For the second time since February 2018, the Philadelphia Eagles are underdogs heading into a game hosted at U.S. Bank Stadium.
The first time worked out pretty okay.
This time around, the Eagles will be facing the team that actually regularly plays their home games at U.S. Bank: the Minnesota Vikings.
In case you forgot, the Vikings are the team that traded a first-round pick and a fourth-round pick to the Eagles for Sam Bradford. Doesn’t ring a bell? They’re the team that the Eagles obliterated in the 2018 NFC Championship Game, 38 to 7. Still not remembering? They’re the team that blew a Week 17 game at home last season to allow the Eagles to get into the 2019 NFL playoffs. Ah, yes, those Vikings!
Minnesota will surely try to avoid having this week’s game be the latest entry into the Eagles’ history of embarrassing them.
According to the DraftKings Sportsbook, the Vikings are favored in this matchup. They opened as standard 3-point home favorites but the line has since shifted down to 2.5 points. This indicates the early money is coming in on the Eagles.
But are the Birds really a wise investment?
Consider the Vikings are 22-10-1 as home favorites since the Mike Zimmer era began in 2014. That’s the best cover percentage in the league during that span. The Vikings are 26-7 straight up in those games, which is the third best home winning percentage only behind The Losers Of Super Bowl LII and the Green Bay Packers.
More recently, the Vikings are 6-2-1 against the spread as home favorites since Kirk Cousins took over as the Vikings’ staring quarterback. That’s the second best cover percentage in the league during that span. The Vikings are 7-2 straight up in those games.
The Eagles, meanwhile, are 9-7 against the spread as road underdogs since the Doug Pederson and Carson Wentz eras began in 2016. That’s good for the 14th best coverage percentage. They are 7-9 straight up in those games, which is actually the eighth best win percentage. One of those road underdogs wins includes the Eagles’ Week 4 upset victory over the Packers at Lambeau Field.
It took a big effort from the Eagles to win in Green Bay. Beating the Vikings in Minnesota this weekend will prove to be another significant challenge. If we know anything about Doug Pederson’s teams, it’s that they’ll often fight their hardest when their backs are up against the wall. It’d be unwise to discount the Eagles entirely in this one.
How are you feeling about this week’s game?
Which bet do you like more?
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