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NFL Mock Draft 2019: Green Bay Packers pick Hollywood

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With the 30th overall pick in the 2019 Bleeding Green Nation community mock draft, Green Bay Packers GM Kephas selects ...

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Oklahoma v Texas Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images

Marquise Brown, WR, Oklahoma

Before we dive in, I want you to remember the following names:

  • Donnie Avery
  • Devin Thomas
  • James Hardy
  • Eddie Royal
  • Jerome Simpson

A gold star unto you if you know the significance of these names (and bonus points if you know the name I left out).

The Pick

But let’s start where we all start: the draft board. You already know the pick, so how’d we get here? I’ll say this up front: I’m no scout. I like to watch clips of players to get a feel for them, but I’m not going to pretend I know anything about, say, footwork. Instead, my board is an aggregate of 6 Top 50 Big Boards, including those from NFL.com’s Daniel Jeremiah (DJ), Rotoworld’s Josh Norris (JN), Bleacher Report’s Matt Miller (MM), The MMQB, CBS Sports, and PFF.

Fun Fact: it took 88 players to make up a consensus Top 50 Big Board. Rather than list all 88 rows (you’re welcome), below are the players that appear on at least 5 of the 6 Top 50 Boards. A couple of notes:

  • This list is sorted by average position.
  • In addition to average, I added columns for # Times Appearing in Top 50, # Times Appearing in 1st Round (ranked 32 or higher), Highest Ranking, Lowest Ranking, Range of Ranking, and then the Split Position (middle of range).
  • I then combined the Average and Split Position into a “True Range”. Because that sounded cool.
  • (I should also note that for anyone who did not appear in the Top 50 on a board, I assigned them the value of 51. This is very likely not an acceptable statistical method, but you get the idea).

