NFL Picks Against the Spread 2018: Week 11 Games

Before the eleventh Sunday of the 2018 NFL regular season kicks off, let’s have some fun by taking a look at the spreads for today’s games. (Click here for NFL Week 11 picks without regard to the spread.)

Here are suggestions when trying to beat the odds. You can find all of today’s NFL betting lines and over/unders via SB Nation. My season record so far is 65-80-3 after going 8-6 last week.

NFL Week 11 Games

Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-5.5): Joe Flacco is out and Lamar Jackson is starting for the Ravens. It’s feasible that Jackson could be an upgrade on Flacco. It’s also possible the 21-year-old quarterback could go through some rookie struggles. I’d stay away from this line. But since I have to make a pick, I’ll roll with the Ravens because Cincy has been so bad lately. PICK: Ravens -5.5

Carolina Panthers (-4.5) at Detroit Lions: Another line I’d stay away from since it’s hard to fully trust the Panthers. At the same time, the Lions are 29th in DVOA. So I’ll go with Carolina here. PICK: Panthers -4.5

Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (-1.5): The Titans are a weird team. As the SB Nation mothership phrased it: “No team has allowed fewer points than Tennessee, but only four teams have had more difficulty getting points on the scoreboard.” I think Mike Vrabel might be a good coach. But right now I like Frank Reich’s side more. PICK: Colts -1.5

Dallas Cowboys at Atlanta Falcons (-3): The Cowboys still looked bad while beating Philly last week. They’re not a good team. The Falcons aren’t good, either, but they’re more dangerous than Dallas when they’re playing at their best. PICK: Falcons -3

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New York Giants (-2.5): Todd Monken is back to calling plays for the Bucs so they have a chance to win on Sunday now. I think the Giants actually have a chance to win two in a row here but I’ll take the points in this situation. PICK: Buccaneers +2.5

Houston Texans (-3) at Washington Redskins: Houston has won six in a row, yes, but they’ve been very close wins over some bad teams. I just don’t think they’re as good as their record indicates. Washington isn’t good, either, but I like them as a home dog. PICK: Washington +3

Pittsburgh Steelers (-6) at Jacksonville Jaguars: The Steelers are red hot and the Jaguars are red not. PICK: Steelers -6

Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers (-7): The Bolts have proved they’re legit. Case Keenum isn’t going to be able to keep pace with Philip Rivers. PICK: Chargers -7

Oakland Raiders at Arizona Cardinals (-6): Jon Gruden’s Raiders are tanking. Losing games is the best thing for them at this point. PICK: Cardinals -6

Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans Saints (-7.5): Can’t see the Eagles keeping pacing with the Saints’ top scoring offense. It’s just too hard to trust the reigning Super Bowl champs. PICK: Saints -7.5

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (-2.5): Interesting NFC North battle. People are going to be tempted to take the Vikings because they trust Kirk Cousins more than Michell Trubisky. I get it, but Cousins rarely leads his team to victory against good teams. PICK: Bears -2.5

Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Rams (-3.5): Andy Reid is a better head coach than Sean McVay and Pat Mahomes is a better quarterback than Jared Goff. Just need to avoid the vintage Andy letdown game. PICK: Chiefs +3.5