both awards since ... Kurt Warner in 1999.