This line is interesting because you’d think the 5-1 Bills would at least be standard three-point home favorites over the 3-4 Eagles, who’ve been outscored 75 to 30 over the last two weeks. But that’s clearly not the case.
On one hand, there’s reason to believe the Bills are a good team. Again, they’re 5-1, and their one defeat was a six-point loss to the 7-0 New England Patriots. Buffalo’s defense is allowing the third fewest points per game (15.2). Only the aforementioned Patriots and the undefeated San Francisco 49ers have been better.
On the other hand, the Bills haven’t exactly had a tough schedule. The five teams they’ve beaten include: the 1-5 New York Jets, the 2-5 New York Giants, the 0-7 Cincinnati Bengals, the 3-4 Tennessee Titans, and the 0-6 Miami Dolphins. Speaking of the Fish, the Bills almost went down 12 points to them at home in the third quarter this past Sunday before Ryan Fitzpatrick threw a goal-to-go interception. The Bills’ have the third weakest strength of victory in the league and they only rank 21st in DVOA. Even Bills fans are questioning just how good their favorite team is. Just check out this post from Buffalo Rumblings titled: “5-1 should feel better than this.”
The Bills might not be so good but it’s not like the Minnesota Vikings and Dallas Cowboys were playing great football before blowing out the Eagles. Philadelphia clearly has a lot of issues they need to fix in a short amount of time.
History might also be working against the Eagles. A 2017 mid-October study showed that away teams were 35-69 straight up in the third matchup during three game road trips. Moreover, the Bills are 9-1 straight up as home favorites since the Sean McDermott era began in 2017. That’s the third best home winning percentage during that span, which only ranks behind the Indianapolis Colts and the Patriots. The Doug Pederson and Carson Wentz Eagles, meanwhile, are just 7-11 straight up as road underdogs since 2016.
The Eagles could really use a win this week. Not only to save the season, which is kind of important, but also to help silence all the off-field noise that this team has been dealing with.
Can they pull it off or will the struggles continue?
Which bet do you like more?
This poll is closed