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Before the second Sunday of the 2019 NFL regular season kicks off, let’s have some fun by taking a look at the spreads for the Week 3 games. You can CLICK HERE for straight up NFL picks without regard to the spread. You can find all of the NFL betting lines via SB Nation.
My overall record so far is 14-18-1 after going 6-9-1 last week and incorrectly predicting this week’s TNF game. I’m still doing better than the collective BGN community, which is only 11-21-1 so far.
NFL WEEK 3 GAMES
MIAMI DOLPHINS AT DALLAS COWBOYS (-22): Yeah, it’s a big spread. And Josh Rosen is starting now instead of Ryan Fitzpatrick. But what could possibly make you feel good enough to take the Dolphins here? They’re a tanking team that’s been outscored 102 to 10 in their first two games, both of which were at home. They can easily lose this game by 23 points or more. The Cowboys couldn’t have asked for an easier start to their 2019 schedule. PICK: Cowboys -22
Poll
Which bet do you like more?
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32%
Dolphins +22
(110 votes) -
67%
Cowboys - 22
(230 votes)
DENVER BRONCOS AT GREEN BAY PACKERS (-7.5): Hm, who would you rather bet on: Aaron Rodgers or Joe Flacco? Hard to say! Matt LaFleur’s offense has stalled at times through two games but the Packers will find a way to make it work with Rodgers. Green Bay’s defense shouldn’t have trouble limiting Flacco. PICK: Packers -7.5
Poll
Which bet do you like more?
This poll is closed
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22%
Broncos +7.5
(68 votes) -
77%
Packers -7.5
(237 votes)
BALTIMORE RAVENS AT KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-6): Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs are really good, yeah, but Baltimore isn’t getting enough respect here. Lamar Jackson and the Ravens have been really good, too! The Ravens almost beat the Chiefs in KC last year. The Ravens looked like the more deserving winner in that game but KC was fortunate to escape with the victory. This has the makings of another close game and the Ravens might be able to win outright. PICK: Ravens +6
Poll
Which bet do you like more?
OAKLAND RAIDERS AT MINNESOTA VIKINGS (-9): It’s nice to see people finally coming around to the realization that Kirk Cousins isn’t actually good. But one thing he CAN do is beat bad teams. Even if Cousins struggles, the Vikings had a good enough running game and defense to help him out. Plus it’s always easy to bet against the West Coast team playing a 10:00 AM PT road start. PICK: Vikings -9
Poll
Which bet do you like more?
CINCINNATI BENGALS AT BUFFALO BILLS (-6): Not totally sure what to make of this Bengals team. They played tough on the road in Seattle in Week 1 before getting blown out at home by a suspect San Francisco team in Week 2. I have my reservations about the Bills with Josh Allen under center but Buffalo does at least have a quality defense. PICK: Bills -6
Poll
Which bet do you like more?
ATLANTA FALCONS AT INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (-1): The Colts haven’t let Andrew Luck’s sudden retirement put a damper on the 2019 season to this point. The Colts fought hard in an overtime road loss to the Bolts before beating Tennessee on the road last week. Jacoby Brissett has looked pretty good along the way, throwing five touchdowns to just one interception and logging a 107.8 passer rating. Matt Ryan, meanwhile, has posted a 82.8 passer rating with five interceptions to go with the five touchdowns he’s thrown. Give me the Colts in their home opener. PICK: Colts -1
Poll
Which bet do you like more?
NEW YORK JETS AT NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-21): The Jets are on their third string quarterback. This isn’t going to go well for them. PICK: Patriots -21
Poll
Which bet do you like more?
DETROIT LIONS AT PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (-5): This line has been bet down as the week has progressed. The Eagles were favored by as much as 7.5 points earlier this week but now they’re here. It’s not hard to see why people are taking the points; the Eagles are dealing with a myriad of injuries right now. Other Eagles concerns involve an incredibly slow-starting offense, a weak point at left guard, a struggling secondary, and so on. I’m ultimately predicting the Eagles to win this game in part because they’ve been the second best home team in the NFL since 2016. The Eagles must know they can’t afford to drop to 1-2 with a road game against Green Bay coming up on Thursday Night Football. But the Lions aren’t a total pushover by any means. Detroit will be able to cover in a loss. PICK: Lions +5
Poll
Which bet do you like more?
CAROLINA PANTHERS AT ARIZONA CARDINALS (-1): The Panthers are starting “Kyle Allen” with Cam Newton out. Allen posted some good numbers against the Saints’ backups last year but that’s not enough to inspire confidence in this spot. Wouldn’t you much rather bet on Kyler Murray than Kyle Allen? PICK: Cardinals -1
Poll
Which bet do you like more?
This poll is closed
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21%
Panthers +1
(52 votes) -
78%
Cardinals -1
(187 votes)
NEW YORK GIANTS AT TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (-7): The Giants finally pulled the plug on Eli Manning. Now we’ll get to see what the G-Men look like without a totally washed up quarterback starting for them. Jones played well in the preseason so there’s some hope here for Giants fans. I really don’t love betting on Jameis Winston so I can’t take the Bucs to cover here. I think the Giants could surprise. PICK: Giants +7
Poll
Which bet do you like more?
This poll is closed
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52%
Giants +7
(128 votes) -
47%
Buccaneers -7
(115 votes)
HOUSTON TEXANS AT LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (-3): The Chargers have a number of injuries but I still like their defensive line versus a porous Texans blocking unit. Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram should be able to make life miserable for Deshaun Watson. PICK: Chargers -3
Poll
Which bet do you like more?
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS AT SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-4.5): This line feels suspiciously low. The Saints pretty dreadful with Teddy Bridgewater under center following Drew Brees’ injury. Maybe Bridgewater benefits from a week of practice as opposed to being thrown into the middle of a game but I’ll believe it when I see it. Seems possible that Bridgewater just might not be that good. Seattle’s always a tough place for road teams and I can’t see the Seahawks losing to a backup at home. 4.5 points is a reasonable amount for the ‘Hawks to cover. PICK: Seahawks -4.5
Poll
Which bet do you like more?
This poll is closed
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19%
Saints +4.5
(48 votes) -
80%
Seahawks -4.5
(199 votes)
PITTSBURGH STEELERS AT SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (-7): Maybe I’ll regret this later but I’m still not sold on the 49ers. It’s hard to know exactly what to make of Mason Rudolph but I could see Pittsburgh rallying around him and making this game competitive. PICK: Steelers +7
Poll
Which bet do you like more?
LOS ANGELES RAMS (-3.5) AT CLEVELAND BROWNS: Trusting in the Browns burned me in Week 1. I don’t feel great about Cleveland’s offensive line holding up against Aaron Donald and the Rams’ defensive front. It’s tempting to take the Browns as home underdogs but they’re coming off a short week and they’re still very much unproven. Hardly screams no-brainer to take the points. PICK: Rams -3.5
Poll
Which bet do you like more?
CHICAGO BEARS (-4) AT WASHINGTON REDSKINS: Washington stinks but so does Mitchell Trubisky. If the Bears can nearly lose to Joe Flacco — and they really should’ve lost that game in Denver — they can definitely lose to Case Keenum. Or at least fail to cover against him. PICK: Washington +4