T.J. Hockenson, TE, Iowa
The Pittsburgh Steelers are coming off a moderately successful 2018 season. They finished 9-6-1 and just barely missed a playoff spot, edged out by a pair of 10-6 teams in Baltimore and Indianapolis. In light of that fact, the Steelers don’t have far to go to once again get into the playoff fold. This is largely – with caveats – the same team that went 13-3 in 2017 and lost in the Divisional Round to the Jaguars. They are a competitive team as constructed, but they did lose some major pieces during the offseason preceding this upcoming draft.
Chief among those losses was Antonio Brown, traded to the Raiders for 3rd- and 5th-round picks in the 2019 draft. Replacing Brown’s production will be one of the primary concerns for the Steelers going forward. He has averaged 1,523 yards receiving over the last six seasons. JuJu Smith-Schuster had an impressive sophomore campaign, surpassing even Brown himself with 1,426 yards in 2018, and he’s positioned well to take over as the new #1. The ultimate question, though, is who becomes the new #2?
Also lost during the offseason was Le’Veon Bell. He has since signed with the Jets on a four-year deal. Bell’s production likewise isn’t easy to replace, but Bell did not play for the Steelers in 2018, so this isn’t exactly a new position for the team. James Conner – similarly in his sophomore campaign – proved to have immense value as Bell’s replacement, rambling off nearly 1,000 yards in 13 games. Ultimately, though, the Steelers’ rushing production has declined over the last two years. They hit 1,760 rushing yards in 2016, 1,667 in 2017, and a mere 1,445 last year. That rushing total put the Steelers at 31st overall in the league. Finding a supplement to Conner is another question mark for the Steelers’ offense going forward. Offensively, the Steelers as a whole need to find better balance between their passing and rushing attacks.
The final two primary pieces the Steelers lost were Jesse James at tight end (signed with Detroit), and L.J. Fort at linebacker (signed with Philadelphia). Not surprisingly, these two positions are also considered positions of need for the Steelers in 2019. Both players were moderate contributors. Not as crucial, but nonetheless, the team will likely look to the draft for additional support at these positions. At tight end, the team is left with Vance McDonald to anchor the unit, and he’s struggled to stay healthy his entire career. Xavier Grimble behind him hasn’t done much in three years with the team to prove his own reliability. To help bolster the linebacker core, anyway, the Steelers did sign Mark Barron away from the Rams. Barron has been gradually declining throughout his career, so he appears more of a stopgap or backup rather than a long-term solution.
Aside from wide receiver, running back, tight end, and linebacker, another critical need for the Steelers is at cornerback. They managed to sign former Kansas City Chief Steven Nelson to a three-year deal as of March 15th. He should challenge for – if not outright own – the outside corner spot opposite Joe Haden. Nelson started all sixteen games for the Chiefs last year and, theoretically, removes the need for the Steelers to reach for a corner immediately during the draft. Artie Burns and Cameron Sutton have both struggled in that position, but they are both young (Sutton drafted in 2017, Burns in 2016) and maintain potential room for growth.
The Steelers have relatively limited needs along the offensive line. The starters have had a remarkable run, where they’ve played essentially three entire seasons together (absent RT Gilbert for ’17 and ’18). As such, they were one of the strongest pass-protecting units in the league, allowing only 24 sacks all season (4th best in the NFL). PFF graded them as the top overall unit in 2018. They weren’t quite as effective in the run game, but the Steelers don’t run the ball a whole lot (second-fewest attempts). Despite that, their efficiency statistics were still in the top-half of the league.
Since last season, however, a couple important changes have occurred. The Steelers traded former starting right tackle Marcus Gilbert to Arizona for a 6th-round pick. He struggled to stay on the field the last two years with injury and suspension. It appears backup Matt Feiler is the heir apparent, though the Steelers have drafted a pair of tackles recently. Last year it was Chukwuma Okorafor, who will probably compete for the starting spot at RT. Fourth-round pick of 2016, Jerald Hawkins, is more a wild card and unknown quantity. He spent last season on injured reserve.
The Steelers additionally lost their offensive line coach, Mike Munchak, to Denver. They did re-up the expiring contract of Ramon Foster (guard), but with a new offensive line coach coming in, it remains to be seen exactly how the crew will operate. Regardless, all four remaining starters (Villanueva, Foster, Pouncey, and DeCastro) are aged 30, 33, 29, and 29, respectively. Finney, the primary backup at center and guard, is 27. It won’t be too much longer before the team needs to think about long-term replacements at all spots.
