Dakota Prescott: King of the 4th Quarter Comebacks?

[Editor's note: Promoted from the FanPosts.]

#DakVsWentz #WentzVsDak

I'm not sure if any of you have heard, but there seems to be a couple of people here and there trying to figure out who is better between Carson Wentz and Dak Prescott. The two QBs, drafted in the same draft, will be the subject of great comparisons until one of them separates themselves, best done by leading their team to a Superbowl win.

While Wentz was the #2 overall pick, Dak was pick #135, the 7th QB off the board. So, while clearly the better prospect (I don't think even Cowboys fans will argue that), Wentz went to a team devoid of talent after the Chip Kelly purge with a rookie head coach. Meanwhile, Dak went to a team that was already loaded with talent. The Cowboys, however, were picking 4th overall due to an injury to Romo, so they added arguably the best overall prospect in the 2016 Draft, Ezekiel Elliot.

But, you know the let's just get into the discussion.

Wentz fans argue that he's clearly the better passer of the two, completing 63.7% of his passes for 10,152 yards with 70TDs to 28 INTs in only 40 games compared to Dak's 66.1% for 10,876 yards with 67TDs and 25INTs in 48 games. For those scoring at home, thats 27 more yards per game, .35 more TDs per attempt, and .12 more INTs per attempt for Wentz. Throwing 33TDs in only 13 games when Dak has never thrown more than 23TDs in 16 games is also something worth noting. Wentz has also increased his passer rating every year he's been in the league, despite coming back from a 2 ligament knee tear and a broken bone in his back.

Dak fans argue that Dak is absolutely CLUTCH. The Clutchiest of Clutch! They say that his 8 comebacks and 14 game winning drives lead the league since 2016. And since football is all about WINNING (something Dallas fans born after 1985 know nothing about), that's the only argument that they need! You can keep all your worthless stats...I'll take the Winner!

But uhhhh...Hol' on There, Parrrtnerrrrr...Is Dak REALLY as clutch as he seems?

Blogging The Boys user (and Bleeding Green Nation lurker) JustB gave me the parameters at which he defined the Clutch-gene. He defines a clutch situation as Tied or Trailing by no more than 8 points in the 4th quarter or Overtime. And, though it's hard to argue clutch with, say, 10 minutes to go, I'll take those (*cough* cherry-picked *cough*) parameters and dive right in!

**Plays gathered using Pro Football Reference's Team Splits. Aggregations done by Qwest336**

By inflating the number to "Tied or Down by 8 or fewer points", you give the appearance that he's been in a lot of extremely difficult late season game situations. The Cowboys have run 323 plays tied or down by less than 8 in the last three years.

The average point differential in those 323 plays? Only -2.49 points!

That can't be right, can it? Let's break down those game situations a little deeper...

When a field goal will win the game (177 plays, 54.8% Tied or down by 2 or less) (Not much pressure, really)

73-101 for 1027 yards, 11 TDs, 0 INTs for a WHOPPING 140.99 QB Rating. (He also ran 13 times for 51 yards (including an 11 yard TD on 3rd and 2 from the 11 with 1:18 remaining) and took only 3 sacks)

  • This situation accounted for 11 4th Quarter Game Winning Drives (78.6%) !!!!

Let's dial up the "pressure" just a little bit more. When a field goal will tie the game (47 plays, 14.6% Down by 3 Points)

17-31 for 200 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs for a 74.66 QB Rating. (He also ran 2 times for 9 yards (including a 4 yard TD on 1st and goal from the 4 with 2:23 remaining (#SuperClutchy)) and took 1 sack)

  • This situation accounted for 1 4th Quarter Game Winning Drive (7.1%)

Now the pressure is really on! This is what you pay your QB for! He needs a TD to take the lead (99 plays, 30.7% Down by between 4 and 8 points)

33-58 for 432 yards, 1 TD, and 2 Ints for a 71.9 QB Rating. (He also ran the ball 4 times for 28 yards and a 1 yard TD(3rd and Goal from the 1 with 1:41 remaining))

Oh...and he's been sacked 8 times, fumbling TWICE, one for a TD (Mr. Derek Barnett)

The TD pass? 1st and Goal from the 8 with 10:28 remaining. (#SuperClutchy)

  • This situation accounted for 2 4th Quarter Game Winning Drives (14.3%)
For the bonus round, in that same span, Zeke carried the ball 16 times for 114 yards and 2TDs (14 yards, and 32 yards) and caught 3 passes for another 22 yards.

Let's recap: 85.7% of his 4th Quarter Comeback Drives were from down 3 points or fewer? And, of the 2 4th Quarter Game Winning Drives that were more than 4 points, one of them was with 10:28 seconds remaining in the 4th quarter and the other was a QB Sneak on 3rd and Goal from the ONE YARD LINE??? Now THAT is Michael Jordan levels of Clutch, my friends!

There's a lesson to be learned here...and it's one I've tried to teach before but I'm always more than happy to rehash for those that flunked the previous class...

The Fallacy of Incomplete Evidence


Oh, and one more thing...Even Jerry Jones knows Wentz is better than Dak.