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NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 11 Games

Suggestions when trying to beat the odds.

Philadelphia Eagles v Cleveland Browns Photo by: 2018 Nick Cammett/Diamond Images/Getty Images

Before the eleventh Sunday of the 2020 NFL regular season kicks off, let’s have some fun by taking a look at the spreads for the Week 11 games. You can CLICK HERE for straight up NFL picks without regard to the spread. You can find all of the NFL betting lines via DraftKings.

My overall record so far is 74-71-2 after going 8-6 last week. The BGN community is two games behind at 72-73-2.

Here are suggestions when trying to beat the odds.

NFL WEEK 11 GAMES

PITTSBURGH STEELERS (-10.5) at JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS: The Jags kept things close against Green Bay last week but they’re not going to do that again here. The Steelers are better and they’re coming off their most dominant win of the season. Jake Luton is bound for multiple turnovers against this defense. PICK: Steelers -10.5

Poll

Which bet do you like more?

This poll is closed

  • 69%
    Steelers -10.5
    (53 votes)
  • 30%
    Jaguars +10.5
    (23 votes)
76 votes total Vote Now

ATLANTA FALCONS at NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-4): Seems like a lot of people are expecting Taysom Hill to be a disaster but I actually think he’ll have success. I’ve gotta take the No. 1 overall DVOA team over the No. 20 DVOA team. PICK: Saints -4

Poll

Which bet do you like more?

This poll is closed

  • 50%
    Falcons +4
    (37 votes)
  • 50%
    Saints -4
    (37 votes)
74 votes total Vote Now

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES at CLEVELAND BROWNS (-3): The Eagles are going to be able to keep the Browns’ running game in check and Baker Mayfield will struggle to carry Cleveland’s offense. It would be a relief for Philly to lose this game so naturally they’ll torture their fans by winning instead. PICK: Eagles +3

Poll

Which bet do you like more?

This poll is closed

  • 42%
    Eagles +3
    (33 votes)
  • 57%
    Browns -3
    (45 votes)
78 votes total Vote Now

TENNESSEE TITANS at BALTIMORE RAVENS (-6): I worry that the Titans’ defense could be the antidote for the Ravens’ struggling offense. Tennessee’s 31st DVOA ranked special teams unit is also an issue. But winning by six seems like a lot to ask from Baltimore right now. PICK: Titans +6

Poll

Which bet do you like more?

This poll is closed

  • 54%
    Titans +6
    (36 votes)
  • 45%
    Ravens -6
    (30 votes)
66 votes total Vote Now

CINCINNATI BENGALS at WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM (-1.5): The Football Team’s defense is going to disrupt the Bengals’ offense. Alex Smith is due for his first win since the 2018 season. Washington needs this game more as they try to stay alive in the NFC East race. PICK: Football Team -1.5

Poll

Which bet do you like more?

This poll is closed

  • 53%
    Bengals +1.5
    (33 votes)
  • 46%
    Football Team -1.5
    (29 votes)
62 votes total Vote Now

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-2) at HOUSTON TEXANS: Not sure exactly what to make of the Pats. They barely beat NYJ only to then earn a victory over Baltimore. Guess I’m counting on Bill Belichick to find a way to beat a bad Houston team. PICK: Patriots -2

Poll

Which bet do you like more?

This poll is closed

  • 71%
    Patriots -2
    (41 votes)
  • 28%
    Texans +2
    (16 votes)
57 votes total Vote Now

DETROIT LIONS (-1.5) at CAROLINA PANTHERS: Matthew Stafford is entering the game banged up while Teddy Bridgewater is expected to be a game-time decision. The quarterback uncertainty makes this tough but I can’t in good conscience take Matt Patricia over Matt Rhule. Big coaching mismatch. PICK: Panthers +1.5

Poll

Which bet do you like more?

This poll is closed

  • 29%
    Lions -1.5
    (16 votes)
  • 70%
    Panthers +1.5
    (38 votes)
54 votes total Vote Now

MIAMI DOLPHINS (-3.5) at DENVER BRONCOS: The Dolphins are fifth in point differential and 10th in DVOA. They’re a good team! The Broncos, meanwhile, are 29th in point differential and 31st in DVOA. They’re a bad team! PICK: Dolphins -3.5

Poll

Which bet do you like more?

This poll is closed

  • 82%
    Dolphins -3.5
    (51 votes)
  • 17%
    Broncos +3.5
    (11 votes)
62 votes total Vote Now

NEW YORK JETS at LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (-9.5): Oh my. Look, I like the Chargers and I think they’re better than their record indicates. But 9.5 points is a lot to ask from a team that regularly disappoints and finds ways to lose. The Jets might be able to win this game outright coming out of their bye. The points are too tempting to not take. PICK: Jets +9.5

Poll

Which bet do you like more?

This poll is closed

  • 36%
    Jets +9.5
    (20 votes)
  • 63%
    Chargers -9.5
    (35 votes)
55 votes total Vote Now

GREEN BAY PACKERS at INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (-1.5): The Colts’ defense has what it takes to keep Aaron Rodgers in check. Philip Rivers has been more hot than not lately and can lead Indy to victory. PICK: Colts -1.5

Poll

Which bet do you like more?

This poll is closed

  • 71%
    Packers +1.5
    (43 votes)
  • 28%
    Colts -1.5
    (17 votes)
60 votes total Vote Now

DALLAS COWBOYS at MINNESOTA VIKINGS (-7): It’s worth considering how the Cowboys were looking more competitive prior to their bye. Also worth considering that Dallas has a rest advantage with Minny coming off Monday Night Football. But methinks Dalvin Cook and Justin Jefferson are capable of shredding this defense and the Vikings will continue to roll. PICK: Vikings -7

Poll

Which bet do you like more?

This poll is closed

  • 22%
    Cowboys +7
    (14 votes)
  • 77%
    Vikings -7
    (47 votes)
61 votes total Vote Now

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-7.5) at LAS VEGAS RAIDERS: The Raiders beat the Chiefs earlier this year. It look Las Vegas out-Chiefsing the Chiefs to get that result. I don’t think it happens twice. We all know Andy Reid is so good coming out of the bye. And the Raiders’ defense basically missed the entire week of practice due to COVID concerns. PICK: Chiefs -7.5

Poll

Which bet do you like more?

This poll is closed

  • 70%
    Chiefs -7.5
    (39 votes)
  • 29%
    Raiders +7.5
    (16 votes)
55 votes total Vote Now

LOS ANGELES RAMS at TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (-4): We saw a defensive struggle the last time Jared Goff and Tom Brady faced off. That could be the case again here with the No. 1 DVOA defense and the No. 5 DVOA defense appearing in the same game. In that case, I like the points. PICK: Rams +4

Poll

Which bet do you like more?

This poll is closed

  • 44%
    Rams +4
    (31 votes)
  • 55%
    Buccaneers -4
    (39 votes)
70 votes total Vote Now