Before the third Sunday of the 2017 NFL regular season kicks off, let’s have some fun by taking a look at the spreads for today’s games. (Click here for NFL Week 3 picks without regard to the spread.)
Here are suggestions when trying to beat the odds. You can find all of today’s NFL betting lines and more via SB Nation. My regular season record after the second week is 15-12-1. Let’s get to the picks.
NFL Week 3 Games
Lots of road favorites this week!
Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars: This game marks the first London matchup of the 2017 season. 3.5 points feels low to me for the Ravens considering this is a neutral site game. I’d expect them to be favored by that amount if this game was in Jacksonville. The Ravens’ defense is pretty legit. The Jags still looked very much like the Jags in Week 2. PICK: Ravens -3.5
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-6): This is very much a game the Eagles should win. On paper, at least. Philly’s pass rush will prove problematic for the Giants’ offensive line. The Eagles played really well at home in 2016. I don’t see why that trend wouldn’t continue in Philadelphia’s 2017 home opener. The Giants are banged up and playing on a short week. The Eagles are also dealing with some injury issues, and might be starting a new left guard, but the Giants are so bad it might not matter. Eagles win. PICK: Eagles -6
Houston Texans at New England Patriots (-14): Really tough spot for Deshaun Watson in his second NFL start. After losing in Week 1, the Patriots returned to form in Week 2. Hard to bet against New England here. PICK: Patriots -14
Atlanta Falcons (-3) at Detroit Lions: This tilt has the potential to be one of the better matchups on Sunday. Both teams are undefeated and have the ability to put up points. I’m tempted to take the Lions with the points, but Atlanta’s offense is just so good that it’s hard not to take them. I typically don’t like taking the Falcons on the road but playing in a dome makes me feel a little better about them. PICK: Falcons -3
Denver Broncos (-3.5) at Buffalo Bills: The Bills aren’t good. They only beat the Jets by nine points in Week 1. Then they managed to score three points in Week 2. Denver’s defense is playing great and Trevor Siemian doesn’t look too shabby. The Broncos are the easy call. PICK: Broncos -3.5
Pittsburgh Steelers (-7.5) at Chicago Bears: While I don’t think the Bears are very good, I’m a little skeptical of picking the Steelers on the road. Ben Roethlisberger’s home/road splits are dramatically different. Chicago hung in tough with Atlanta in Week 1; they only lost by six. I don’t like the Bears to win but they might be able to cover. I’m regrettably taking the points. PICK: Bears +7.5
Miami Dolphins (-6.5) at New York Jets: The Jets are awful. The Dolphins actually don’t look bad. Miami has won 10 out of their last 12 regular season games. Miami gets it done. PICK: Dolphins -6.5
Cleveland Browns (-1) at Indianapolis Colts: The Browns are road favorites! They’re favored in a game for the first time in two years! Madness. I think I’m crazy enough to take Cleveland. Indy took the Cardinals to overtime in Week 2, but I still they’re pretty awful. This is a game I’d recommend staying away from. But since that’s not an option for me, I’ll go with the favorites. PICK: Browns -1
New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers (-6): Here’s another game I wouldn’t care to bet on. These are two pretty bad teams. New Orleans’ defense is just awful (but what’s new). Cam Newton and the Panthers’ offense hasn’t looked great. Maybe the Panthers will be able to get back on track against the Saints. The only problem is that Carolina lost their yearly leading receiver, Greg Olsen, due to injury. I think this game could be close. I don’t trust the Panthers enough to take them by six. PICK: Saints +6
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3) at Minnesota Vikings: Case Keenum is terrible. It was only one game but the Buccaneers look like they’re legit. Tampa Bay has some serious offensive firepower. PICK: Buccaneers -3
Seattle Seahawks at Tennessee Titans (-3): This is a 50/50 game for me. The Seahawks’ offensive line is terrible but they have a good defense. The Titans have shown some promise but Marcus Mariota has had some issues. Since I’m not sure how I feel about this one, I’m tempted to take the points. For as much as everyone wants to write off Seattle, their defense could still come away with some turnover(s) to make the difference in this one. PICK: Seahawks +3
Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5) at Los Angeles Chargers: The Chiefs are arguably the best team in the league. I’d argue the Chargers are the best 0-2 team in the league. L.A. should give KC a good fight. I still believe the Bolts’ lack of homefield advantage hurts them. I’ll go with Andy Reid’s team. PICK: Chiefs -3.5
Oakland Raiders (-3.5) at Washington Redskins: Despite beating the mighty Rams in Los Angeles, I still don’t think Washington is great or anything. The Raiders, meanwhile, have a lot of offensive weapons and Khalil Mack will be able to pressure Kirk Cousins. Give me the Rrrrrrrrrrrrrraiders. PICK: Raiders -3.5
Dallas Cowboys (-3.5) at Arizona Cardinals: My theory with picking Cowboys games lately is that I pick them to win. Either I prove to be correct (like in Week 1) or I’m wrong (like in Week 2) but that doesn’t matter because they lost and got blown out. So I’ll take the Cowboys here again. Arizona hasn’t looked so great so it’s hard to feel great about taking them. The Cardinals’ home field advantage does give them a chance in this one, however.