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Before the sixth Sunday of the 2019 NFL regular season kicks off, let’s have some fun by taking a look at the spreads for the Week 6 games. You can CLICK HERE for straight up NFL picks without regard to the spread. You can find all of the NFL betting lines via DraftKings SportsBook.
My overall record so far is 34-42-3 after going 5-8-2 last week and correctly predicting this week’s TNF game. I’m still doing better than the collective BGN community, which is 32-44-3 so far.
NFL WEEK 6 GAMES
CAROLINA PANTHERS (-3) at TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS: Are the Panthers really about to go 4-0 with Kyle Allen starting for them? It just feels like they’re due for a loss. The Bucs previously did a good job of limiting Christian McCaffrey, who has been on fire lately, in their 20 to 14 win over Carolina in Week 2 (18 touches for just 53 yards and 0 TD). I like the home dogs to win outright here. PICK: Buccaneers +3
Poll
Which bet do you like more?
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52%
Panthers -3
(78 votes) -
47%
Buccaneers +3
(70 votes)
HOUSTON TEXANS at KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-3.5): Patrick Mahomes has looked pretty mortal in his last two games with just one touchdown pass thrown. He’ll get back on track here with a big performance against Houston. Andy Reid versus Bill O’Brien is also a big coaching mismatch in Kansas City’s favor. PICK: Chiefs -3.5
Poll
Which bet do you like more?
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES at MINNESOTA VIKINGS (-3.5): Tough to get a good feel for this game. The Vikings should be able to exploit the Eagles through the air but Minnesota might unwisely choose to hand off the ball against Philadelphia’s stout run defense. Kirk Cousins could light it up but he could also easily screw it up for his team. Carson Wentz and Doug Pederson should be able to at least keep this one very close. Even if you like the Vikings to win, the points should be tempting. I’m taking an Eagles win outright but it’s a very close call. PICK: Eagles +3.5
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Which bet do you like more?
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78%
Eagles +3.5
(144 votes) -
21%
Vikings -3.5
(39 votes)
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-1) at CLEVELAND BROWNS: Hm, tough call. Do you go with leading MVP candidate Russell Wilson? Or Baker Mayfield playing behind a struggling behind a bad Browns offensive line? It should also be noted Seattle has a rest advantage since they last played at home on Thursday Night Football while Cleveland played away on Monday Night Football. PICK: Seahawks -1
Poll
Which bet do you like more?
CINCINNATI BENGALS at BALTIMORE RAVENS (-10.5): My first impression is that 10.5 points feels like a lot for a Ravens team that hasn’t looked so hot lately. And, yet, have you seen the Bengals play? Because they’re not very inspiring. Cincy actually ranks as the second worst NFL team in DVOA, only ahead of Miami. We’ve previously seen the Ravens capable of beating up on bad teams. PICK: Ravens -10.5
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Which bet do you like more?
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30%
Bengals +10.5
(44 votes) -
69%
Ravens -10.5
(99 votes)
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS at JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (-2.5): Gardner Minshew is looking like the real deal but the Saints’ defense should give him a good test. Teddy Bridgewater is coming off his best statistical performance of the season. Even if the Saints don’t win, they’ll probably find a way to at least keep this close. The points are too tempting not to take. PICK: Saints +2.5
Poll
Which bet do you like more?
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73%
Saints +2.5
(103 votes) -
26%
Jaguars -2.5
(37 votes)
WASHINGTON (-3.5) at MIAMI DOLPHINS: Washington will experience that in-season coaching change bump this week. They’ll be going all out to beat a Dolphins team that’s actively trying to lose this season. All Washington will accomplish by winning is ruining their position in the 2020 NFL Draft. PICK: Washington -3.5
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Which bet do you like more?
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71%
Washington -3.5
(97 votes) -
28%
Dolphins +3.5
(38 votes)
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS at LOS ANGELES RAMS (-3): The 49ers are for real. The Rams are about to find that out. Give me San Fran over a Los Angeles team led by Jared Goff, who has thrown just 14 touchdowns to 15 interceptions in his last 13 starts. PICK: 49ers +3
Poll
Which bet do you like more?
ATLANTA FALCONS (-3) at ARIZONA CARDINALS: Lol, why are the Falcons favored here? They’ve looked like hot trash and they’re a dropped Nelson Agholor touchdown pass away from being 0-5. The Cardinals, while flawed, have at least shown some signs of promise. I’ll bet on Kyler Murray’s upside as he’s getting the points at home. PICK: Cardinals +3
Poll
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DALLAS COWBOYS (-7) at NEW YORK JETS: There is zero chance the Cowboys lose this game. But they are potentially playing without both starting offensive tackles against a solid Jets defense that ranks 10th in DVOA. Sam Darnold returning also gives New York *some* kind of boost on offense. The Jets will find a way to cover but they definitely won’t win. PICK: Jets +7
Poll
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TENNESSEE TITANS at DENVER BRONCOS (-1): Hard to know what to make of this Titans team on a week-to-week basis. They’re not awful but they’re not great. Tennessee actually ranks lower than Denver in DVOA, so, I’ll side with the analytics here in a toss up. PICK: Broncos -1
Poll
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PITTSBURGH STEELERS at LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (-6): The Steelers are starting undrafted rookie free agent “Devlin Hodges” at quarterback. I don’t love his chances to outplay Philip Rivers. PICK: Chargers -6
Poll
Which bet do you like more?
DETROIT LIONS at GREEN BAY PACKERS (-3.5): The Lions are coming off their bye and they’re not that far off from being 4-0 right now. They’ll probably be able to cover in a three-point loss here. And yet I’m still tempted to side with Aaron Rodgers in a game at Lambeau. PICK: Packers -3.5