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NFL Picks Against the Spread 2018: Week 12 Games

Here are some suggestions when trying to beat the odds.

Philadelphia Eagles v New York Giants Photo by Steven Ryan/Getty Images

Before the twelfth Sunday of the 2018 NFL regular season kicks off, let’s have some fun by taking a look at the spreads for today’s games. (Click here for NFL Week 12 picks without regard to the spread.)

Here are suggestions when trying to beat the odds. You can find all of today’s NFL betting lines and over/unders via SB Nation. My season record so far is 71-87-3 after going 6-7 last week.

NFL Week 12 Games

Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals (-1): The 5-5 Bengals at home in a pick ‘em against a 3-win Browns team seems like easy call. PICK: Bengals -1

Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers (-3): The Seahawks rank 8th in DVOA and 11th in point differential. By comparison, the Panthers rank 15th and 14th, respectively. The better team is getting the points here. PICK: Seahawks +3

Jacksonville Jaguars (-3) at Buffalo Bills: Gross. Both of these teams stink. I guess I think Josh Allen could struggle against Jacksonville’s defense, which still ranks sixth in DVOA. Blake Bortles could easily be horrible as well. I hate everything. PICK: Jaguars -3

Oakland Raiders at Baltimore Ravens (-11.5): Very bad West Coast team traveling east to play a 1:00 PM ET start? Doesn’t seem like a prime spot for an Oakland upset. PICK: Ravens -11.5

San Francisco 49ers (-1.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Some places have the Buccaneers favored by two but I saw one line that actually has Tampa Bay getting 1.5 points at home. I think the Bucs are due to bounce back against undrafted rookie free agent quarterback Nick Mullens. PICK: Buccaneers +1.5

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-5.5): This line had the Eagles favored by as much as seven points but has since dropped. The shift can likely be explained by Philadelphia potentially being without their top five cornerbacks as they try to defend Odell Beckham Jr. Not ideal. The Giants aren’t actually good but the Eagles are just too hard to trust right now. Philly might win but it’s hard to count on them covering a spread this big. PICK: Giants +5.5

New England Patriots (-10.5) at New York Jets: Tom Brady was listed on the injury report this week but it sounds like he’s OK. The Pats should be able to handle the Jets with ease. PICK: Patriots -10.5

Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Chargers (-13.5): If the Cardinals can lose to Oakland, they can also fail to cover this 13.5-point spread. The Bolts are poised to rebound after last week’s disappointing loss to Denver. PICK: Chargers -13.5

Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts (-7.5): The Dolphins are getting Ryan Tannehill back, but who cares? Miami isn’t good and the Colts much very are. Frank Reich is doing a great job in Indy. The offensive line is doing a great job of protecting Andrew Luck. PICK: Colts -7.5

Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) at Denver Broncos: I’d stay away from this one given the trap nature. Believe it or not, Denver (7th) ranks just one spot behind Pittsburgh (6th) in DVOA. But since I have to make a pick here, I’ll lean with the Steelers. I know they barely won at home against Jacksonville last week but I just can’t put my trust in Case Keenum. PICK: Steelers -3

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (-3): Kirk Cousins doesn’t win big games against good teams. The Packers aren’t exactly a good team, so he has that going for him, but Aaron Rodgers obviously has the ability to elevate Green Bay. I’d rather count on Rodgers than Cousins. Take the points. PICK: Packers +3

Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans (-4): The Titans are a hard team to figure out on a week-to-week basis. It’s difficult to know what you’re going to get out of them. The Texans, meanwhile, are on a hot streak but a lot of games have been won by the skin of their teeth. In other words, Houston’s not exactly a juggernaut. I’ll reluctantly take them here because I trust Tennessee less. PICK: Texans -4