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NFL Picks Against the Spread 2018: Week 4 Games

Here are some suggestions when trying to beat the odds.

Indianapolis Colts v Philadelphia Eagles Photo by Elsa/Getty Images

Before the fourth Sunday of the 2018 NFL regular season kicks off, let’s have some fun by taking a look at the spreads for today’s games. (Click here for NFL Week 3 picks without regard to the spread.)

Here are suggestions when trying to beat the odds. You can find all of today’s NFL betting lines and more via SB Nation. My season record so far is 15-32-1. I’m off to a miserable start but the good news is you can count on taking the opposite of what I suggest. Let’s get to the picks.

NFL Week 4 Games

Philadelphia Eagles (-3) at Tennessee Titans: The Eagles are a bad matchup for the Titans. Tennessee is going to try to run the ball a billion times and Philadelphia’s defense should be able to stop it. That’s going to force the Titans into situations where Marcus Mariota, who doesn’t even have feeling in some of his fingers, to throw more often than they’d like. Carson Wentz figures to be sharper this week, especially since he’s potentially getting Alshon Jeffery back. Eagles advance to 3-1. PICK: Eagles -3

Buffalo Bills at Green Bay Packers (-9.5): Can the Bills shock the world for the second week in a row? I think some will be tempted to take the points here given Green Bay’s loss last week. But I expect Aaron Rodgers to bounce back at home. The Bills aren’t going to catch a team off guard for the second week in a row. PICK: Packers -9.5

Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys (-3): Given how bad my picks have been this season, I’d like to think I can jinx the Cowboys by taking them. PICK: Cowboys -3

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Chicago Bears (-3): If I had faith that Mitchell Trubisky could merely be average instead of bad, the Bears would be a no-brainer pick. Chicago’s defense is really good and I think they can slow down this Bucs offense. But it’s tough when the Bears have to win in spite of their QB. I guess I’ll go with Chi-town because maybe Ryan Fitzpatrick will be good for some turnovers again. PICK: Bears -3

New York Jets at Jacksonville Jaguars (-7.5): I’d love to be proven wrong here but this feels like a really tough spot for 21-year-old rookie quarterback Sam Darnold. The Jags are poised to bounce back after losing at home last week. PICK: Jaguars -7.5

Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-7): Screw it. I’m taking the undefeated Dolphins. The Pats dynasty is clearly crumbling after losing to Nick Foles in the Super Bowl. PICK: Dolphins +7

Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (-1): Andrew Luck clearly isn’t the same Andrew Luck we used to know. So I think that makes this game winnable for a winless Houston team. The Colts’ defense should give Houston’s offensive line trouble. But I just feel like the Texans are due for a win. They’re more desperate here. PICK: Texans +1

Cincinnati Bengals at Atlanta Falcons (-3.5): The Bengals suffered a 10-point loss to Carolina on the road last week. I think the Falcons are better than Carolina and I think Atlanta is primed to bounce back after a tough loss in Week 3. PICK: Falcons -3.5

Seattle Seahawks (-3.5) at Arizona Cardinals: Maybe Josh Rosen comes in and makes the Cards look competent. I’m not just going to assume that until I see it. He could struggle against Seattle’s defense. The Seahawks could also very well blow this game on the road. PICK: Seahawks -3.5

Cleveland Browns at Oakland Raiders (-3.5): Count me in as a Baker Mayfield believer. Do not count me in as a Jon Gruden believer. PICK: Browns +3.5

San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Chargers (-10.5): The Bolts should be able to beat C.J. Beathard with ease. PICK: Chargers -10.5

New Orleans Saints (-3.5) at New York Giants: The Saints’ defense hasn’t been good. They could easily leak some points to a Giants team that showed signs of life in their win last week. Still don’t think the Giants defense will be able to contain the Saints’ office, though. PICK: Saints -3.5

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3): This is probably just going to be a three-point game anyway so it doesn’t matter who you pick. I’d lean with the home team. PICK: Steelers -3

Kansas City Chiefs (-5) at Denver Broncos: I mean, how could you bet against the Chiefs right now? They’re red hot. You really taking Case Keenum over Pat Mahomes? I didn’t think so. (Classic Andy Reid letdown ensues.) PICK: Chiefs -5