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NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 4 Games

Suggestions when trying to beat the odds.

NFL: OCT 29 49ers at Eagles

Before the fourth Sunday of the 2020 NFL regular season kicks off, let’s have some fun by taking a look at the spreads for the Week 4 games. You can CLICK HERE for straight up NFL picks without regard to the spread. You can find all of the NFL betting lines via DraftKings.

My overall record so far is 24-24. I’m tied with the BGN community for the exact same record.

Here are suggestions when trying to beat the odds.

NFL WEEK 4 GAMES

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-5.5) at MIAMI DOLPHINS: The Dolphins do have some factors working in their favor. They’re coming off extra rest, they’re home against a West Coast team traveling east for a 1:00 PM start, and they have a quarterback who can get hot. Ryan Fitzpatrick could have a big day against a Seattle defense that’s allowing the most yards per play in the NFL. But here’s the thing: Russell Wilson is awesome and it feels irresponsible to bet against him. PICK: Seahawks -5.5

Poll

Which bet do you like more?

This poll is closed

  • 16%
    Dolphins +5.5
    (40 votes)
  • 83%
    Seahawks -5.5
    (209 votes)
249 votes total Vote Now

BALTIMORE RAVENS (-14) at WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM: The Ravens’ Week 3 loss was less about the Ravens being fraudulent as much as KC is just so good. Lamar Jackson and company will bounce back this week. Dwayne Haskins is pretty bad and he might be without Terry McLaurin. Washington will definitely be without Chase Young. PICK: Ravens -13.5

Poll

Which bet do you like more?

This poll is closed

  • 82%
    Ravens -13.5
    (195 votes)
  • 17%
    Football Team +13.5
    (41 votes)
236 votes total Vote Now

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-3.5) at DETROIT LIONS: The Saints are still without Michael Thomas. They also ruled five other starters out on their final injury report. Maybe the Lions can actually capitalize on their first win in forever last week? I’m probably going to kick myself for betting on Matt Patricia over Sean Payton here but I’ll say the Lions can do enough to at least keep it within a field goal. PICK: Lions +3.5

Poll

Which bet do you like more?

This poll is closed

  • 65%
    Saints -3.5
    (139 votes)
  • 34%
    Lions +3.5
    (74 votes)
213 votes total Vote Now

CLEVELAND BROWNS at DALLAS COWBOYS (-4.5): Not totally sure what to make of the Browns. They’ve bounced back since being blown out in Week 1 but they’ve also had very beatable opponents (Cincy, WFT). The Cowboys are getting Tyron Smith back, so that should only help an offense that hasn’t struggled to score so far. But Dallas still has issues on defense and that makes the points tempting here. PICK: Browns +4.5

Poll

Which bet do you like more?

This poll is closed

  • 37%
    Browns +4.5
    (88 votes)
  • 62%
    Cowboys -4.5
    (146 votes)
234 votes total Vote Now

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS at TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (-7): Justin Herbert has shown some nice potential but he’s also shown that he’s a rookie still figuring things out. He’s going to have some struggles against the NFL’s second best defense in terms of DVOA. Tom Brady, meanwhile, is coming off a strong performance. The 43-year-old still has some gas left in the tank. PICK: Buccaneers -7

Poll

Which bet do you like more?

This poll is closed

  • 26%
    Chargers +7
    (54 votes)
  • 73%
    Buccaneers -7
    (151 votes)
205 votes total Vote Now

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (-3) at CHICAGO BEARS: Ah, the ultimate “Should Of Kept!” (sic) match. Do the Eagles miss Frank Reich or Nick Foles more? That question will officially be answered by the winner of this week’s game. Seriously, though, it’s only fitting for Foles to lead the Bears to a 4-0 record while Philly continues to struggle. Bears win feels like a lock to me. PICK: Bears +3

Poll

Which bet do you like more?

