Every year there are mock drafts created, and every year they are wrong. But how wrong are they?
Let us turn to our yearly scoring system. The system is simple. For every spot the pick is wrong, you get a point. So if you had Joe Burrow going 11th, you get 10 points. If you had Joe Burrow going 11th you should probably get 100, but the rules are the rules, and anyway no one had him going anything other than 1st. One of the biggest derailments of mock drafts are trades. A lot of mock drafters don’t mock trades, but for those who dare get a double points penalty. Like I said, simple, but effective. It’s so easy you can play at home!
As I do with all of these, I included the BGN Community Mock Draft. I also added the BGN Consensus Mock Draft. The Community Mock always does poorly, but it’s never the worst, and that’s the point. We need to see which professionals did worse than a group of randomly selected non-professionals.
Debuting this year is Arif Hasan’s Consensus Big Board, a compilation of over 60 mocks by the tops in the profession. This is a fun tool and very useful to see where and how the NFL differs from the mock drafters. It’s also a pretty thankless job by Hasan, so, thank you Arif. On the other end of that spectrum is Mike Florio, who readily admits that he puts no effort into it. In the past he hasn’t done as well as he did here, but he also never scores really poorly.
Let’s take a look.
2020 Mock Draft Scores
|Mocker||Score||Correct Picks||Worst Pick|
|Mocker||Score||Correct Picks||Worst Pick|
|Daniel Jeremiah, NFL Network||158||9||Jaylon Johnson (50th) to MIN at 22|
|Lance Zierlein, NFL.com||167||7||Ezra Cleveland (58th) to MIN at 25|
|Will Brinson, CBS||209||6||Kristian Fulton (61st) to MIN at 25|
|Mel Kiper, ESPN||215||6||Josh Jones (72nd) to MIA at 26|
|Rob Rang, CBS||234||4||Travon Diggs (51st) to DAL at 17|
|Mike Florio, PFT/NBC||241||7||Kristian Fulton (61st) to NO at 24|
|Evan Silva, Establish the Run||243||4||Ezra Cleveland (58th) to NE at 23|
|Danny Kelly, The Ringer||259||7||Josh Jones (72nd) to TB at 14|
|Dan Kadar, SBNation||263||8||Josh Jones (72nd) to TB at 14|
|Albert Breer, SI||266||11||Josh Jones (72nd) to LAC at 31 in a trade|
|Luke Easterling, USA Today||267||4||Josh Jones (72nd) to MIA at 26|
|Todd McShay, ESPN||275||7||Josh Jones (72nd) to MIA at 26|
|Matt Miller, B/R||275||7||Josh Jones (72nd) to JAX at 20|
|Dane Brugler, The Athletic||275||6||Ezra Cleveland (58th) to ATL at 16|
|Pete Prisco, CBS||283||2||Kristian Fulton (61st) to MIN at 22|
|BGN Consensus||287||8||Kristian Fulton (61st) to LV at 19|
|Eric Galko, Optimum Scouting||296||8||Ezra Cleveland (58th) to CLE at 18 in a trade|
|Josh Norris, Rotoworld||297||7||Josh Jones (72nd) to NE at 25|
|Arif Hasan Big Board, The Athletic||331||5||Josh Jones (72nd) 30th|
|Peter King, NBC||332||10||Josh Jones (72nd) to SF at 23 in a trade|
|BGN Community||379||8||Josh Jones (72nd) to SEA at 27|
|Doug Farrar, USA Today||427||2||Kristian Fulton (61st) to JAX at 16 in a trade|
|Steve Palazzolo, PFF||598||4||Curtis Weaver (164) to KC at 32|
Safe to say that either Josh Jones is great value in the 3rd round or most of these people have no idea what they are looking at.
Daniel Jeremiah is once again the king. It’s no surprise, he was a former scout and is well plugged in with sources throughout the scouting community. Jeremiah once again topped the charts despite having a relatively low number of correct picks because when he misses, he only misses by a few slots. 14 of his picks were taken within 5 spots of where he thought they would.
Lance Zierlein had 18 of his picks taken within 5 spots of where he thought they would go. Zierlein also correctly predicted the Eagles would take Jalen Reagor, as did Danny Kelly.
The number of correct picks is a little inflated, as everyone knew Joe Burrow was going 1st and that Chase Young was going 2nd. Except Doug Farrar and Steve Palazzolo. They had Chase Young going 4th. Not coincidentally, Farrar and Palazzolo have been, year in and year out, the worst mocks I’ve scored.
Palazzolo had 12 players in his mock that didn’t go in the 1st round. Farrar had 10.
The Consensus Big Board also had 10 whiffs. For the 1st 20 picks it did very well, never missing by more than 9 spots. Then it got rough. From pick 21 to 32 it scored 259 points, more than seven entire mock drafts.
Todd McShay was unable to make a final mock draft due to contracting Coronavirus, so we’ll give him some slack here, he’s usually better than average. Get well soon Todd.
Peter King had five straight correct picks, 10 total, and still finished poorly. The Jones pick killed him, but he also had 2nd rounders AJ Epenesa and Kristian Fulton in the top 20.
Pete Prisco was the only one to correctly predict that Noah Igbinoghene would go in the first round, he had him going 29th, one pick before he actually did. Nice job.
Likewise, Matt Miller was the only one to have Damon Arnette drafted in the first, he had him going 18th, one pick before he actually did.
Mike Florio was not only the only one to correctly predict that Clyde Edwards-Helaire would go in the first, but he also correctly predicted him to the Chiefs at 32. If Edwards-Helaire was going to go in the 1st it was almost certainly going to be to Kansas City, but nobody else had that foresight.
Only one mock had the Raiders taking Henry Ruggs at 12: The BGN Community Mock! Everyone congratulate Phillysolo for outshining everyone. However, for failing to accurately predict Jalen Reagor, 20Safety_Hazard has been banned. Sorry but that’s how it goes.
People that do mock drafts and people who actual drafting: both are flawed!