Consensus Board

Prospect POS Picked? DJ JN MM MMQB CBS PFF AVG # Top 50 # 1st Round Highest Lowest Range Split "True Range"
Prospect POS Picked? DJ JN MM MMQB CBS PFF AVG # Top 50 # 1st Round Highest Lowest Range Split "True Range"
Nick Bosa EDGE 2 1 2 1 1 1 2 1.33 6 6 1 2 1 1.5 1.3-1.5
Quinnen Williams DI 3 2 3 2 2 2 3 2.33 6 6 2 3 1 2.5 2.3-2.5
Josh Allen EDGE 4 3 6 3 3 3 5 3.83 6 6 3 6 3 4.5 3.8-4.5
Ed Oliver DI 8 4 4 7 6 4 11 6 6 6 4 11 7 7.5 06/07/05
Devin White LB 10 6 9 4 5 5 12 6.83 6 6 4 12 8 8 06/08/08
Kyler Murray QB 1 11 1 12 11 14 1 8.33 6 6 1 14 13 7.5 7.5-8.3
Jonah Williams OT/OG 9 20 14 8 15 8 4 11.5 6 6 4 20 16 12 11/05/12
T.J. Hockenson TE 20 5 11 9 9 17 21 12 6 6 5 21 16 13 12/13/19
Dwayne Haskins QB 6 21 19 11 10 13 10 14 6 6 10 21 11 15.5 14-15.5
Christian Wilkins DI 19 7 15 16 12 10 25 14.17 6 6 7 25 18 16 14.2-16
Jawaan Taylor OT 7 14 22 14 14 7 15 14.33 6 6 7 22 15 14.5 14.3-14.5
Montez Sweat EDGE 5 12 8 10 7 6 46 14.83 6 5 6 46 40 26 14.8-26
Andre Dillard OT 13 13 7 19 19 19 13 15 6 6 7 19 12 13 13-15
Rashan Gary DI 14 10 16 6 4 9 48 15.5 6 5 4 48 44 26 15.5-26
Brian Burns EDGE 12 27 5 13 21 18 14 16.33 6 6 5 27 22 16 16-16.3
Devin Bush LB 17 9 10 24 20 20 18 16.83 6 6 9 24 15 16.5 16.5-16.8
D.K. Metcalf WR 15 19 20 21 16 15 17 18 6 6 15 21 6 18 18-18
Greedy Williams CB 24 32 26 22 13 12 9 19 6 6 9 32 23 20.5 19-20.5
Byron Murphy CB 23 26 21 23 24 16 6 19.33 6 6 6 26 20 16 16-19.3
Josh Jacobs RB 27 8 32 5 8 22 51 21 5 5 5 51 46 28 21-28
Clelin Ferrell EDGE 16 22 27 17 18 11 35 21.67 6 5 11 35 24 23 21.7-23
Jeffery Simmons DI 17 38 18 30 25 8 22.67 6 5 8 38 30 23 22.7-23
Cody Ford OT 11 30 24 25 25 24 22 25 6 6 22 30 8 26 25-26
Jerry Tillery DI 35 13 39 31 32 7 26.17 6 4 7 39 32 23 23-26.2
Noah Fant TE 18 15 17 26 29 28 43 26.33 6 5 15 43 28 29 26.3-29
DeAndre Baker CB 31 45 29 17 21 16 26.5 6 5 16 45 29 30.5 26.5-30.5
Marquise Brown WR 16 31 33 23 27 31 26.83 6 5 16 33 17 24.5 24.5-26.8
A.J. Brown WR 26 36 35 20 35 34 20 30 6 2 20 36 16 28 28-30
Nasir Adderley S 29 33 28 36 27 30 27 30.17 6 4 27 36 9 31.5 30.2-31.5
Dexter Lawrence DI 28 25 30 51 22 23 32 30.5 5 5 22 51 29 36.5 30.5-36.5
Taylor Rapp S 42 23 15 34 36 38 31.33 6 2 15 42 27 28.5 28.5-31.3
Garrett Bradbury C 25 18 18 40 38 38 41 32.17 6 2 18 41 23 29.5 29.5-32.2
Drew Lock QB 24 50 31 28 26 37 32.67 6 4 24 50 26 37 32.7-37
Dalton Risner OT 40 29 49 43 45 19 37.5 6 2 19 49 30 34 34-37.5
Rock Ya-sin CB 29 39 28 40 50 51 39.5 5 2 28 51 23 39.5 39.5-39.5
N'Keal Harry WR 22 37 36 34 37 42 51 39.5 5 0 34 51 17 42.5 39.5-42.5
Chauncey Gardner-Johnson S 21 51 41 43 47 43 49 45.67 5 0 41 51 10 46 45.7-46

To narrow down my pick, I then asked:

  • Who was a consensus Top 50 player? Who was a consensus 1st Round player?
  • Who was the best fit for this team?

With the remaining group, there were some names I crossed off first:

  • I know Rodgers is now the same age Favre was when Rodgers was drafted...but I don’t think there’s an Aaron Rodgers sitting at #30 and I’m not keen on taking a QB here
  • I wasn’t looking for a CB here with Green Bay investing several top picks on CBs the previous two years (who also look like good players).
  • Like so many of us did already, I’m also passing on Jeffrey Simmons in the 1st round due to the injury & character concerns.

This basically left me with Tillery, Brown, Rapp & Risner (which would make a great law firm, btw). I ultimately picked Brown because:

  • His average ranking was the highest at 26, right in the same threshold as Jerry Tillery (#BPA), but...
  • ...unlike Tillery, Brown was a consensus 1st Round Player on 5/6 boards (and rated 33rd on the 6th). Respected former scout Daniel Jeremiah ranks Brown as the best WR in the draft. Not only that - Brown was a more consistent player in college (back-to-back 1,000 yd seasons), didn’t have the character flags, and ultimately filled a bigger need than Tillery.
  • While Rapp & Risner maybe filled some of the biggest holes on the roster, I felt they were a better value in the 2nd round (where the Packers also have an early pick) and I didn’t want to reach for need when there was a BPA.

