Starting with the New York Giants’ 6th overall selection of Duke quarterback Daniel Jones, boy oh boy. Chances are he won’t start right away and Dave Gettleman has said as much. It’s Eli Manning’s job to lose and the belief is he won’t be on a short leash either. Ultimately, Jones may struggle to ever wrestle the starting job away. Why? According to my evaluation, he’s not a starting caliber quarterback.
Let’s not just trust my word on this; let’s take a look at what the analytics say about Jones.
On deep passes 20+ yards in the air, Pro Football Focus has Jones completing 24.4% of his passes with a 44.4% adjusted completion rate (25th in the class). In 45 attempts he threw 6 touchdowns and 4 interceptions for a 69 QB Rating. That’s bad, folks.
What about under pressure? Sports Info Solutions puts Jones’ QB Rating under pressure at 52.0. That’s the lowest of the 14 quarterbacks they scouted and there’s a significant gap between him and 13th. Overall, they ranked his on-target rate at 74.5%, which ranked 8th.
The accuracy issues get louder for Jones when he has to come off his first read. That’s an issue when you consider the following context:
“Jones was primarily asked to execute 0/1-step drops, RPOs, screens, and rollouts, concepts that generally indicate simpler, or even singular, reads. He did so on a whopping 72.6% of his dropbacks, the eighth-highest rate among 164 quarterbacks who dropped back 100+ times in 2018.
To give you an idea of how that might translate to the NFL, Nick Foles had the highest rate of 43 NFL quarterbacks at 58.3%. Only two other quarterbacks did so at a rate above 50%, and the average rate among quarterbacks who dropped back at least 100 times was 33.8%.” - Bryce Rossler, “And Then There Were Three”
Rossler continues by taking a larger view of Jones’ projection...
“Fit will be important for all of these quarterbacks, but it seems that Jones’ projection requires a bigger leap of faith than the others. Whereas the numbers can point to ways in which Haskins and Lock win, the statistical picture for Jones is cloudy.”
I’m of the opinion that the Washington Redskins did far better than the Giants from a value perspective. Not only was their 15th overall selection Dwayne Haskins ranked higher than Jones on my board, but they were able to land him without trading up. Rossler had more context on the difference between the two quarterbacks.
“From an Expected Points Added (EPA)/attempt perspective, Haskins (0.3) is head and shoulders above Lock (0.13) and Jones (-0.04). He’s also considerably more accurate, having delivered an on-target ball on 77% of his throws in 2018, whereas roughly 30% of passes thrown by Lock (71.4%) and Jones (71.6%) were uncatchable or required an adjustment.”
Haskins extremely low average depth of target (7.9) is valid cause for concern, but he still measured out well when he did throw the deep ball. The big difference between the two for me is what’s above the neck. Haskins’ mental processing, despite only one year of experience, appears light-years ahead of Jones on film.
While Haskins didn’t receive a first round grade from me, I’d still give the Redskins the nod if I had to compare the two. Better player, better value. All told, Haskins has an uphill battle ahead of him. The Redskins lack the weaponry to fully take advantage of his strengths, but there’s a ways to go in this draft, so I’ll reserve judgment in that regard.
You can hear more analysis about these two quarterbacks on The QB Scho Show #23! Listen to it on the media player below or click here if the player doesn’t load. New to podcasts? Check out our guide on how to listen to BGN! FLY EAGLES FLY!
FIRST ROUND ANALYSIS!— BGN Radio (@BGN_Radio) April 26, 2019
The QB Scho Show #23!@MichaelKistNFL & @MarkSchofield share some thoughts & some laughs about the quarterbacks selected in the 1st round! Plus a look ahead at day two!https://t.co/XjUcHbH9SZ
As an Eagles fan, which QB is more intimidating?
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