History suggests Eagles not doomed after 2-2 start

It’s only reasonable to be concerned about the outlook of the 2018 Philadelphia Eagles after the team’s disappointing loss to the Tennessee Titans in Week 4.

This Eagles team has some real issues. The secondary is struggling. The offensive line is failing to adequately protect Carson Wentz. And so on.

But if history is any indication, it IS too early to panic.

Let’s look back at the last 10 Eagles seasons to put the team’s current 2-2 record in context.

Starting 3-1 is obviously better than starting 2-2, but it hasn’t always been a great indicator of future success. The Eagles failed to make the playoffs in three out of their last four 3-1 starts. Two of those four seasons failed to produce winning records; the Eagles went 7-9 in 2016 and just 4-12 in 2012.

Starting out 2-2, meanwhile, has hardly been a death knell for the Eagles. Here’s a look at how Philadelphia has fared in those situations dating back to the expansion of 16 game seasons in 1978.

The Eagles averaged 9.8 wins in their last eight seasons starting out at 2-2. They failed to make the playoffs only once and they made it one game away from the Super Bowl in three of those years.

That’s probably a lot more encouraging than you would’ve guessed, right?

Of course, just because it’s mostly worked out for the Eagles in the past doesn’t mean it’s going to play out the same way this year. Football Outsiders’ model only gives the Eagles a 41.2% chance to make the playoffs this season. This old chart from FiveThirtyEight shows 2-2 teams generally have a 36% chance of making the post-season. That figure is significantly worse than the 63% of 3-1 teams who make it to January.

But while there’s reason to be concerned about the 2018 Eagles, there’s also room for optimism. Wentz is healthy and is coming off one of the best games of his career. The Eagles still have six games at Lincoln Financial Field this year, which is significant since they have the best home record in the NFL from the beginning of the 2016 season (17-3).

So, it’s like I said earlier. No need to totally freak out just yet.