NFL Picks Against the Spread: NFC and AFC Championship Games

Before the conference championship round of the 2021 NFL playoffs kicks off, let’s have some fun by taking a look at the spreads for these games. You can CLICK HERE for straight up NFL picks without regard to the spread. You can find all of the NFL betting lines via DraftKings SportsBook.

My overall record is 133-127-6 and my playoff record is 5-4-1. Those marks are better than the BGN community, which is 130-130-6 and 4-5-1, respectively.

NFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS at GREEN BAY PACKERS (-3.5): There’s a case to be made the Bucs are overrated. They got to the NFCCG by merely beating a former XFL backup quarterback in Taylor Heinicke and a totally washed, bound-to-retire quarterback in Drew Brees. Aaron Rodgers is slightly better than those guys! But, hey, that Tampa defense is still pretty good. And we know they’re capable of shutting down Rodgers since they previously did it in Week 6. The Bucs’ offense, meanwhile, is formidable right now with the way Tom Brady is playing. The 43-year-old has thrown 16 touchdown passes to just one interception since Week 14. But you know what’s better than having that ratio in your last six games? Having 17 touchdowns to one interception, which is what Rodgers has accomplished. The Packers quarterback has more to lose in terms of legacy in this spot so there’s a “want it more” factor to consider. The Packers are also helped by having some fans at Lambeau Field. I want Green Bay to win — really don’t want to see Brady in the Super Bowl again — but I have to do the emotional hedge here and take the points, especially with that half point in play. Watch a game about two of the best quarterbacks ever come down to a kicker. PICK: Bucccaneers +3.5

AFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME

BUFFALO BILLS at KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-3): Bear with me for repeating it for the millionth time but back during a December episode of The ODDcast I went on record to say the Bills are winning Super Bowl LV. I still BILLieve, folks. I’m not about to abandon them now just because they’re about to take on the big, bad Chiefs. Look, I know it’s probably not wise to bet against Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid. And I know that Bad Josh Allen still exists and he’s been fortunate to get away with some bad fumbles that ended up being recovered by Buffalo. But this Bills team reminds me of the 2017 Eagles in that they just want it more. I know that’s very reductive but you can just see it in the energy they play with. You know they’ll be bringing the juice here. This is a big opportunity for Sean McDermott to upstage the mentor that scapegoated him back in 2010. It’s also time to take advantage of a Mahomes that could be operating at less than 100%. Stefon Diggs is going to come up huge in this matchup with the game-winning touchdown as time expires. PICK: Bills +3