If you can’t get up for a Carson Wentz vs. Luke Falk showdown, you don’t have a pulse. Or you’re an extremely sensible person that understands that the upcoming Eagles-Jets tilt is more walk-through than serious contest. At least that’s how things should play out.
On The Kist & Solak Show #127 we start out weekly two-part preview serious by examining the punch-less New York Jets’ offense. They’ll be operating without Sam Darnold, which we discovered during our recording. It leaves the Jets with few options in which to find offensive success.
The first option is trusting the noodle-armed Falk to complete several of these deep outs to Robby Anderson against the Cover 10-Yards Off defense of Jim Schwartz on their way to a red zone trip and a field goal...
The second option is to go run-heavy with Le’Veon Bell and Ty Montgomery. The Jets acquired both this offseason and so far it’s yielded poor results. For example, I created a metric I’m lazily calling “Boom-Bust” for running backs. This compares 10+ yard runs vs. zero and negative yard runs. Over the past 3 years, Bell provided the second best boom differential in the NFL.
In 2019, and keep in mind this is an incredibly small sample size, Bell ranks dead last in this metric among the 38 qualifiers. Simply, he’s providing very little boom, especially when compared to how much he’s being stuffed at or behind the line of scrimmage. It’s an extremely inefficient run game and has led to Bell averaging only 2.9 yards per carry.
Why would that be? Over the past three years the Pittsburgh Steelers’ offensive line has ranked in the top half of the league in Football Outsiders’ Adjusted Line Yards metric (3rd > 7th > 15th). The Jets’ offensive line currently ranks dead last in this same metric. There’s not much any running back can do behind this line and the Eagles’ defense should have no issue getting the Jets into disadvantageous down and distance situations. It also bodes well for the pass rush, which should dominate from bell-to-bell.
If you work out the line from DraftKings Sportsbook, Vegas expects the Jets to put up around 15 points. We explain in further detail why we took the under on The Kist & Solak Show #127! Listen on the media player below or click here if the player doesn’t load. New to podcasts?! Check out our guide on how to listen to BGN! FLY EAGLES FLY!