Eagles enter Week 12 game against Giants as significant home favorites

The Philadelphia Eagles and New York Giants are entering their Week 12 matchup from different situations.

The Eagles have lost their last two games coming out of their Week 9 bye. They suffered a 27-20 defeat at home to the Dallas Cowboys before getting their doors blown off by Saints in New Orleans, 48-7.

The Giants, meanwhile, have won their last two games coming out of their Week 9 bye. They managed to beat the San Francisco 49ers on the road before extending their winning streak to two games against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at home.

Despite the road team seemingly having the momentum heading into this week’s matchup, however, it’s the home team that enters the game as significant favorites. SB Nation’s NFL odds page shows the Eagles are favored by as many as seven points against the G-Men. That sure seems like a big spread for a struggling Philly team.

Then again, the Eagles did beat the Giants comfortably back in Week 6. And while New York has won two games in a row, they haven’t exactly been the most impressive victories. The Giants managed to beat Nick Mullens’ 49ers by a mere four points. Then they beat the Buccaneers, who benched starting quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick mid-game, by only three points. It’s hardly like 3-7 Giants have been looking like some juggernaut.

But the Eagles stink as well. Philadelphia ranks 23rd in DVOA and 20th in point differential. By comparison, the Giants are 21st and 26th, respectively. And it’s not like the Eagles have some great home field advantage to fall back on anymore. The Eagles have lost three straight at Lincoln Financial Field. Furthermore, the Giants are 8-4 against the spread since the beginning of the 2017 season. That’s good for the fifth best percentage in the league.

It’s entirely possible the Eagles beat the Giants on Sunday. But to bet they’re just going to dominate New York seems like irrational confidence. If I was betting on this line, I’d take the points.