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NFL Picks Against the Spread 2019: Divisional Round Playoff Games

Here are some suggestions when trying to beat the odds.

Philadelphia Eagles v New Orleans Saints Photo by Wesley Hitt/Getty Images

Before the Divisional Round of the 2019 NFL playoffs kicks off, let’s have some fun by taking a look at the spreads for today’s games. (Click here for Divisional Round picks without regard to the spread.)

Here are suggestions when trying to beat the odds. You can find all of today’s NFL betting lines and more via SB Nation. My overall record is now 125-128-7 after going 2-1-1 in the Wild Card round.

Divisional Round Games

Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs (-5): The Chiefs haven’t won a home playoff game since the 1993 season. They’re 0-6 in their last six home playoff games. There is one man who can save them, though, and that’s Pat Mahomes. I like the Colts a lot and I definitely think there’s upset potential here. That’s why I wouldn’t advise touching this line; the Colts could still very well cover in a Chiefs win. But since I have to make a pick for this exercise, I’ll go with KC at home. Their defense is less horrible at Arrowhead Stadium, thanks in part to having one of the league’s loudest crowds. Please don’t make me regret this, Andy Reid. PICK: Chiefs -5

Dallas Cowboys at Los Angeles Rams (-7): You know how some teams really play up to the level of their competition? The Cowboys don’t do that. Instead, they drag you down to theirs. The Dallas defense is legitimately good and it should be able to stifle the overrated combination of Sean McVay and Jared Goff. All that talk about “NFL teams are looking for the next McVay” is going to look so silly as he drops to 0-2 in the playoffs. Ezekiel Elliott is going to be able to feast against a Rams defense that ranks 28th in run defense. I just don’t see how you couldn’t think this game will at least be close given how the Rams have struggled against playoff caliber teams. Also it’s not like the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum offers a tremendous home field advantage. There will be plenty of bandwagon Cowboys fans in LA on Saturday night. PICK: Cowboys +7

Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots (-4): Tom Brady is 19-3 at home in the playoffs. The Patriots are 106-18 at home in all-time games started by Brady. History says not to bet against the Pats, even if they’re looking more vulnerable than usual. I do like the Chargers, so it’s nothing against them. But it’s back-to-back East Coast road trips for them and they’ll also have to deal with cold weather (high of 29 degrees). PICK: Patriots -4

Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans Saints (-8): I’ve written it a billion times by now: I just don’t know why you’d bet against this Eagles team. They just find a way to win. I know the Saints are really good at home. I know the Saints beat the Eagles 48-7 the last time these two teams played in Week 11. But I don’t care. The Eagles have a great head coach in Doug Pederson. Nick Foles is playing at a very high level. The entire team is really stepping up. It won’t be easy but the Eagles have what it takes to win in New Orleans. At the very least, I don’t see them not keeping it close. The Eagles are a group of underdogs seeking revenge with nothing to lose. They’re dangerous. PICK: Eagles +8

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