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Before Super Bowl LIV kicks off, let’s have some fun by taking a look at the spread for the big game.
My overall record this season is 128-129-9. The collective BGN community, meanwhile, is 127-130-9.
You can CLICK HERE for straight up NFL picks without regard to the spread. You can find all of the NFL betting lines via DraftKings SportsBook.
SUPER BOWL LIV
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS vs. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-1.5)
I’m of a couple minds when it comes to this one.
My first thought is that the Chiefs could really struggle to stop the 49ers’ rushing attack. KC’s run defense has obviously tightened up in the playoffs but it wasn’t very good in the regular season: 29th in opponent yards per rushing attempt and 29th in DVOA. The Chiefs have been able to stop power backs like Carlos Hyde and Derrick Henry but San Fran’s speedy backfield presents a new challenge. The 49ers being able to run the ball effectively will mitigate the disparity between Jimmy Garoppolo and Patrick Mahomes.
But speaking of that Mahomes guy, he’s pretty freaking good. It’s difficult to bet against him after watching what he’s done in the playoffs thus far. The 49ers seemed well-equipped as anyone to limit Mahomes’ damage with their defensive line but they’re just not going to be able to shut him down entirely. Mahomes is going to ‘get his’ to some extent. The Chiefs have too many offensive weapons for it not to happen.
I’d be lying if I said I had full confidence in Andy Reid heading into a critical game. In a way, it feels like this finally has to be the for Big Red. But what if it’s not? What if he blows another opportunity? Is anyone going to be truly shocked? The 49ers feel like a team of destiny — not dissimilar to the 2017 Philadelphia Eagles — in their own right. While the Chiefs fell out of the spotlight at one point during the 2019 season, the 49ers have always been at the forefront. It might be more fitting if they win.
Ultimately, I’m going to say that the Chiefs find a way to hold up against the run and turn this game into a quarterback duel. And if that’s the case, I like Mahomes a lot more than Jimmy G.
PICK: Chiefs -1.5