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The curious case of Zach Ertz

The Eagles have picked up the 2021 option of pro bowl TE Zach Ertz. While not surprising, Ertz's contract now runs at the same time his fellow 2nd round TE's contract ends, 2021. Few teams have the depth of a starting caliber TE on their team backing up a pro bowl TE, that is mainly because of how difficult it is to get the second TE meaningful snaps and how much more sensible it is to trade one of them for assets. The Eagles yet remain committed to the 22 personnel.

Goedert will be 27 when his contract ends, while Ertz will be 31. Goedert is the better blocker while Ertz is the better route runner and receiver. Goedert clearly has better big play potential while Ertz is the key to the offense and remains their key chain mover. Ertz will cost over 12 million against the cap while Goedert will costs less than 2 million each the next two seasons. Ertz has more value on the open market than Goedert.

The case of keeping Ertz

In the past whenever there was a discussion about the possibility of moving on from Ertz my response would be the same, the principle the Eagles offense runs on is simply "You simply cannot defend 86 one on one with anyone on defense in the NFL". For further examples of this please refer to how the greatest defensive coach in the history of football has defended him- earlier with a LB bracketed with a S, which later turned into just a S with zone coverage underneath and finally with a player who became the DPOY this year, in each of those coverages, Ertz cooked the opposing defender whenever there was a one on one opportunity, again I refer you to the film. He was the mismatch Doug Pederson repeatedly exploited against the Patriots in the Superbowl, either as a decoy or as the primary weapon and was the go ahead score for a reason ( forcing the Patriots to show their coverage with him lined up outside).

His route running is unreal and uncomparable to not only his predecessors but to his contemporaries. A man that large and with that size should not be able to run better routes than wide receivers several inches shorter and almost 60 pounds lighter than him. He creates easy separation despite his lack of a second gear or his inability to run away from anyone. I know many people in this Eagles community will not like the comparison but the player he most reminds me of, is Jason Witten, not because of his similar game, but because of their similar ability to get open in a phone booth's worth of space.

Ertz by all the metrics and film grades is (at least) third best TE in football and is in his prime. He is 18 months younger than Travis Kelce and three years senior to George Kittle of the SF 49ers. He is also 6 months younger than Rob Gronkowski. The reason those 3 names have significant value is because those 3 other TEs are the 4 TE's ( including Ertz) in each of the last 3 Superbowls, the Rams being the only team without a big name TE ( and we all know that did not come back to bite them in the ass). If you even go back 4 superbowls and include the then up and coming TE who just received a ton of money, Austin Hooper ( likely ranked in. the top 8 of any overall TE ranking), the value of the position increases that much more apparent.

Ertz has a game, unlike his contemporaries, that relies solely on his skill more than talent ( see above). He will age well into his 30s, so a decline in ability is unlikely. He also has played at least 14 games each of the last 3 seasons with no long term injuries popping up. He is dependable and has established a great connection with his QB and coach.

The soon to be 30 year old also holds intrinsic value. Ertz holds the Eagles record for most TE receiving yards and TDs in their history. He is one of the best to ever wear the midnight green colors. He also is a good role model and community leader in Philadelphia, he actually loves it here and has said, more than once, he wants to end his career here. If he continues his dominance for the next 4-5 years he may be not only an Eagles hall of famer but an NFL gold jacket nominee as well.

The against keeping Ertz

This angle is harder to do because it is more obvious. He is 30, generally 30 year old TEs do not age gracefully, just ask the best (statistical) TE to ever lace them up in Tony Gonzales. They lose much their extreme athletic ability and must adapt, they lose their strength to effectively block despite learning better technique and usually have durability concerns.

Ertz has played a full 16 game season 3 times in his 7 year career. GM Howie Roseman has stated the Eagles need to find players with less health concerns and that should include Ertz. Even during those 3 years when he played the full season, he had nagging or performance crippling injuries he fought through for the benefit of the team.

While Ertz's game is not based on rare athletic ability, he will find it harder to separate effectively on routes with a declining athletic ability. He will be more easily covered by S and hybrid LBs who have the foot speed to correct their missteps making windows that much more tighter for QB Carson Wentz.

Ertz unlike Alshon Jeffery, has a competent backup ready to take over for him at a moments notice. Dallas Goedert has played the role of great backup and occasional spot starter for the Eagles without a huge drop off in production. Goedert's natural size to speed mismatch also allows for MUCH better Yards after contact and more big plays. Goedert's contract runs out around the same time as Ertz's does, so he may decide to take his talent elsewhere, to a team who will pay him more and can use him better. Again their is a 4 year difference in age so if Goedert, who will be 27 at the end of his current contract, takes over for Ertz, who will be 31, if the Eagles play both out til the end of their contracts, Goedert will likely only have 4 good years of production after that making a long term investment from the Eagles a bad idea. Goedert's game is based mainly on his size to speed mismatch and remind me a ton of Travis Kelce's game. But because of that big play ability defenses must respect him beyond 15 yards and hashmarks where Ertz has made a living, thus opening up the offense.

The 12 million dollars Ertz is owed over the next 2 years may not sound like a ton, but he like Malcolm Jenkins did the past two seasons, has openly stated he wants a new contract. Currently trading him will cost the Eagles 13.5 million ( 1.5 more million than to keep him) in dead money. That said I am sure Ertz is willing to restructure his deal if it meant either getting paid or getting traded to a team that will extend his deal.

