The Eagles are scheduled to draft dead last in the 1st round because they finished 1st in the league when they won the Super Bowl. Trade backs from the end of the 1st round are common, as teams make the determination that getting an extra pick (and in a couple of cases, multiple extra picks), is better than staying put and getting an optional fifth year out of a 1st round pick. Two is often better than one.
With no picks in the 2nd or 3rd round this year, and only 6 total picks, it’s a safe bet the Eagles will move back. Their only option to do so and acquire a decent pick is to trade out of the 1st. What can we expect them to get? Looking back at comparable trades since the 2011 CBA that slotted rookie contracts, it’s pretty clear.
2011: Patriots traded 26th to Saints for 56th (late 2nd) and a 2012 1st
2012: Ravens traded 29th to Vikings for 35th (early 2nd) and 98th (early 4th)
2012: Broncos traded 31st and 126 (late 4th) to Buccaneers for 36th (early 2nd) and 101st (early 4th)
2013: Patriots traded 29th to Vikings for 52nd (late 2nd), 83rd (late 3rd), 102nd (early 4th), and 229th (mid 7th)
2014: Seahawks traded 32nd to Vikings for 40th (early 2nd) and 108th (early 4th)
2016: Chiefs traded 28th and 249th (late 7th) to 49ers for 37th (early 2nd), 105th (early 4th), and 178th (early 6th)
2017: Packers traded 29th to Browns for 33rd (early 2nd) and 108th (early 4th)
2017: Seahawks traded 31st to 49ers for 34th (early 2nd) and 111th (early 4th)
We can see a set asking price for a late 1st of an early 2nd and an early 4th. If the Eagles get lucky, they might be able to squeeze out a 6th. They could also add a later pick to get another earlier pick.
Interestingly, the price for a QB isn’t steep here, the 2014 trade was for Teddy Bridgewater. If a QB falls, the Eagles won’t be able to hold them for ransom, especially with Cleveland having the next pick almost certainly taking a QB at either 1st or 4th.
Given that the Eagles already have two 4th rounders, adding another doesn’t seem like it would help much. But it would give them an additional pick to use to trade up into the 3rd. More on that another day, but spoiler alert: two 4ths can get you a 3rd. A 1st for a 2nd and half a 3rd sounds a little better.
So let’s assume the Eagles are very interested in moving back. Who might be very interested in trading up?
As we see above, Rick Spielman loves to move up into the end of the 1st, but that’s not going to happen with the Vikings this year.
Cleveland is a candidate, the Browns have 9 picks, 5 of which are in the first two rounds: 1st, 4th, 33rd, 35th, and 64th. In the past two seasons they’ve made 23 picks, 17 of which are on the roster. They’re going to run out available roster spots for draft picks, and with a new front office that is no longer interested in stockpiling picks, they seem likely to make a move up somewhere. With so many high picks, they can afford to give up a 4th, which would give them three 1st rounders in back-to-back years.
The Colts have three 2nd rounders, including back-to-backs at 36 and 37. With so many holes on their roster they should probably stand pat or even trade back, but they currently have 9 picks, so it wouldn’t be shocking to see them get their rebuild underway with an additional 1st rounder.
The 49ers also have 9 picks, two of which are 3rd rounders, so moving up from the 2nd round would still give them 4 top 100 picks.
The Bears 2nd round pick is 39th and they have a pair of 4th rounders. They’ve been aggressive in both free agency and the draft in the past two seasons, including trading up in the 1st last year. They’re a team to watch as well.
The Cardinals have two 3rd round picks, so they could also afford to part with a 4th. Even though they just dropped the GDP of a Caribbean nation on Sam Bradford and Mike Glennon, if there’s a QB that drops to the end of the round (which means they would have passed on him at 15), they might move up.
The Bills have 9 selections, including two in each of the top three rounds. They’ll look to spend that draft capital on moving up high to get a QB, but after giving away a former All Pro and a pair of young starters in trades last year, anything is possible with them.
The Raiders have 11 picks and have been doing silly things all offseason.
The Packers have an astounding 12 picks, with multiple picks in the 4th through 7th rounds.
The Bengals have 11 picks, including two 3rds, three 5ths and three 7ths. But the Bengals don’t make draft day trades. Since 2011 they’ve made three (3).
The Cowboys have 10 picks, but with the draft in Dallas, giving the Eagles more selections to announce in their house seems far fetched, which is a shame because it would be hilarious.