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NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 3 Games

Suggestions when trying to beat the odds.

NFL: SEP 20 Rams at Eagles Photo by Kyle Ross/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Before the third Sunday of the 2020 NFL regular season kicks off, let’s have some fun by taking a look at the spreads for the Week 3 games. You can CLICK HERE for straight up NFL picks without regard to the spread. You can find all of the NFL betting lines via DraftKings.

My overall record so far is 16-16. I’m still ahead of the BGN community, which finished 15-17 after Week 2.

Here are suggestions when trying to beat the odds.

NFL WEEK 3 GAMES

LAS VEGAS RAIDERS at NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-6): There are a number of factors working against the Raiders’ favor here. They’re banged up; Josh Jacobs and Darren Waller are both questionable for Sunday. They’re playing on short rest after appearing on Monday Night Football. They’re flying across the country for a 1:00 PM Eastern start. Their 30th ranked DVOA defense is going to have problems containing Cam Newton, who’s rounded back to form. The Raiders will lose this game but their offense could be able to keep the game close. PICK: Raiders +6

Poll

Which bet do you like more?

This poll is closed

  • 34%
    Raiders +6
    (88 votes)
  • 65%
    Patriots -6
    (169 votes)
257 votes total Vote Now

CHICAGO BEARS at ATLANTA FALCONS (-3): Funny how the 2-0 Bears are three-point underdogs to the 0-2 Falcons. There’s clearly skepticism about Mitchell Trubisky here ... as there should be. He’s coming off a 78.0 passer rating performance against NYG in Week 2. I’m going with the law of averages here. The Bears aren’t a 3-0 quality team and the Falcons are at least a little better than an 0-3 quality team. I feel like a fool for trusting the biggest chokers in all of football but I’m also a fool so that’s okay. PICK: Falcons -3

Poll

Which bet do you like more?

This poll is closed

  • 18%
    Bears +3
    (40 votes)
  • 81%
    Falcons -3
    (175 votes)
215 votes total Vote Now

HOUSTON TEXANS at PITTSBURGH STEELERS (-4): Man, Houston’s had a tough schedule so far: at KC, vs. BAL, and now at PIT. The Steelers are legit. Pittsburgh ranks third in overall DVOA thanks to a second ranked defense. Ben Roethlisberger can also still play and he doesn’t lack weapons to work with. Feel pretty comfortable going with the Stillers in this spot. Give me Mike Tomlin over Bill O’Brien any day of the week. PICK: Steelers -4

Poll

Which bet do you like more?

This poll is closed

  • 22%
    Texans +4
    (47 votes)
  • 77%
    Steelers -4
    (166 votes)
213 votes total Vote Now

CINCINNATI BENGALS at PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (-4.5): What have the Eagles done to earn the benefit of the doubt? They’re the NFL’s worst team in terms of DVOA. They’re the NFC’s worst team in terms of point differential. Carson Wentz can’t hit the broad side of a barn right now. The defense is coming off a leaky performance. It’s not like the Bengals are great; they may very well struggle to stop Miles Sanders. But Joe Burrow is hungry for his first pro win and Cincy is at least going to make this game competitive. The Bengals have the advantage of extra rest against a banged up Eagles team. Take the points. PICK: Bengals +4.5

Poll

Which bet do you like more?

This poll is closed

  • 47%
    Bengals +4.5
    (109 votes)
  • 52%
    Eagles -4.5
    (119 votes)
228 votes total Vote Now

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (-3) at NEW YORK GIANTS: I know Nick Mullens did some nice things when he had to play back in 2018 but I don’t really care. This Niners team is just sooooo banged up and the Giants haven’t been a total pushover through two games. The G-Men are going to pick up their first win here with San Fran making that cross country flight for a 1:00 PM start. PICK: Giants +3

Poll

Which bet do you like more?

This poll is closed

  • 57%
    49ers -3
    (112 votes)
  • 42%
    Giants +3
    (82 votes)
194 votes total Vote Now

LOS ANGELES RAMS at BUFFALO BILLS (-2): Interesting battle of two 2-0 teams that qualify as “good” but leave you wondering just how good they truly are. Tough pick but I think it comes down to me actually having more faith in Josh Allen than Jared Goff. Goff’s coming off his best game in a long time but he was pretty bleh for a long stretch before that. Allen, meanwhile, is red hot. Buffalo’s coaching staff has done a great job with him. PICK: Bills -2

Poll

Which bet do you like more?

This poll is closed

  • 38%
    Rams +2
    (72 votes)
  • 61%
    Bills -2
    (113 votes)
185 votes total Vote Now

WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM at CLEVELAND BROWNS (-7.5): The Browns rank third in pass protection as graded by Pro Football Focus. Their offensive line should be able to hold up against Washington’s formidable front. Was originally tempted to take the points but I’m just not a Dwayne Haskins guy so I don’t know how I can count on him like that. PICK: Browns -7.5

Poll

Which bet do you like more?

