So if any of you follow me on Twitter, you will know that I've been working on Philadelphia Eagles statistics projections for a little while. After the Eagles roster cuts were made, I could finally update my fancy spreadsheet and get my final Eagles projections out for this upcoming season.
I used a wonderful projection sheet by @JustinFreeman18 which you can get yourself here by donating just $10 to charity. Justin has put in a huge amount of work on this spreadsheet which I massively appreciate. For an example of how the spreadsheet works, for Alshon Jeffery I have to enter in the % of targets he will receive, the yards per reception, the reception TD % and the catch rate %. Based on how many times I have the Eagles throwing, the spreadsheet will then work out Jeffery's stats for me. I am not just entering in these numbers randomly either, Justin provides every player's history over the past 4 seasons so I can see Alshon Jeffery's catch rate % over the past 4 seasons.
These projections are based on the Eagles throwing 600 passes and rushing 415 times by the way. I'm predicting a very pass first offense by the Eagles. Anyway, enough of me talking, here are my projections!
I will also let you see my assumptions, I have nothing to hide!
Some thoughts on my projections:
- Before you complain about whoever not having enough receiving yards, keep in mind I already have Wentz throwing for a huge 4,318 yards here! So if you think someone should have more yards, you might want to take it away from someone unless you think Wentz is going to go completely nuts this year.
- I am Zach Ertz's biggest fan, but I don't foresee a huge statistical jump in his play. I think he will catch more touchdowns, but I would be surprised if he breaks 900 yards for the first time because the Eagles have added so many weapons. However, I expect his yards will be more spread out this year and not come only at the end of the season.
- I can't figure out the Eagles running game. Everyone seems to think Smallwood will gain more far yards than Blount but I'm still a little skeptical. Smallwood still needs to show me he can pass protect and stay healthy before I predict a big season for him.
- I think the hype around Agholor is legit but I still don't see him having a monster statistical season because of the number of weapons the Eagles have. I may actually be overrating Agholor here, I could see Torrey Smith getting a few more yards and stealing more from Agholor.
- Lastly, I only did this for a bit of fun but it really made me realize how many weapons the Eagles have. Although Alshon, Sproles and Ertz might be the only 'really good' weapons, the Eagles do have a lot of guys who can make plays. I think there will be good players who have good seasons but don't end up with great stats.
Let me know what you think of this, comment below what you would change and feel free to ask me any questions. Lastly, if you want some more detail on these projections, I'll be discussing them on the next episode of my podcast this week sometime.