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NFL Picks Against the Spread 2018: Week 6 Games

Here are some suggestions when trying to beat the odds.

Dallas Cowboys v Atlanta Falcons Photo by Scott Cunningham/Getty Images

Before the sixth Sunday of the 2018 NFL regular season kicks off, let’s have some fun by taking a look at the spreads for today’s games. (Click here for NFL Week 6 picks without regard to the spread.)

Here are suggestions when trying to beat the odds. You can find all of today’s NFL betting lines and over/unders via SB Nation. My season record so far is 29-48-1 after going 7-8 last week. I really could use a hot streak here. I’ll note once again that I’m doing much better in straight up picks this year.

NFL Week 6 Games

Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings (-10.5): The Cards look better with Josh Rosen than Sam Bradford but they’re still really bad. Minnesota’s not going to be susceptible to another letdown loss like they had in the Buffalo game earlier this year. Vikings win comfortably. PICK: Vikings -10.5

Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans (-10): Don’t love to hear that Deshaun Watson is dealing with a chest injury while playing behind a porous offensive line. Still probably a better option than Josh Allen, though. Houston’s defense should be able to stop the run. That’ll make life harder on Allen. I’ll go with the home team here but I’d stay away from this game. PICK: Texans -10

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons (-3): We should have a shootout on our hands here. Two good offenses and two really bad defenses. I’m not a big Jameis Winston believer so his return doesn’t do a ton for me. Atlanta is banged up but I still think they’re better than their 1-4 record indicates. PICK: Falcons -3

Carolina Panthers (-1.5) at Washington Redskins: Carolina almost ended up losing to a very bad Giants team, so I don’t know how much I trust them, but I don’t love taking Washington after traveling home on a short week. PICK: Panthers -1.5

Indianapolis Colts at New York Jets (-2): The Colts are just so banged up. They give good effort under Frank Reich but I can’t take Indy here. Give me the J-E-T-S who played well against Denver last week. PICK: Jets -2

Pittsburgh Steelers (-1.5) at Cincinnati Bengals: Pittsburgh’s offense came to life last week. Ben Roethlisberger isn’t as effective on the road, however. The Bengals have looked like the best team in the AFC North this season and I think that’ll continue. I like them getting points at home. PICK: Bengals +1.5

Los Angeles Chargers at Cleveland Browns (-1.5): Don’t look now but the Bolts are a top five team in DVOA. I like what the Browns have shown but I still think LA is the better overall team. Can’t wait to inevitably regret believing in the Chargers once again. PICK: Chargers +1.5

Chicago Bears (-4) at Miami Dolphins: Chicago’s coming off a bye. The Dolphins are coming off a confusing loss where they led 17-0 and then lost 27-17. Still not really sold on Mitchell Trubisky but that Chicago defense is for real. PICK: Bears -4

Seattle Seahawks (-3) at Oakland Raiders: The Seahawks’ offense should be able to have some success against a leaky Raiders defense. I just don’t see any reason to put your faith in Jon Gruden. PICK: Seahawks -3

Los Angeles Rams (-7) at Denver Broncos: The Broncos began their season with two wins by a combined four points and have since dropped three games in a row. They’re not good. The Rams, meanwhile, are definitely good. PICK: Rams -7

Baltimore Ravens (-3) at Tennessee Titans: The Ravens lost to Cleveland last week while the Titans lost to Buffalo. Not really sure what to make of these 3-2 teams. The analytics favor the road team in this one. Baltimore ranks sixth in DVOA while Tennessee is 20th. Going with this strategy helped me pick Houston over Dallas last week, so I’ll give it another shot. PICK: Ravens -3

Jacksonville Jaguars (-3) at Dallas Cowboys: Blake Bortles versus Dak Prescott is a battle of two bad quarterbacks. This could be a defensive struggle. If that’s the case, Jacksonville should have the edge because their defense is better. PICK: Jaguars -3

Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots (-3.5): Game of the week. The undefeated Chiefs are underdogs in this one despite being undefeated. There’s a reason for that. The Pats are still very much a force to be reckoned with, especially playing home at Gillette Stadium. Andy Reid is due for a classic Andy Reid letdown game at some point and this could be it. He’s 2-5 all-time against Bill Belichick. PICK: Patriots -3

San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers (-9.5): Aaron Rodgers suffering a “setback” raises some cause for concern but a less than 100% Rodgers is still far out in front of a fully healthy C.J. Beathard. I feel comfortable picking the Packers to win by at least 10 in Lambeau. PICK: Packers -9.5

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