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2019 NFL Draft Simulation Results, Forecasts, and Projections

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In all likelihood, this is exactly what will happen.

College Football Playoff National Championship Presented By AT&T - Alabama v Clemson Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images

The Philadelphia Eagles have navigated another off season and will enter another NFL Draft in prime position: Howie Roseman continues to use free agency to set up his draft, providing the team with precious flexibility. The Eagles are certainly not pigeon-holed into any one particular strategy, which makes projecting what will happen a bit more fun.

So here is BGN’s sixth annual draft simulation, an attempt to see, project, and forecast what selections are more likely to happen at any particular point in the draft. Click here for last year’s simulation.

Each pick in the simulation is based on one fundamental decision: to pick the best player on the board or the best player at a position of need. To make this work, I compiled team needs from BGN’s sister sites (thanks BLG!) and The Draft Network, and used our own Benjamin Solak’s big board. I ran the simulation in Excel and dumped the results into Tableau so we can interact with them. If the Tableau viz doesn’t load (perhaps you’re in an AMP view), click here.

According to simulation results, the Eagles are most likely to select with the 25th pick Clemson defensive lineman Christian Wilkins (21% of the time). If the decision is based on position of need, Wilkins is selected 42% of the time. If the Eagles decision is based strictly on the best player available, then they are most likely to select either Alabama safety Deionte Thompson or Oklahoma WR Marquise Brown (each are selected 19% of the time).

Here are common selections for the Eagles in the second round:

Round 2 Pick 53

Player Selected
Player Selected
TE Jace Sternberger 20.8%
IOL Dru Samia 17.2%
CB Julian Love 13.6%
WR Deebo Samuel 10.4%
WR A.J. Brown 10.0%
IOL Michael Deiter 9.0%
S Amani Hooker 4.6%
RB Darrell Henderson 4.2%
OT Andre Dillard 3.6%
CB Saivion Smith 1.4%
EDGE Rashan Gary 1.4%
CB Deandre Baker 1.2%
WR JJ Arcega-Whiteside 1.0%
TE Irv Smith Jr. 1.0%
S Darnell Savage Jr. 0.2%
WR Kelvin Harmon 0.2%
S Juan Thornhill 0.2%

Round 2 Pick 57

Player Selected
Player Selected
RB Darrell Henderson 21.9%
WR A.J. Brown 17.3%
TE Jace Sternberger 12.0%
CB Saivion Smith 11.8%
IOL Dru Samia 9.8%
IDL Charles Omenihu 4.8%
CB Julian Love 4.0%
IDL Renell Wren 4.0%
EDGE Chase Winovich 3.8%
EDGE Anthony Nelson 2.4%
IOL Michael Deiter 2.4%
WR Deebo Samuel 2.0%
OT Andre Dillard 1.2%
S Taylor Rapp 1.0%
EDGE Rashan Gary 0.4%
S Darnell Savage Jr. 0.2%
TE Dax Raymond 0.2%
S Amani Hooker 0.2%
TE Irv Smith Jr. 0.2%
WR JJ Arcega-Whiteside 0.2%

Play around with the Tableau results above and see what you find out. For example, Kyler Murray and the Giants seem destined for each other (!).

Of course, this simulation illustrates exactly how the draft will play out. There will be no trades, and every team will make selections based on these results alone. No flaws in this model. None whatsoever.

Honestly though, flexibility is an incredibly valuable asset to possess in the NFL draft, and the Eagles own a poopton. Let’s see how Howie and Joe Douglas capitalize.