Fantasy Football NFL Week 5: Studs, Duds, Sleepers, & Busts

Welcome to the Week 4 Edition of Studs, Duds, Sleepers, & Busts. Before we get to this weeks content, lets take a quick look back to last week:

Picks of the Week:

RB Matt Breida, - 7 pts, t-27th

QB Baker Mayfield, 19 pts, 18th

Come at me, bro.

Fail of the Week:

QB Ryan Tannehill, MIA - 3 pts, t-31st

Yeah... So gotta love when my projected Stud gets pulled in the 4th quarter after the worst performance of his career. Lesson learned, Mr. Tannehill. #BringBackSmokinJay

Year to Date Accuracy:

Week 4 Accuracy: 6 of 12 correct (50.0%)

Season Accuracy: 20 of 47 correct (42.6%)

Still trying to recover from a rough week 3, but batting 0.500 on the week ain’t so bad.

Stud:

A highly favored fantasy player (ranked as a ‘good play’) who will finish the week as a ‘good play’. (Last week: 0 of 3 correct)

Todd Gurley, RB - Los Angeles Rams (Projected Points: 18.0 - Positional Rank: 1st)

George Kittle, TE - San Francisco 49ers (5.4 - 6th)

Antonio Brown, WR - Pittsburgh Steelers (16.6 - 1st)

No surprises with Gurley and AB. Gurley is playing a hapless Seattle Seahawks team that just lost Earl Thomas. Once the Rams establish a big lead, Gurley will be fed the ball often for the remainder of the game. Antonio Brown is facing an Atlanta Team that seems to enjoy being in shootouts (Note: it would be wise to enter some DFS games this weekend with HEAVY ATL/PIT game stacks) which should result in a good day. Kittle, after having a few down weeks to start the year, has begun to look like a stud once again. In standard leagues, Kittle trails only Travis Kelce and Jared Cook in overall fantasy points.

Dud:

A highly started player (projected > 4% ownership on DraftKings) who will finish the week as a ‘poor play’. (Last week: 3 of 3 correct)

Rob Gronkowski, TE - New England Patriots (13.3 - 11th)

Tyreek Hill, WR - Kansas City Chiefs (10.1 - 10th)

Matt Ryan, QB - Atlanta Falcons (19.9 - 8th)

No matter how injured Gronk is, as long as he is on the field, there is a chance he puts up ridiculous numbers. This week, however, Gronk could be used sparingly in what might end up being a blowout against the Colts. Hill is, by nature, a sporadic fantasy player, and this week could be a tough one for him as he welcomes AJ Bouye and Jalen Ramsey. Matt Ryan should benefit from the high scoring Steelers and Falcons game, but there are even better match ups this week at the QB position.

Sleeper:

A player who is not started often (projected < 4% ownership on DraftKings) but will finish the week as a ‘good play’. (Last week: 1 of 3 correct)

Carlos Hyde, RB - Cleveland Browns (11.0 - 12th)

Jared Goff, QB - Los Angeles Rams (18.3 - 10th)

Jay Ajayi, RB - Philadelphia Eagles (7.7 - 19th)

Carlos Hyde has been a top 6 running back so far in 2018 so its a little surprising to see people are still hesitant to use him. He has out touched Duke Johnson and Nick Chubb 83 to 12 and 83 to 10, respectively. Jared mother-effin-Goff has looked the part of a 1st overall selection so far this year. Like Hyde, for some reason, the fantasy community has been shying away from treating him as such. In a tasty match-up against the broken Seahawks team, Goff is gonna eat. Ajayi is a nice value play at the running back position for the Eagles who look to rebound in week 5 against the Minnesota Vikings.

Bust:

A highly ranked player (ranked as a good play) who will finish the week as a ‘poor play’. (Last week: 2 of 3 correct)

Patrick Mahomes, QB - Kansas City Chiefs (18.4 - 6th)

Jared Cook, TE - Oakland Raiders (5.9 - 3rd)

Baltimore Ravens, D/ST (8.2 - 2nd)

Mahomes is bound to regress eventually, and like Tyreek Hill above, will be facing one of the biggest challenges so far in his professional career. Jared Cook, who has been tremendous as of late, will also face a decent challenge against the Chargers who have 5 INT and have allowed 289 passing yards per game. Finally, the Ravens just seem to be over ranked this week heading Cleveland to face OROY candidate Baker Mayfield. To stay consistent with my sleeper prediction of Carlos Hyde above, I don’t see the Ravens being a top 6 D this week.

*Note: All rankings are via Pro Football Focus Standard Rankings as of 10/3 and the projected DFS starting percentage is via their DraftKings Ownership Projection. I’ve found that the Yahoo and ESPN ‘% Starting’ Metric is not very reliable until Sunday morning, but I think this post is more valuable to you before the Thursday night game.

As always, I cannot cover every situation in one article so please get at me on Twitter or in the comments below with your specific roster questions and I’d be glad to offer my thoughts on your situation.