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Looking ahead to the 2019 schedule and the Eagles supposedly have an easy one, as their opponent win loss record from last year is the 26th worst.
That means nothing. Preseason schedule strength has little correlation to the actual schedule strength. Just look at the last three years for the Eagles:
Strength of Schedule
Team | 2016 Pre-Season | 2016 Actual | Difference | 2017 Pre-Season | 2017 Actual | Difference | 2018 Pre-Season | 2018 Actual | Difference |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Team | 2016 Pre-Season | 2016 Actual | Difference | 2017 Pre-Season | 2017 Actual | Difference | 2018 Pre-Season | 2018 Actual | Difference |
49ers | 1 | 14 | 26 | 20 | 13 | 7 | 15 | 14 | 14 |
Bears | 30 | 7 | 3 | 19 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 32 | 32 |
Bengals | 27 | 7 | 4 | 29 | 26 | 16 | 29 | 3 | 3 |
Bills | 10 | 24 | 24 | 5 | 18 | 28 | 18 | 6 | 7 |
Broncos | 14 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 18 | 30 | 25 | 6 | 5 |
Browns | 21 | 2 | 2 | 21 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 11 | 19 |
Buccaneers | 5 | 20 | 26 | 14 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 20 |
Cardinals | 7 | 29 | 29 | 23 | 22 | 15 | 8 | 5 | 13 |
Chargers | 13 | 4 | 8 | 3 | 28 | 32 | 24 | 28 | 15 |
Chiefs | 16 | 12 | 15 | 2 | 25 | 31 | 19 | 26 | 21 |
Colts | 22 | 20 | 12 | 32 | 24 | 4 | 22 | 31 | 24 |
Cowboys | 27 | 27 | 17 | 10 | 16 | 25 | 15 | 19 | 18 |
Dolphins | 11 | 30 | 28 | 6 | 3 | 18 | 15 | 30 | 26 |
Eagles | 26 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 27 | 29 | 19 | 10 | 9 |
Falcons | 1 | 24 | 30 | 13 | 3 | 13 | 13 | 23 | 25 |
Giants | 30 | 23 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 18 | 8 | 3 | 12 |
Jaguars | 23 | 5 | 5 | 30 | 31 | 21 | 25 | 1 | 2 |
Jets | 7 | 9 | 22 | 8 | 10 | 23 | 25 | 13 | 6 |
Lions | 27 | 26 | 16 | 21 | 16 | 11 | 2 | 14 | 26 |
Packers | 32 | 12 | 6 | 18 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 20 | 30 |
Panthers | 12 | 9 | 17 | 16 | 5 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 17 |
Patriots | 9 | 32 | 31 | 12 | 23 | 26 | 22 | 23 | 15 |
Raiders | 15 | 14 | 19 | 4 | 13 | 27 | 29 | 2 | 1 |
Rams | 3 | 14 | 25 | 17 | 15 | 13 | 5 | 26 | 29 |
Ravens | 19 | 17 | 13 | 24 | 30 | 24 | 21 | 18 | 11 |
Redskins | 17 | 11 | 10 | 7 | 5 | 18 | 14 | 21 | 23 |
Saints | 4 | 6 | 23 | 15 | 8 | 12 | 2 | 23 | 31 |
Seahawks | 5 | 31 | 32 | 25 | 18 | 7 | 5 | 22 | 28 |
Steelers | 23 | 19 | 11 | 27 | 29 | 17 | 25 | 14 | 7 |
Texans | 19 | 17 | 13 | 25 | 12 | 2 | 32 | 29 | 10 |
Titans | 23 | 28 | 21 | 30 | 31 | 21 | 31 | 9 | 3 |
Vikings | 18 | 20 | 19 | 27 | 18 | 6 | 8 | 14 | 22 |
The 2016 Eagles had what appeared to be an easy schedule, turns out it was the hardest, which was really saying something considering they played the 1-15 Browns. The 2017 Eagles were thought to have had an average schedule strength, instead it was quite easy. And then last year it was harder than anticipated.
That’s because preseason strength of schedule is nothing more than the records from last year. It doesn’t account for injuries, coaching changes, free agency, or key players having down seasons or career years. The Falcons and Packers had losing records last season. Would it surprise anyone if one of them won double digit games? Or both? Or if the Vikings, who went 8-7-1, had a strong season? Or it could be even easier. The Bears are prime candidates for regression from their 12 win season. Would anyone be surprised if 42 year old Tom Brady declined, and with him the Patriots? Or if the Giants went 1-15?
Half the Eagles schedule is against teams that either should be or are trying to be in the playoffs: the Falcons, Packers, Vikings, Bears, Patriots, Seahawks, and Cowboys twice. That doesn’t seem like an easy schedule, regardless of what their record last year said.