This poll is closed

  • 50%
    Colts -3
    (107 votes)
  • 49%
    Bears +3
    (106 votes)
213 votes total Vote Now

ARIZONA CARDINALS (-3.5) at CAROLINA PANTHERS: Kyler Murray isn’t going to be bad as he was last week when he threw three picks. I have faith he’ll bounce back against Carolina’s 28th ranked DVOA defense. Even if he struggles to move the ball with his arm, he should be able to do damage on the ground with his legs. Carolina’s coming a nice win and I like Matt Rhule but I just do not buy Teddy Bridgewater at all. PICK: Cardinals -3

Poll

Which bet do you like more?

This poll is closed

  • 83%
    Cardinals -3
    (167 votes)
  • 16%
    Panthers +3
    (32 votes)
199 votes total Vote Now

MINNESOTA VIKINGS at HOUSTON TEXANS (-3.5): The battle of two 0-3 teams. The Vikings have been more competitive. The Texans have the better quarterback. But Kirk Cousins typically comes to play against bad teams and Justin Jefferson is a beast so I’ll actually roll with the points here. PICK: Vikings +3.5

Poll

Which bet do you like more?

This poll is closed

  • 47%
    Vikings +3.5
    (86 votes)
  • 52%
    Texans -3.5
    (96 votes)
182 votes total Vote Now

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS at CINCINNATI BENGALS (-2.5): Joe Burrow is the real deal and he’s due for his first NFL win. He picked up half of one in Philly last weekend. Now it’s time for a full one. PICK: Bengals -2.5

Poll

Which bet do you like more?

This poll is closed

  • 31%
    Jaguars +2.5
    (57 votes)
  • 68%
    Bengals -2.5
    (125 votes)
182 votes total Vote Now

NEW YORK GIANTS at LOS ANGELES RAMS (-13.5): What, pray tell, could possibly inspire you to take the Giants? They just got blown out at home by San Fran’s backups. They’re really bad. The Rams are a questionable pass interference penalty away from being 3-0. LA’s offense, which ranks first overall in DVOA, should be able to have their way with Joe Judge’s team. PICK: Rams -13.5

Poll

Which bet do you like more?

This poll is closed

  • 17%
    Giants +13.5
    (32 votes)
  • 82%
    Rams -13.5
    (153 votes)
185 votes total Vote Now

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS at KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-7): The Chiefs are a juggernaut with Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes at the helm. It’s impossible to bet against them. PICK: Chiefs -7

Poll

Which bet do you like more?

This poll is closed

  • 13%
    Patriots +7
    (24 votes)
  • 86%
    Chiefs -7
    (148 votes)
172 votes total Vote Now

BUFFALO BILLS (-3.5) at LAS VEGAS RAIDERS: Josh Allen is red hot and he could easily stay that way against the NFL’s 31st ranked DVOA defense. PICK: Bills -3.5

Poll

Which bet do you like more?

This poll is closed

  • 73%
    Bills -3.5
    (143 votes)
  • 26%
    Raiders +3.5
    (51 votes)
194 votes total Vote Now

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES at SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (-7): If you want to talk yourself into an upset scenario, you can argue the 49ers will struggle to handle the Eagles’ defensive line. Jim Schwartz will continue to own Kyle Shanahan like he has in the past. But even if that much is true, can you really rely on the Eagles offense to outpace San Fran’s production? Carson Wentz is playing like the worst quarterback in the NFL right now and his supporting cast is depleted once again. I don’t think it’s impossible that the Eagles could cover ... but I’m sure as hell not showing confidence in them to win. This has the potential to get ugly for the Birds. PICK: 49ers -7

Poll

Which bet do you like more?

This poll is closed

  • 34%
    Eagles +7
    (84 votes)
  • 65%
    49ers -7
    (159 votes)
243 votes total Vote Now

ATLANTA FALCONS at GREEN BAY PACKERS (-7.5): Call me a fool for being willing to bet on the Falcons after two epic collapses but, hey, they’re at least doing some good things to establish leads!? It’s not like they’re totally dead in the water. They can find a way to cover in a loss to Aaron Rodgers. PICK: Falcons +7.5

Poll

Which bet do you like more?

This poll is closed

  • 24%
    Falcons +7.5
    (45 votes)
  • 75%
    Packers -7.5
    (136 votes)
181 votes total Vote Now