This poll is closed

  • 43%
    Football Team +7.5
    (79 votes)
  • 56%
    Browns -7.5
    (103 votes)
182 votes total Vote Now

TENNESSEE TITANS (-3) at MINNESOTA VIKINGS: This line almost seems too good to be true. Kirk Cousins is playing like absolute crap right now; he owns the NFL’s worst passer rating. The Titans are a good team and Cousins doesn’t beat those. The spread should be bigger than this. Don’t know how you could take Minny. PICK: Titans -3

Poll

Which bet do you like more?

This poll is closed

  • 73%
    Titans -3
    (133 votes)
  • 26%
    Vikings +3
    (47 votes)
180 votes total Vote Now

NEW YORK JETS at INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (-11.5): More like New York Jokes because they’re a laughing stock. Gottem. Frank Reich versus Adam Gase is a huge coaching mismatch in the Colts’ favor. Sam Darnold basically has no help considering Chris Hogan is his top wide receiver for this game and a 37-year-old Frank Gore is his top running back. Indy should be able to comfortably cover this spread. PICK: Colts -11.5

Poll

Which bet do you like more?

This poll is closed

  • 37%
    Jets +11.5
    (57 votes)
  • 62%
    Jets -11.5
    (96 votes)
153 votes total Vote Now

CAROLINA PANTHERS at LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (-6.5): Justin Herbert did some nice things last week despite starting on short notice. But he’s still a flawed rookie and I think 6.5 points is generous. The Panthers aren’t good but they’re only four spots lower than the Bolts in DVOA. Even if they lose, Matt Rhule’s side should be able to keep it close. PICK: Panthers +6.5

Poll

Which bet do you like more?

This poll is closed

  • 30%
    Panthers +6.5
    (47 votes)
  • 69%
    Chargers -6.5
    (109 votes)
156 votes total Vote Now

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (-6) at DENVER BRONCOS: The Broncos are starting Jeff Driskel, who is 1-7 as a starter with an 80.2 career passer rating. And he won’t have Courtland Sutton to work with. If Tom Brady can’t comfortably outperform Driskel, he’s officially toast. The Bucs are the easy pick. PICK: Buccaneers -6

Poll

Which bet do you like more?

This poll is closed

  • 87%
    Buccaneers -6
    (142 votes)
  • 12%
    Broncos +6
    (21 votes)
163 votes total Vote Now

DETROIT LIONS at ARIZONA CARDINALS (-5.5): Let’s see ... the Lions are 1-14 in their last 15 games under their joke of a head coach. The Cardinals, meanwhile, are trending in the right direction under theirs. Kyler Murray should prove too much to handle for a Lions defense that ranks 31st in DVOA. PICK: Cardinals -5.5

Poll

Which bet do you like more?

This poll is closed

  • 13%
    Lions +5.5
    (22 votes)
  • 86%
    Cardinals -5.5
    (147 votes)
169 votes total Vote Now

DALLAS COWBOYS at SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-5): I don’t like betting against Russell Wilson, who is easily the NFL’s MVP through two games. He just looks sensational out there. But Seattle’s defense has issues and we know the Cowboys can score. Last week’s miraculous win might serving as a rallying point for Dallas. They’re definitely going to at least cover. PICK: Cowboys +5

Poll

Which bet do you like more?

This poll is closed

  • 32%
    Cowboys +5
    (55 votes)
  • 67%
    Seahawks -5
    (113 votes)
168 votes total Vote Now

GREEN BAY PACKERS at NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-3.5): I mean, have you seen the way Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees have been playing? The former looks excellent. The latter looks cooked. I’d quickly take the Packers at -3.5 so I’m definitely taking them with the points. PICK: Packers +3.5

Poll

Which bet do you like more?

This poll is closed

  • 76%
    Packers +3.5
    (122 votes)
  • 23%
    Saints -3.5
    (37 votes)
159 votes total Vote Now

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS at BALTIMORE RAVENS (-3.5): It’s always hard to bet against Patrick Mahomes but Kansas City’s defense, which ranks 23rd in DVOA, has some issues. The Ravens are just such a stacked squad. Baltimore ranks first in DVOA and nearly by twice as much as the next closest team. Hard not to go with Lamar Jackson’s side in this spot. PICK: Ravens -3.5

Poll

Which bet do you like more?

This poll is closed

  • 45%
    Chiefs +3.5
    (85 votes)
  • 54%
    Ravens -3.5
    (101 votes)
186 votes total Vote Now