Home teams in a typical matchup are usually favored by three points, so this line is actually showing a little respect to the Eagles. And the line has actually since moved to the Cowboys being favored by just two points, which indicates some early money is being bet on Philly.
Truth be told, there are reasons to feel bad about both of these bets. The Eagles’ offense can’t start fast and the defense is entirely shreddable. The Cowboys, meanwhile, have lost three games in a row due to poor coaching and injuries, among other issues. Which team can you really trust?
History might not be on the Cowboys’ side in this one. Dallas is 19-34-1 against the spread as home favorites since Jason Garrett became the full-time head coach in 2011. That’s the 30th best cover percentage in that span; only the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Cleveland Browns have been worse. The Cowboys are 35-19 straight up in those games, which is only good for the 18th best win percentage. Here’s even more context:
The Cowboys are 9-19-2 ATS when favored by three points or less under Jason Garrett.— BobCrossingBroad (@BobWankelCB) October 14, 2019
They’re also 2-8 ATS and 3-7 straight up when favored by three points or less at home under Jason Garrett.
More recently, the Cowboys are 11-11-1 against the spread as home favorites since the Dak Prescott era began in 2016. That’s tied with five other teams for the 10th best cover percentage. Dallas is 16-7 straight up in those games, which is tied for the 14th best winning percentage.
As for the Eagles, they’re 9-8 against the spread as road underdogs since the Doug Pederson and Carson Wentz eras began in 2016. That’s only good for the 20th best cover percentage. The Eagles are 7-10 straight up in those games, which is the 10th best winning percentage. One of those 10 losses was obviously the Eagles’ Week 6 defeat to the Minnesota Vikings.
The Cowboys had the Eagles’ number in 2018 as Dallas swept the rivalry series last season. But the game in Dallas went into overtime and easily could’ve been won by Philadelphia if not for maybe the most inexplicable phrase I’ve ever heard: “No clear recovery.”
The feeling here is that this line will continue shift in the Eagles’ favor as the week progresses. Especially if it’s looking like DeSean Jackson will play and the Cowboys get some bad news on their injury front. Speaking of ...
ALERT: We’re told Amari Cooper (quad) is in danger of not playing for #Cowboys ... and that OTs Tyron Smith & La’el Collins continue to struggle with their injuries, too. Rough deal for #Eagles prep. pic.twitter.com/rj8DhwkyrX— mike fisher ✭ (@fishsports) October 15, 2019
I’d take the Eagles getting points while I still can because I believe Doug Pederson was right: the Eagles are going to go down to Dallas and beat the Cowboys.
Which bet do you like more?
This poll is closed