His value as stated above is very high in the league, but particularly in this off-season where the rookie class is very underwhelming. The Eagles with Roseman have entered a new waters, the team has many holes to fill without many picks or much cap room, trading a key piece may hurt in the short term but seriously pay off in the long term. Hayden Hurst, a former 1st round (BUST) TE with all the physical tools but a very lengthy injury history, was traded for a 2nd round pick. That is unheard of. Imagine what a player like Ertz would return, a first round pick? A second round pick plus an additional few picks? Ertz as mentioned before, is at worst, the 3rd best TE in football, his value to a team looking to win now in need of a TE would be very high. I imagine Ertz's trade market would start with a 2nd round pick in the 30s plus an additional 3rd round pick, particularly if the team trading for him is going for it.

All that said, trading Ertz must be with caution, Dallas Goedert has already missed a game in his young NFL career, he is not the route runner or the mismatch threat Ertz is, thus without another few threats around him to prevent bracket coverage, he will not produce well.

The Likely teams that would target Ertz

I thought twice about adding this portion to the article, but then thought hell if I care, this is a fan post and it would be irresponsible to adding a second post about the trade value of Ertz, including teams is a must. The trade value based on picks to me must be roughly around 700 points.

1. Colts - this one is obvious, Frank Reich saw the value of Ertz and how impossible at times it was to defend the then 26 year old in the playoffs. After two years of butter finger Ebron he would likely throw his entire front office under the bus if Ertz was on the market and they did not get him for anything short of a first round pick ( which they no longer own). The Colts signed Phillip Rivers this off-season and giving him a TE is a must for Reich's offense to work at maximum efficiency especially since they lost Ebron in free agency.

What the trade demand should be - I frothed at the mouth for this one. #34 (2nd round, 2nd pick) and #75 ( 3rd round) for Ertz and Eagles #103 (3rd round compensatory). 687 points

2. Patriots - Bill Belichick not only knows the value of a good TE (see Gronkowski, Rob) but the innate disadvantage of having to defend Ertz (see above). Having lost Brady in the off-seeason this may seem unlikely but if the Patriots were to either start Stidham or trade for a backup QB like Andy Dalton, they would both require weapons, in a loaded WR draft that won't be impossible in the later rounds but this TE rookie class is very underwhelming with likely only 2-3 starters by year 2 from this group.

What the trade demand should be - #23 (first round) for Ertz and #146 ( 4th round compensatory). 727 points

3. Green Bay - I purposefully added this 3rd because it would not be in the Eagles best interest to give Aaron Rodgers another weapon in addition to the underrated Devantae Adams who sees bracket coverage on a weekly basis. However they cannot keep wasting Rodgers' talent with second tier weapons like they did this year.

What the trade demand should be - #30 (first round) and # 94 (3rd round) for Ertz and #146 ( 4th round compensatory) 711 points

4. New York Jets - They desperately need to see what Sam Darnold is by now. Former Eagles assistant GM Joe Douglas knows how valuable having a good TE is to a young QB's development. I hesitated on this adding this because the Jets are in fact rebuilding and need pick rather than trading them.

What the trade demand should be - #48 (second round), #68 (3rd round), # 79 (3rd round) for Ertz and #145, #146 ( 4th round compensatory picks). 711 points

Or

Jamal Adams (S) for Ertz +#103 pick

5. Jacksonville Jaguars- This one is the most convoluted because it includes multiple players and picks but I think its fair. Jacksonville must see what it has with Gardner Minshew or any rookie QB they draft and a QB's best friend is a good TE. They have a few assets they should be willing to part with for this, though it seems cruel for Howie to send him here.

What the trade demand should be - Yannick Ngakoue + Josh Oliver (TE) + #42 (second round) for Zach Ertz + Derek Barnett+ #146 ( 4th round compensatory)

I think the value of Yannick is overblown, he is a terrible run defender at DE whose sole focus is getting to the QB. He overruns plays, gets pushed at the line and simply shows crap effort in holding the edge in obvious run downs. I think the value of Barnett + #53 is equal to the value of Yannick. I only added this because everyone is doing their own Yannick trade for a 2021 first round pick, which to me is a terrible idea.

6. Cincinnati Bengals - They will be drafting Joe Burrow. Remember how I said a young QB's best friend is a TE? This goes double when you draft a TE an entire round too early the year prior and you are the Bengals. Bengals have a few players the Eagles could use instead of getting extra picks to make up the difference in draft points. Owner Mike Brown and his son have never really liked trading players ( or picks for that matter) but here they get to shed some contracts of veteran players with replacements already on the roster. Personally the first trade option is my favorite outside of the Indy trade because the Eagles get to address some positions outside of the draft. Drew Sample is someone who was projected as a good backup TE that should have been taken on day 3 last year, naturally the Bengals selected him in the second round. John Ross is a former 1st round (bust) WR who set the 40 yard dash record a few years ago but injury and lack of skill at the WR position has held him back, he showed some flashes last year. Carlos Dunlap is a consistent and good DE who plays the run well and is a good pass rusher, he is rumored to be on the trade block for a 3rd/4th round pick, while he is 30 he costs 17 million in 2020 and 2021 COMBINED ( by comparison Yannick has a 17 million dollar tag and he is crying about being underpaid without a long term deal).

What the trade demand should be - #33 ( second round pick) + Carlos Dunlap (DE) + John Ross (WR) + Drew Sample (TE) for Zach Ertz , Derek Barnett (DE), Alshon Jeffery (WR) and #146 (4th round compensatory).

Or

#33 (second round pick) + 65 (3rd round pick) for Ertz + #103 ( 3rd round compensatory pick) +#146 (4th round compensatory pick) 724 points.

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