Statistically speaking, the Steelers mostly held their own in comparison to their counterparts. Their biggest struggles were in the running game offensively, where as I previously mentioned, the Steelers need to develop one that can better complement the prolific passing attack. They ranked 4th in total yards-per-game, mostly hung on their 2nd-best passing yards-per-game figure. The running game was second-to-last in both yards-per-game and attempts-per-game. The defense, meanwhile, was top-10 in most categories, most notably tied for first in sacks (52). The one notable low-point was in interceptions, where the Steelers ranked 28th with only eight picks all year, perhaps signaling a need for playmakers in the back eight. In efficiency terms, the Steelers were mostly above-average, though they have room for improvement on special teams (27th) and defense (13th).
General Manager Kevin Colbert prefers to go into a draft without needs so the team can focus solely on “wants” or best player available (“BPA”), and his free agent acquisitions mean the team isn’t hurting badly at any one position, necessarily. With that said, and given this overview of the team, I would prioritize their needs as follows: LB, TE, WR, CB, RB, and OG. Quarterback is a “sneaky” need in that, eventually, Roethlisberger is going to hang up the cleats, and right now there is no undisputed answer for the Steelers. They did move up in the third round last year to draft Mason Rudolph. It is probable Pittsburgh sees him as the future. Present backup Josh Dobbs was taken in the fourth round of the 2017 draft. Considering these expenditures, it seems unlikely they draft another QB this year, but not impossible.
Presently undetermined is whether the Steelers sign any further free agents to help bolster the squad first. Note that the Steelers are relatively low on cap space. Any more signings will certainly require contractual maneuvering.
And with that proper “State of the Team” address, we get to the draft itself.
As of the publishing date of this writing, the Steelers own ten draft picks in the 2019 draft. Aside from your seven standard picks, they own an extra third and two extra sixth-round picks. Given the already competitive nature of the team and lack of truly significant holes in multiple areas, I’d estimate there is a high probability that the Steelers do not personally use all ten of their picks this year.
How about some historical context to help decipher their possible draft day strategies? General Manager of the Steelers, Kevin Colbert, was hired in 2000. Since then, out of 18 possible drafts, Colbert has made draft day trades during 11 of those drafts, or 61% of the time. However, he’s been rather quiet over the last five years. Last year was the first year they made a draft day trade since 2013, acquiring an extra third for Martavis Bryant and using it to move up and grab Rudolph. Prior to 2014, the Steelers made moves almost every year, excluding only three years between 2001 and 2013 (2002, 2005, and 2011).
Colbert has executed a total of 13 trades during the draft. Of those 13 trades, eight were trades upward in the draft, or 62%. The remainder included either four trades down and a “wash,” or what could possibly be considered five trades downward (during the 2009 draft, the Steelers moved a 2nd and a 4th for two of Denver’s 3rd-round picks).
With those calculations and assumptions in mind, what are all the possible draft and/or trade scenarios for the team come Draft Day?
TRADING UP – This seems like the most reasonable and practical use for their picks during the draft. The better question, of course, becomes in what round do the Steelers move up? I cannot answer that with certainty, but the Steelers moving up in the first round – perhaps to target one of two primary linebacker prospects or one of two primary tight end prospects – is not out of the question. As usual, the true answer is “it depends.” How does the board fall, does the team actually rate these targets, etc. In terms of probability weighted against all three possible scenarios, I’d give the Steelers a 60% chance of packaging some picks and moving up at some point during the draft.
TRADING DOWN – This scenario seems considerably less likely given the team already owns ten picks. The wild card is whether they value picks in a future draft at a better margin. In other words, would they prefer to parlay picks from this draft into picks for the 2020 or even 2021 draft? Adding more picks this year, however, would appear doubtful. The Steelers are crunched on cap space as it is, to where even signing ten new players may be a tall task. It is certainly possible, at least at pick #20, that all their primary targets are off the board. In that event, the Steelers either decide to trade down (perhaps gathering future picks instead) or simply select their highest rated target, even if it might be considered a “reach.” Assuming these conditions, I’d estimate the Steelers aren’t likely to move down absent a trade involving future picks or a move in conjunction with another trade. Only a 10% chance.
