Eagles are 5-point favorites back at home against da Bears

Home sweet home.

The Philadelphia Eagles are finally back at Lincoln Financial Field this Sunday after an, uh, adventurous three game road trip. This week’s opponent features a team they previously defeated back in January: the Chicago Bears.

A number of things have changed for these two teams since that Wild Card round matchup. Carson Wentz will be under center for the Eagles instead of Nick Foles this time, for example.

But there are a lot of constants as well. The Bears are still struggling to make game-winning field goals, as seen in their Week 8 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers. Eddy Pineiro’s failed attempt from 41 yards out gave Chicago their third loss in a row.

A much, much bigger issue for the Bears than their kicker is their starting quarterback. Mitchell Trubisky ranks 27th out of 33 qualified quarterbacks in passer rating (81.4) this season. He’s thrown just five touchdowns to three interceptions. Three of those touchdown passes came against a 1-7 Washington team. The other two occurred during garbage time in a loss to the New Orleans Saints.

With the Eagles bouncing back with a win in Week 8 and the Bears on the schneid, it’s no surprise that former is favored to win this week. DraftKings Sportsbook actually has the Eagles as five-point home favorites, which is more than the standard three-point line.

Do the Eagles really deserve the respect they’re getting given their inconsistency this season? Here are some trends to consider:

• The Eagles are 13-10 against the spread as home favorites since the Doug Pederson and Carson Wentz eras began in 2016. That’s the sixth best cover percentage in that span.
• The Eagles are 18-5 straight up as home favorites since 2016. That’s the sixth best winning percentage.
• The Eagles are 22-7 overall at home since 2016, which is tied with the Minnesota Vikings for the second best winning percentage. Only the New England Patriots rank better.

And on the other side:

• The Bears are 5-5 against the spread as road underdogs going back to 2017, which is when the Mitchell Trubisky era began.
• The Bears are 3-7 straight up as road underdogs since 2017, which is only the 21st best winning percentage.
• More recently, the Bears are 2-0 against the spread and 1-1 straight up as road underdogs since the Matt Nagy era began in 2018. Small sample size.
• The Bears are 7-3 in 10 overall road games during the Nagy era, including a 2-0 mark this year (wins against the Broncos and Washington).

One thing the Bears have going for them is that their defense is still very good. Chicago’s defense is allowing the second fewest points per game and the fourth fewest yards per play. This unit could challenge an Eagles offense that has struggled to start fast.

Still, I feel good about the Eagles this week. Jim Schwartz’s defense held up well against a bottom tier starting quarterback in Josh Allen this past Sunday. I think Trubisky could similarly struggle in this one. At the very least, I certainly trust Wentz to outperform him. Not to mention the potential return of DeSean Jackson could also be a big deal for the Eagles’ offense.

What’s your early feeling on this game?