The line actually opened with the Eagles as standard 3-point home favorites, which didn’t make much sense. Accordingly, the line has since shifted to the Eagles only being favored by 1.5 points. This movement tells us a lot of money is coming in on the Seahawks’ side.
And who could blame people for betting on Seattle? Not me. There are a number of things in their favor:
- Russell Wilson is arguably the NFL MVP through Week 11. He has 26 combined passing and rushing touchdowns to just two interceptions. Wilson is 3-0 against the Eagles and he’s accounted for eight touchdowns and zero turnovers in those three games.
- The Seahawks are 18-8-2 against the spread as road underdogs since the Wilson era began in 2012. That nice 69.2% cover percentage ranks first in the NFL during that span. The Seahawks are 12-15-1 straight up in those game, which is good for the fourth best winning percentage.
- The Seahawks are coming off a bye after previously becoming the only team to defeat the San Francisco 49ers so far this season. Seattle is 7-1 in their last eight games right after the bye.
- Seattle’s only two losses have come to the Baltimore Ravens and New Orleans Saints.
On the other hand, it’s not like the Seahawks are some unbeatable juggernaut. Their biggest win came by in 17 points against the Arizona Cardinals in Kyler Murray’s fourth NFL start. All other seven Seahawks victories — including two overtime games — have been within one score. Winning one score games typically isn’t sustainable considering the amount of luck that influences outcomes.
Still, it’s hard to feel great about the Eagles where they’re at right now. The defense has inspired some confidence but Wilson is a different animal than Josh Allen, Mitchell Trubisky, and an aging Tom Brady. And even if the defense does step up again, how are you possibly supposed to feel good about this Eagles offense?
The Eagles have been a pretty good team at Lincoln Financial Field since the Doug Pederson and Carson Wentz era began in 2016. They’re 19-5 straight up as home favorites, which is the fifth best winning percentage in that span.
But that’s about the best reason for optimism I can come up with. Taking the points is the better bet.
What say you?
Which bet do you like more?
This poll is closed