STAYING PUT – The final possibility is the most obvious: the Steelers staying put and selecting ten players, as is. I think this is less possible than the Steelers trading up, mostly because of their salary cap situation and due to the lack of need for a rebuild. In my mind, the Steelers would benefit better from quality over quantity, at this time. I’m also considering GM Kevin Colbert’s proclivity for activity during the draft. Still, they have been quieter in recent years, and they may just find everything they need in 2019, so give them a 30% chance of staying put.
These are the possibilities come April 25th for the Steelers. Since this community mock draft does not involved trades, however, I – as GM – am tasked with nothing more than selecting the best player available for the Pittsburgh franchise. With that in mind, let’s mercifully move onto the pick itself.
With the 20th pick in the 2019 NFL Draft, the Pittsburgh Steelers select . . .
T.J. Hockenson, Tight End, Iowa Hawkeyes
Truthfully, I was a tad surprised to see Hockenson make it to the 20th pick in our mock. When it came down to it, a few things stuck out to me as to why Hockenson should be the pick. First and foremost, he already looks fantastic in black and gold. Kidding…mostly.
The true primary reason I would add Hockenson to the Steelers at this point of the draft: he was my best player available. Drafting can be a somewhat simple game when you stick to the BPA tenement. No doubt, there were other players I considered in this spot (and I will get to those options later), but in my mind, Hockenson was the best overall left. This is a guy with potential Top-10 value. Let’s keep it simple. It is merely a coincidence that tight end also ends up being a fairly significant need for the Steelers, which in context, strengthens the case for nabbing T.J.
Losing Jesse James has left the team thin at tight end. Vance McDonald has not played a full 16 games once in his six-year career. Moreover, picking Hockenson tangentially fills another need: wide receiver. He’s more than competent in that role and has shown tremendous hands, even working over-the-top of the defense. Adding T.J. means there’s less pressure to grab a premium receiver prospect. That allows the Steelers to remain agile for the remainder of the draft.
Furthermore, the ability to provide an instant impact is important for a first-round pick. Although the position is notoriously difficult to transition into coming out of college, I believe Hockenson can provide some of things the Steelers need on offense right away. Mostly, he’s a complete player at the position, if there ever was one. With his blocking prowess, he can immediately boost a Steelers’ run game that was one of the least productive in the league. He can even provide some of those versatile H-back schematic devices. He’s a matchup problem for defenses with his route-running, catching, and athleticism. Even without production on paper, his presence alone or in blocking situations means he’s a versatile asset.
Finally, Hockenson just fits in Pittsburgh, and by that I don’t mean schematically, alone. He’s a tough, hard-nosed, blue-collar workhorse. If you could simply define “football player,” a picture of Hockenson should accompany the definition. Having lived in the city for a few years now, I can genuinely say they’ll absolutely love the guy, especially when you include all the intangibles he brings. He can potentially fill the hole left by another first-round tight end beloved in Pittsburgh, Heath Miller.
But enough talk! Let’s get to the measurables and game tape and see what all the hype is about.
Initially, let’s check out Hockenson’s athletic qualities.
Hockenson posted a relative athletic score of 9.21. Among draft-eligible tight ends, that ranks him fourth overall behind his teammate Noah Fant, LSU’s Foster Moreau, and San Diego State’s Kahale Warring. We can see from the card that most of his measurables are well above average, with the lone exception coming in the bench press. At 17 reps, he tied for 12th alongside the combine participants. The average was 18.5 reps. Those figures include the numbers Drew Sample, Caleb Wilson, and C.J. Conrad posted at their respective pro days.
His spider graph is less impressive, but it clearly skews downward because Hockenson isn’t the biggest tight end ever. Outside of his physical size, his athletic attributes are all outstanding for a guy with his skill set. Again, the one raw data point working against T.J. is his bench. I’ll address whether this and his size are concerns when detailing any negative attributes.
First, though, let’s start with what Hockenson does well.
As we see, Hockenson’s athleticism is a big plus. There are examples on tape that demonstrate exactly what he’s capable of during an actual game.
The initial evidence we have of Hockenson’s explosiveness is this hurdle over a helpless Penn State defender. This isn’t the first time T.J. has done this, either.
