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NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 11 Games

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Here are some suggestions when trying to beat the odds.

Super Bowl LII - New England Patriots v Philadelphia Eagles

Before the eleventh Sunday of the 2019 NFL regular season kicks off, let’s have some fun by taking a look at the spreads for the Week 11 games. You can CLICK HERE for straight up NFL picks without regard to the spread. You can find all of the NFL betting lines via DraftKings SportsBook.

My overall record so far is 73-71-5 after going 7-5-1 last week and incorrectly predicting this week’s TNF game. I’m still doing better than the collective BGN community, which is 69-75-5 so far.

NFL WEEK 11 GAMES

BUFFALO BILLS (-6.5) at MIAMI DOLPHINS: The Dolphins have looked competitive in their last five games and they’ve even won two in a row. Miami was about to go up 12 points on the Bills when they played in Buffalo last month. The Dolphins should be able to at least keep this one close against a Bills team that isn’t as good as their record suggests. PICK: Dolphins +6.5

Poll

Which bet do you like more?

This poll is closed

  • 54%
    Bills -6.5
    (54 votes)
  • 46%
    Dolphins +6.5
    (46 votes)
100 votes total Vote Now

HOUSTON TEXANS at BALTIMORE RAVENS (-4.5): Tough one that I’m going back and forth between. On one hand, Lamar Jackson is red hot. On the other hand, Deshaun Watson’s not so easy to bet against and Houston’s coming off their bye. I think the Ravens ultimately have the edge in coaching so I’ll lean with Baltimore. PICK: Ravens -4.5

Poll

Which bet do you like more?

This poll is closed

  • 36%
    Texans +4.5
    (36 votes)
  • 63%
    Ravens -4.5
    (62 votes)
98 votes total Vote Now

DALLAS COWBOYS (-7) at DETROIT LIONS: The Cowboys are 2-4 in their last six games but they should be able to handle a Lions team starting Jeff Driskel in place of Matthew Stafford. As faithful BGN Radio listeners would know, the moment is too big for Driskel. PICK: Cowboys -7

Poll

Which bet do you like more?

This poll is closed

  • 65%
    Cowboys -7
    (63 votes)
  • 34%
    Lions +7
    (33 votes)
96 votes total Vote Now

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-5) at TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS: The Saints will bounce back this week after an inexplicably bad home loss to Atlanta last Sunday. The Bucs are allowing the most points per game (31) in the NFL and Jameis Winston has 16 combined interceptions and fumbles in his last four starts. How are you possibly betting on that team? PICK: Saints -5

Poll

Which bet do you like more?

This poll is closed

  • 72%
    Saints -5
    (65 votes)
  • 27%
    Buccaneers +5
    (25 votes)
90 votes total Vote Now

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS at INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (-2.5): There’s a 100% chance Nick Foles is going to lead the Jags to victory in his first game back from injury on the same day the Birds will probably lose to the Pats. You can already imagine the “Foles > Wentz” takes that will occur. The Jaguars are a lock here. PICK: Jaguars +2.5

Poll

Which bet do you like more?

This poll is closed

  • 65%
    Jaguars +2.5
    (56 votes)
  • 34%
    Colts -2.5
    (29 votes)
85 votes total Vote Now

DENVER BRONCOS at MINNESOTA VIKINGS (-10): Be wary of the trap game scenario here with the Vikings coming off a big win over Dallas on Sunday Night Football. Could be a letdown spot for the Vikings as they overlook Denver ahead of their bye. The Broncos’ ninth ranked DVOA run defense could help make this game competitive even if Minny wins. PICK: Broncos +10

Poll

Which bet do you like more?

This poll is closed

  • 36%
    Broncos +10
    (31 votes)
  • 63%
    Vikings -10
    (53 votes)
84 votes total Vote Now

NEW YORK JETS at WASHINGTON REDSKINS (-2.5): Why are the hell is Washington favored? They’re starting a rookie quarterback in Dwayne Haskins who’s looked absolutely lost (zero touchdowns, four interceptions). Sam Darnold is much better than Haskins and the Jets have an above average defense. Easy decision to take the points. PICK: Jets +2.5

Poll

Which bet do you like more?

This poll is closed

  • 81%
    Jets +2.5
    (70 votes)
  • 18%
    Washington -2.5
    (16 votes)
86 votes total Vote Now

ATLANTA FALCONS at CAROLINA PANTHERS (-4.5): The Falcons sure showed signs of life with a big upset in New Orleans last week. It’s not crazy to think they could pull off another NFC South victory against a Panthers squad that’s unsustainably over-reliant on Christian McCaffrey to win. The points are too tempting not to take. PICK: Falcons +4.5

Poll

Which bet do you like more?

This poll is closed

  • 26%
    Falcons +4.5
    (22 votes)
  • 73%
    Panthers -4.5
    (62 votes)
84 votes total Vote Now

ARIZONA CARDINALS at SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (-9.5): The Cardinals only lost to the 49ers by three points when these two teams last played on Halloween. I like Arizona to cover against a San Fran team playing on short rest. Kyler Murray is making progress; the rookie quarterback has a 109.0 passer rating in his last two starts. PICK: Cardinals +9.5

Poll

Which bet do you like more?

This poll is closed

  • 48%
    Cardinals +9.5
    (38 votes)
  • 51%
    49ers -9.5
    (40 votes)
78 votes total Vote Now

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-4) at PHILADELPHIA EAGLES: It’s sure hard to feel great about the Eagles’ chances in this spot. Philly’s going to be without both Alshon Jeffery and Jordan Howard against the league’s top defense. And yet, there still some reasons for Eagles optimism. The Eagles might be able to win in the trenches and Doug Pederson could out-scheme Bill Belichick as he’s done once before. I’m predicting this game to end in a tie (lol) so I’ll take the points. PICK: Eagles +4

Poll

Which bet do you like more?

This poll is closed

  • 49%
    Patriots -4
    (60 votes)
  • 50%
    Eagles +4
    (61 votes)
121 votes total Vote Now

CINCINNATI BENGALS at OAKLAND RAIDERS (-11.5): What would possibly inspire you to take the Bengals? The Raiders are 12th in DVOA while Cincy checks in at 31st. Jon Gruden is actually doing a nice job. PICK: Raiders -11.5

Poll

Which bet do you like more?

This poll is closed

  • 21%
    Bengals +11.5
    (16 votes)
  • 78%
    Raiders -11.5
    (58 votes)
74 votes total Vote Now

CHICAGO BEARS at LOS ANGELES RAMS (-6): Mitchell Trubisky’s “good game” against Detroit last week was a mirage. I know Jared Goff has been struggling but I’m still not betting on Trubisky. This selection will be regrettable if Chicago’s defense can shut down the Rams’ offense like it did last year. Sean McVay’s offense hasn’t been the same ever since. PICK: Rams -6

Poll

Which bet do you like more?

This poll is closed

  • 43%
    Bears +6
    (33 votes)
  • 56%
    Rams -6
    (43 votes)
76 votes total Vote Now

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-4) at LOS ANGELES CHARGERS: The Chiefs should be favored by more at this neutral field location in Mexico City. Kansas City’s loss to the Titans last week was bad, yes, but that was a classic Andy Reid letdown game. Big Red’s team will bounce back on Monday Night Football. The Bolts are ranked 19th in DVOA; they’re not any good. PICK: Chiefs -4

Poll

Which bet do you like more?

This poll is closed

  • 71%
    Chiefs -4
    (55 votes)
  • 28%
    Eagles +4
    (22 votes)
77 votes total Vote Now