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2018 Mock Draft Grades: scoring the experts

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Nobody got the Eagles pick right

NFL: NFL Draft Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

The 2018 NFL Draft came and went last week, and the entire mock draft community moved on to the next one. Not us. For the fourth straight year, we’ve graded high profile mock drafters or NFL writers. And as always for fun we include the BGN community mock draft to see how they stack up against the pros.

The scoring system is simple and unrelenting. One point is given for each selection a pick is off by, so for example mocking Lamar Jackson 5th overall when he went 32nd would be 27 points. Predicting a trade incurs a penalty of double points.

2018 Mock Draft Scores

Name Score Correct Worst Pick
Name Score Correct Worst Pick
Mike Mayock 174 2 Derrius Guice 32nd (actual: 59th)
Todd McShay 177 5 James Daniels 21st (actual: 39th)
Rob Rang 178 3 Harrold Landry 18th (actual: 41st)
Mel Kiper 188 5 Courtland Sutton 19th (actual: 40th)
Evan Silva 195 5 Justin Reid 28th (actual: 68th)
Lance Zierlein 208 4 Isaiah Oliver 18th (actual: 58th)
Daniel Jeremiah 226 5 Isaiah Oliver 24th (actual: 58th)
Luke Easterling 226 5 Derrius Guice 28th (actual: 59th)
Albert Breer 227 3 Josh Jackson 18th and Derrius Guice 32nd
Peter King 229 1 Josh Jackson 14th (actual: 45th)
Dane Brugler 236 3 Justin Reid 28th (actual: 68th)
Pete Prisco 250 4 Josh Jackson 15th (actual: 45th)
Josh Norris 269 4 Justin Reid 23rd (actual: 68th)
Dan Kadar 290 2 Sam Hubbard 25th (actual: 77th)
Matt Miller 300 2 Mason Rudolph 23rd (actual: 76th)
Mike Florio 313 2 Mason Rudolph 31st (actual: 76th)
BGN Community Mock 418 1 Maurice Hurst 30th (actual: 140th)
Brinson 419 2 Maurice Hurst 25th (actual: 140th)
Farrar 419 1 Maurice Hurst 18th (actual: 140th)
Palazzolo 519 1 Maurice Hurst 4th (actual: 140th)

Best drafter: Mike Mayock had the best score, edging out Todd McShay on the back of more near misses. In addition to his two hits, Mayock was off by one slot on 5 players, and 2-5 slots on 18 other picks. Coworker Daniel Jeremiah had, along with Luke Easterling, Mel Kiper, and Evan Silva the most correct picks, he nailed the first three picks and then Roquan Smith and Mike Glinchey. In the four years I’ve done this, Jeremiah is consistently the best. He took home top honors the first two years, and in the last two nobody had more correct picks. A former scout himself and plugged in around the league, he’s established himself as the best mock drafter.

Worst drafter: Doug Farrar missed out on his third straight title last year, and this year was saved only by Steve Palazzolo of Pro Football Focus, who mocked eight players that didn’t go in the first round, most notably Maurice Hurst, who he had go fourth overall but went in the 5th round. Despite getting the #1 pick right, his top 10 was a disaster, along with Hurst 4th overall he had 2nd round draft picks Josh Jackson and Harold Landry go 6th and 9th overall, respectively, and Saquon Barkley fall to 10th. Ouch.

Hurst, along with Derrius Guice, are good example who is simply guessing and who has their ear to the league. Hurst fell due to serious health concerns, Guice to character issues. Hurst was only in four drafts, Guice was not a 1st rounder in half of them.

Most common miss: 11 mock drafters had the Bengals taking center Frank Ragnow at 20th overall. But at 19th overall, the Lions took him, which nobody predicted. The Bengals did draft a center in Billy Price, so the mockers were probably right in that if Ragnow was on the board that he would have been the Bengals pick.

Three mock drafters, Luke Easterling, Mike Mayock, and Matt Miller, had Cameron Sutton and Harold Landry go back to back. Which they did. In the 2nd round.

Kudos: Once again the BGN community mock did better than professionals, beating out Doug Farrar, Will Brinson, and Steve Palazzolo. And Mike Florio, who readily admits he doesn’t care, doesn’t really try and offers no explanations for his picks, beats out several guys who spend countless hours on theirs. And that’s the only reason I include him in these.

Last year coworkers Evan Silva and Josh Norris took home the best and worst scores. This year they had 8 identical selections, though only one of them, Saquon Barkley, was correct.

LOL: The 2018 Draft was fun and a bit crazy because of the all the QB movement, but Saquon Barkley to the Giants seemed set in stone since about February. Four mock drafters: Mike Florio, Steve Palazzolo, Pete Prisco, and Lance Zierlein, along with the BGN community mock, got it wrong.