Here he does it again, this time over a Northwestern defender that just looks silly. Hockenson’s measurables demonstrate an elite explosive ability, and these are just a couple examples that show how the gym workouts are no charade.
In this next example, we can see a strong demonstration of T.J.’s short-area speed, leaping ability, and hands. He catches the linebacker flat-footed and blows right by him into the endzone. Then he high-points the football and latches onto it with his hands, brings it into his body, and manages to get both feet in-bounds.
Now we have a good example of Hockenson’s runaway speed. Here, he breaks a tackle, maintains his balance, and turns the corner, managing to outrun two of Indiana’s defensive backs on his way to the endzone. He might be deceptively fast considering his overall 40-time. Hockenson does not lack game speed.
As another demonstration of his speed, here Hockenson initially engages the defender as if he’s blocking. Aside from his strong and powerful blocking technique, he quickly whips out of the block and runs right by the Illinois corner. By the time the corner realizes what has happened, he’s already three yards out of the play and unable to catch Hockenson.
In this next clip, we get an impression of what other skills and traits Hockenson brings to the fold. This is the perfect display of “finishing.” Hockenson does an excellent job just to square up his target from an initial awkward angle. What he follows that with is a complete power move, aggressively blocking his target down the field until he can be sure the play is dead.
Finally, this clip gives a good show of Hockenson’s receiver package. He blows through a crowd at the line of scrimmage, runs his route at the proper post angle, and eventually locks onto the football and makes the catch. The ball was a tad underthrown, for sure, but Hockenson does a good job tracking the ball with defenders around (concentration) and makes the catch.
It isn’t all roses and pixie dust with Hockenson. Objectively, he’s a thorough and ready tight end prospect, but a couple main points stick out as to his negatives.
- Hockenson will sometimes take a bad angle on a block. Perhaps he underestimates his speed or overestimates his ability to recover, but he’ll occasionally miss a block both in line and at the second level. Example:
- Some may consider Hockenson’s lack of physical size as a negative. He doesn’t have elite traits in that regard, but he compares physically to someone like Tyler Eifert. Eifert hasn’t had trouble performing in the league, rather injuries have consistently held him back, but his ability is undeniable.
- T.J. likely needs to get stronger. He’s not a wimp, by any means, and he’s unlikely to have reached physical maturity already, but in the NFL, there are always concerns some of his weaknesses will be exploited by the elite league-wide talent, and his overall speed may not be as “flashy” at the next level.
- He’s sometimes prone to catching more with his body than his hands. He has quite effective hands, as well, so there’s no need for it. It can’t always be prevented depending on pass trajectory, but I would like to see him catch away from the body in certain circumstances or he’s susceptible to drops.
I honestly think Hockenson’s negatives are a tad nit-picked. He remains a complete player you can place in-line as a blocker, put him in the spread as a deep threat, or move him out of the backfield as a fullback or receiver. He only had one rushing attempt in his college career (for a touchdown, no less), but perhaps his potential there is untapped or underrated.
T.J. will immediately insert into the Steelers’ two tight end sets. In 2017, the Steelers ran 28% of their offense out of formations with at least two tight ends (most notably 12- and 22-personnel). That number decreased a bit in 2018. However, Jesse James was never much of a blocker. Adding Hockenson will allow the Steelers to be more versatile on offense and should decrease their reliance on the downfield passing game. If McDonald once again can’t stay healthy, T.J. will likely compete for the starting role. Coming out of Iowa, we know Hock has good fundamentals. It is only a matter of how quickly he can digest the playbook. He’s got a good head on his shoulders, so it shouldn’t be long.
I think T.J. is the most complete player the Steelers can grab in this particular mock at position #20. He is arguably a Top-10 contender in this class, and has potential as an immediate asset, but invariably, the best laid plans may go awry. The Steelers do have other options, many of which I considered and will briefly detail below.
While my selection is a combination of prediction, fit, and subjective best player available, there are plenty of other names to keep an eye on with the Steelers on the clock. Here are my top alternative choices available for the Steelers at the 20th pick if the draft fell another way:
- Devin Bush, LB, Michigan – The second Devin, though not available in this mock, is a probable target for the Steelers in the draft. There’s a realistic scenario where the team actually trades up to get him in the first round, if deemed necessary. Bush is a versatile linebacker that can help the Steelers sideline-to-sideline, including on blitzes and coverages. He’s strong and fast, but it matters whether he’ll get plenty of help on this Steelers’ defense like he did in Michigan. Devin White would be #1 and could also be included here, though it’s more likely he’ll be the first LB taken and unavailable.
- N’Keal Harry, WR, Arizona State – Here’s your Antonio Brown replacement kit. Harry looks the part of a top-flight receiver. He may lack top-end burner speed on the outside, but his physical tools give him the potential to make a nice complement to JuJu. He’s physical, strong, and able to make plays in tight spaces. Basically, he’ll outwork most corners even if he can’t run by them.
- Mack Wilson, LB, Alabama – Wilson is an interesting possibility. He competes with the best overall linebackers in the class and could conceivably be a target for the Steelers in the first if both Devins go off the board early. Wilson had a down year last year that has ultimately hurt his draft positioning, so many would consider him going 20th a “reach,” but the Steelers did a similar thing last year taking Edmunds in Round 1. Wilson seems like a great fit for the versatility of the Steelers’ defense.
- Greedy Williams, CB, LSU – Adding Nelson means the Steelers don’t necessarily have to target a corner at all in this draft, but it’s still potentially a need with the future of Artie Burns up in the air and Sutton’s development uncertain. The Steelers struggled to make plays defensively and force turnovers. Williams had six interceptions as a freshman and eight in two years. He’s got the length, speed, and raw instincts to make an attractive case in the first round for a press-heavy scheme.
- Deandre Baker, CB, Georgia – Like Williams, Baker is another press-man corner that could thrive in the right scheme. He’s not as “toolsy” as Williams, but he’s slightly better in terms of ball skills, physicality, and perhaps more developed or refined than Greedy, right now. Baker has quickness but lacks long speed, and his stature may hurt his stock somewhat, though he seems like a guy Pittsburgh could target. Competitive by nature.
- Marquise Brown, WR, Oklahoma – Maybe instead of taking the big and physical receiving threat, the Steelers try to recapture the magic that was supposed to accompany Dri Archer back in 2014. Brown has been productive in his own right – how could he not be receiving catches from back-to-back Heisman winners – but he’s a different threat than Harry. His small stature is made up for with explosive athleticism. We didn’t get to see him workout thanks to injury. Still, he’ll probably be one of the top-five receivers selected on draft day. Oh, he’s Antonio Brown’s cousin? Hmm…could make for an awkward family Thanksgiving dinner.
Honorable mentions: D.K. Metcalf, WR, Ole Miss; A.J. Brown, WR, Ole Miss; Byron Murphy, CB, Washington; Cody Ford, G/T, Oklahoma; Nasir Adderley, S, Delaware; Noah Fant, TE, Iowa
IMPLICATIONS FOR THE EAGLES
Since this is a Philadelphia Eagles site, first and foremost, I figured I’d add a section to address any possible draft implications for the Eagles based on potential targets or moves the Steelers may make.
Though they have some similar needs (mostly at LB, WR, and less so CB and RB) the Steelers play in a specific defensive scheme (3-4) that utilizes different types of players than what the Eagles may seek or prioritize. The biggest differences are up front: the Steelers emphasize blitzing their linebackers and moving them around, from hand-in-the-ground to dropping into coverage. Meanwhile, Schwartz doesn’t do much blitzing, at all, and prefers to play in a base nickel, which means only two backers are on the field most of the time.
The wide-nine up front means the Eagles are also looking for a different type of defensive lineman, whereas the Steelers like their ends (namely 5-techs) huge and powerful to take up space. They also use a true nose tackle, which is a relative oddity anymore. Schwartz can get away with smaller and quicker ends while countering them with bigger 3-technique tackles.
Where the teams might have more overlap is on the offensive side of the ball.
At WR, it would appear both teams want the same thing. The Eagles have some young guys in Hollins and Gibson that have yet to truly break out in any meaningful way. Agholor has improved quite a bit, but it’s possible the team trades him or cannot afford him beyond this season.
The Steelers are in a similar situation. JuJu has shown himself to be a reliable target now and into the future for them. After JuJu, there are many question marks. Switzer, Washington, and Rogers are all relative unknowns. They’ve provided small contributions, but it remains to be seen if any of them can run away as the second or third option. Moncrief was a decidedly average second or third target in Jacksonville, grading out to only a 62.3 according to PFF, and finished tied for 63rd in yards-per-route-run. That said, it’s hard to fully evaluate him in that offense considering the QB situation.
Both teams may also look to target a running back prospect. The Eagles are heavy on numbers but light on pedigree. The Steelers have what looks to be a true three-down back in Conner, but the depth is questionable even if they believe Samuels can make the backup job his own. I’m not sure either team will necessarily target a three-down workhorse. They both may focus more on a mid-to-late round role player to be another cog in their machine, if they pick one at all.
As for any potential draft day trades between the two, I’d say that’s rather unlikely. None of Colbert’s draft day trades have involved the Eagles. Overall, the Eagles and Steelers don’t trade with each other all that often. You can count the number of trades between the two teams on one hand:
- 2015 – Brandon Boykin to the Steelers for a 5th-round pick in 2016
- 2013 – Felix Jones to the Steelers for Adrian Robinson (RIP)
- 2003 – Freddie Milons to the Steelers for nothing (conditional pick never conveyed)
A fourth trade involving Hugh Douglas and the Jets indirectly got the Steelers a 2nd-round pick from Philadelphia, but there have been only three direct trades all-time with the Steelers.
Also consider that the Eagles generally pick after the Steelers in a draft where the Steelers are more likely to trade up than down, and there’s even less reason to predict any interaction between the two. There’s always a slight chance the Steelers steal a player the Eagles are after, perhaps most likely in the 2nd round when they pick back-to-back, barring trades.
In summation, there probably won’t be many complications for the Eagles stemming from the Steelers draft, though they both could have similar targets offensively at wide receiver and/or running back. What makes the draft so entertaining, however, is that no one can reliably predict what is going to happen.
Thanks for reading and enjoy the draft!
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2019 BGN Mock Draft Order
1) Cardinals (Philliesandthebees): Kyler Murray
2) 49ers (SakPrescott): Nick Bosa
3) Jets (thealien2696): Quinnen Williams
4) Raiders (SisyphusNoMore): Josh Allen
5) Buccaneers (EAGLESBSU): Montez Sweat
6) Giants (ablesser88): Dwayne Haskins
7) Jaguars (20Safety_Hazards): Jawaan Taylor
8) Lions (89Tremaine): Ed Oliver
9) Bills (drc242): Jonah Williams
10) Broncos (ItownBallers22): Devin White
11) Bengals (Phoenix X Maximus): Cody Ford
12) Packers (Palaniappan K M): Brian Burns
13) Dolphins (wildcatlh): Andre Dillard
14) Falcons (Happy24): Rashan Gary
15) Washington (roberticus01): D.K. Metcalf
16) Panthers (JALupowitz): Clelin Ferrell
17) Giants (KevinDont): Devin Bush
19) Titans (Big Schmoopie): Christian Wilkins
20) Steelers (J. Wil): T.J. Hockenson
21) Seahawks (NickfoleonDynamite):
22) Ravens (GMinTraining):
23) Texans (EaglesRock94)
24) Raiders (SummersInVA):
25) Eagles (I Need a Username):
26) Colts (Nolo0oo):
27) Raiders (SLC Eagle):
28) Chargers (LBCeaglesFan!):
29) Chiefs (Boxer Madness):
30) Packers (Kephas):
31) Rams (Matthieuck):
32) Patriots (Zett_66):
Now it’s time for you to vote for who YOU think the Titans should pick in the 2019 BGN Community Consensus Mock Draft.
Who should the Steelers take at No. 20 overall?
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2019 BGN Community Consensus Mock Draft
1) Cardinals: Kyler Murray
2) 49ers: Nick Bosa
3) Jets: Quinnen Williams
4) Raiders: Josh Allen
5) Buccaneers: Montez Sweat
6) Giants: Dwayne Haskins
7) Jaguars: Jawaan Taylor
8) Lions: Ed Oliver
9) Bills: Jonah Williams
10) Broncos: Devin White
11) Bengals: Devin Bush
12) Packers: T.J. Hockenson
13) Dolphins: Andre Dillard
14) Falcons: Rashan Gary
15) Washington: Drew Lock
16) Panthers: Clelin Ferrell
17) Giants: Brian Burns
18) Vikings: Noah Fant
19) Titans: Christian Wilkins