So - agree or disagree with the outcome, thus the sausage was made. And get excited, Packers fans, because as my BGN Green Bay counterpart foretold, Aaron Rodgers is getting arguably the most exciting offensive player in the draft.

Hollywood, welcome to Titletown.

The Fit

Fun Fact: Did you know that since 2010, the Packers have made 27 picks in the first 3 rounds—but only 9 of those have been on offense and only 3 have been on WRs (1 of which was Ty Montgomery, who then became a RB). The other two: Randall Cobb & Davante Adams.

We tend to think of the Packers as the aerial blitzkrieg of Rodgers to Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, and Davante Adams. You know what those 4 WRs have in common? They were all 2nd round picks. Once upon a time, the Packers invested in Rodgers’ weapons. But Jennings & Nelson are now retired and Cobb has switched out a “G” for a Blue Star...and the Packers’ current WR corps has a lot to prove:

Davante Adams is a beast...but after him? Who else on this offense scares a defense?? Sure, Marquez Valdez-Scantling (a law firm in his own right) ran in the 4.3’s, but there’s a reason he was a 5th-round pick:

[Marquez Valdez-Scantling]’s probably not ready to help a team just yet, but his issues may be correctable so he’s worth a Day 3 selection as a stash-and-coach prospect.

Let’s also not forget that, at the outset of 2018, Rodgers infamously called out his receivers for their “piss poor” effort during practice.

The talk in Green Bay revolves around a “young and promising” WR corps...but WR is really an underrated need for a team trying to win a 2nd title for a HOF QB. Marquise Brown compliments this group really well and immediately brings a big-play, stretch-the-field element to this offense. His speed not only takes advantage of Rodgers’ cannon of an arm, but opens the field for everyone else on this team (including Jimmy Graham at TE).

Speaking of speed, did you know that Marquise Brown is fast?

The Player

If you know nothing else about Brown, know that he’s generally considered one of the fastest (if not the fastest) players in the draft. Of course, he couldn’t cement that title at the combine due to a foot injury, but he’s already been clocked at 4.33 in the 40-yard dash (only 4 players ran faster at this year’s combine).

So if the very first thing you thought of when you heard Marquise Brown was “FAST”, you probably expect that he made plays at Oklahoma like this, just simply outrunning a less-talented defense:

And he did. Several times. Even if he was doubled:

But what’s more impressive is that he’s not just a straight-line burner - he’s a polished route runner who can cut on a dime and then kick on the afterburners:

How about WR screens? New head coach Matt LaFleur loves wide receiver screens.

But you don’t need a screen or a go route to get the ball in Brown’s hands...a simple crossing route becomes the opportunity for a game-changing play:

From bombs to screens to crossers, in 2018 Brown led the nation in plays of 40+ yards (11), 50+ yards (7) and 60+ yards (4).

And you may have noticed him breaking 2 tackles on that last clip. I picked that play intentionally because the biggest knock on Brown (aside from that foot injury that is already healing well) is that he’s not all that big . In fact, at 5’10” and 168 lbs, his spider graph is basically an empty pentagon. But he’s eerily reminiscent of another small-but-fast wide receiver who Eagles fans know well.

And remember those names at the top of this post? Those are the wide receivers taken before DeSean Jackson in the 2008 draft, largely for the same reasons:

Given all the talent, teams were concerned about his size and ability to withstand hits from much bigger players. Jackson is roughly 5’10’ and weighs 175 pounds, so you can understand why teams were concerned.

11 years later - outlasting those picked before him - DeSean returns to Philadelphia to help open up an offense with Carson Wentz at the helm.

I’ll be honest - once I made this pick, I got legitimately excited for the potential Brown has in Green Bay’s offense. He brings game-changing speed & quickness that compliments the existing WR corps; he fits an offense under new coach Matt LaFleur; he gets arguably the best deep ball QB in the league; and at pick #30 he’s considered by some as the best WR in the draft.

