It is fair to say the Philadelphia Eagles’ 9-1 record looks better than it currently feels?
The Birds were in jeopardy of losing their second straight game to an inferior opponent before ultimately pulling out a one-point win against the Indianapolis Colts. It goes without saying that the Eagles need to play much better moving forward.
Despite recent struggles, however, faith in the Eagles is hardly depleted. They are seven-point home favorites against the Green Bay Packers on Sunday Night Football in Week 12 according to DraftKings Sportsbook.
Once upon a time, this game looked like the toughest matchup on the schedule. Many expected the team with the reigning back-to-back NFL MVP to be start much better than 4-7 through 11 games.
Instead, Aaron Rodgers has struggled ... relative to his standards, at least. On one hand, his 93.2 passer rating ranks 11th among quarterbacks. On the other hand, that figure is the second-lowest of his career as a full-time starter.
The Packers are simply not a team with good vibes. Rodgers has been visibly frustrated throughout this season. He clearly misses Davante Adams. His new leading receiver is Allen Lazard, who is averaging 58.8 yards per game. For context, Adams averaged 97.6 yards per game in his last two years with Rodgers.
Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon are a nice backfield pairing that could look to test an Eagles run defense that played better in Week 11.
Green Bay’s defense is mediocre by most metrics. It ranks 16th by Pro Football Focus grading, 17th in in opponent yards per play, 17th in opponent offensive points per game, 20th in EPA per play, and 23rd in DVOA. We’ll see if an Eagles offense that’s gone cold can take advantage.
Overall, it’s hard to take the Packers too lightly given the presence of Rodgers. Jonathan Gannon is coming off a good performance but we’ve previously seen top tier quarterbacks have their way with his unit. Philly’s offense, meanwhile, has clearly been impacted by the loss of Dallas Goedert.
That said, the Eagles should still be able to win. The Packers’ four wins this year:
- Beating the Bears, who Rodgers has always owned, in Week 2 by a final score of 27 to 10.
- Beating the Buccaneers in Week 3 by a final score of 14 to 12.
- Beating the Patriots, who were using the combination of Brian Hoyer and third-string rookie QB Bailey Zappe, in Week 4 by a final score of 27 to 24 in overtime.
- Beating the Cowboys in Week 10 by a final score of 31 to 28 in overtime despite trailing by 14 points entering the fourth quarter.
So, not the most impressive resume there.
Green Bay is just 1-4 on the road, with the sole win being the two-point victory over a fellow bad vibes team in the Bucs.
The Eagles could really afford to come out and comfortably beat an opponent for the first time since they played the Pittsburgh Steelers in late October. The feeling here is that it’s possible they do just that. I’m fine with giving the points at this stage.
What say you?
Which bet do you like more?