So I’m excited to see Hollywood. And I know I’m not the only one:

Poll

Do you approve of this pick?

This poll is closed

  • 75%
    Yes
    (176 votes)
  • 24%
    No
    (57 votes)
233 votes total Vote Now

2019 BGN Mock Draft Order

1) Cardinals (Philliesandthebees): Kyler Murray

2) 49ers (SakPrescott): Nick Bosa

3) Jets (thealien2696): Quinnen Williams

4) Raiders (SisyphusNoMore): Josh Allen

5) Buccaneers (EAGLESBSU): Montez Sweat

6) Giants (ablesser88): Dwayne Haskins

7) Jaguars (20Safety_Hazards): Jawaan Taylor

8) Lions (89Tremaine): Ed Oliver

9) Bills (drc242): Jonah Williams

10) Broncos (ItownBallers22): Devin White

11) Bengals (Phoenix X Maximus): Cody Ford

12) Packers (Palaniappan K M): Brian Burns

13) Dolphins (wildcatlh): Andre Dillard

14) Falcons (Happy24): Rashan Gary

15) Washington (roberticus01): D.K. Metcalf

16) Panthers (JALupowitz): Clelin Ferrell

17) Giants (KevinDont): Devin Bush

18) Vikings (Eagles701): Noah Fant

19) Titans (Big Schmoopie): Christian Wilkins

20) Steelers (J. Wil): T.J. Hockenson

21) Seahawks (NickfoleonDynamite): Chauncey Gardner-Johnson

22) Ravens (GMinTraining): N’Keal Harry

23) Texans (EaglesRock94): Byron Murphy

24) Raiders (SummersInVA): Greedy Williams

25) Eagles (I Need a Username): Garrett Bradbury

26) Colts (Nolo0oo): A.J. Brown

27) Raiders (SLC Eagle): Josh Jacobs

28) Chargers (LBCeaglesFan!): Dexter Lawrence

29) Chiefs (Boxer Madness): Nasir Adderley

30) Packers (Kephas):

31) Rams (Matthieuck):

32) Patriots (Zett_66):

Now it’s time for you to vote for who YOU think the Packers should pick in the 2019 BGN Community Consensus Mock Draft.

Poll

Who should the Packers draft at No. 30 overall?

This poll is closed

  • 36%
    Marquise Brown
    (73 votes)
  • 9%
    Hakeem Butler
    (18 votes)
  • 6%
    Johnathan Abram
    (12 votes)
  • 3%
    Byron Murphy
    (6 votes)
  • 18%
    Chris Lindstrom
    (36 votes)
  • 12%
    Jeffery Simmons
    (25 votes)
  • 11%
    Dalton Risner
    (22 votes)
  • 4%
    Kaleb McGary
    (8 votes)
200 votes total Vote Now

2019 BGN Community Consensus Mock Draft

1) Cardinals: Kyler Murray

2) 49ers: Nick Bosa

3) Jets: Quinnen Williams

4) Raiders: Josh Allen

5) Buccaneers: Montez Sweat

6) Giants: Dwayne Haskins

7) Jaguars: Jawaan Taylor

8) Lions: Ed Oliver

9) Bills: Jonah Williams

10) Broncos: Devin White

11) Bengals: Devin Bush

12) Packers: T.J. Hockenson

13) Dolphins: Andre Dillard

14) Falcons: Rashan Gary

15) Washington: Drew Lock

16) Panthers: Clelin Ferrell

17) Giants: Brian Burns

18) Vikings: Noah Fant

19) Titans: Christian Wilkins

20) Steelers: D.K. Metcalf

21) Seahawks: Chauncey Gardner-Johnson

22) Ravens: N’Keal Harry

23) Texans: Cody Ford

24) Raiders: Greedy Williams

25) Eagles: Garrett Bradbury

26) Colts: A.J. Brown

27) Raiders: Josh Jacobs

28) Chargers: Dexter Lawrence

29) Chiefs: Nasir Adderley

30) Packers: